The Frontiers of Applied Demography

519 Pages·2017·21.13 MB·English

by  David A. Swanson (eds.)

Applied Demography Series 9
David A. Swanson Editor
The Frontiers
of Applied
Demography
Applied Demography Series
Volume 9
Series Editor
David A. Swanson
The field of applied demography is largely driven by the quest for the knowledge
required by clients, both in public and private sectors, to make good decisions
withintimeandcostsconstraints.Thebookseries,AppliedDemography,providesa
forumforillustratinganddiscussingtheuseofdemographicmethods,concepts,and
perspectivesinawiderangeofsettings—business,government,education,law,and
public policy—as well as the influence of these settings on demographic methods,
concepts,andperspectives.Thebookswithintheseriescanbeusedasresourcesfor
practitionersandasmaterialsservingascasestudiesforpedagogicaluses.
Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/8838
David A. Swanson
Editor
The Frontiers of Applied
Demography
Editor
DavidA.Swanson
DepartmentofSociology
UniversityofCaliforniaRiverside
Riverside,CA,USA
ISSN2352-376X ISSN2352-3778 (electronic)
AppliedDemographySeries
ISBN978-3-319-43327-1 ISBN978-3-319-43329-5 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-43329-5
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016957789
©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2017
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Foreword
Applieddemographyencompassesadiversesetofendeavorsthatdrawondemog-
raphers’ specialized knowledge, technical skills, and extensive familiarity with
relevant data sources. These proficiencies have enabled demographers to address
anever-widerarrayofbusinessandpublicsectorconcerns.The23chaptersahead
demonstrate the expanding scope and advancing frontiers of endeavor by applied
demographersworldwide.
Applieddemographyisdrivenbypracticalproblems;itisnotatheory-directed
body of knowledge. The wide-ranging concerns addressed in the chapters ahead
illustrate the field’s scope and emphases. Prominent among those emphases are
shaping decisions attuned to a stubbornly uncertain future that resists precise
prediction, strengthening the understanding of demographic influences on con-
sumerbehaviorandservicedemands,andevaluatingthequalityofthedataapplied
demographersroutinelyusesoastobetterunderstandandskirttheirlimitations.
“Frontiers”canbethoughtofasouterlimitsinafieldofendeavor,fromwhich
opportunities yet to be realized can be perceived. The varied contributions ahead
definethreesuchfrontiers:(1)systematicevaluationsofhowthestatusquoevolves,
(2)alternativeposturesforaccommodatingthefuture,and(3)emergingdataneeds
presentedbythenewproblemsapplieddemographersarenowaddressing.
This wide-ranging collection of applications will enjoy a broad and varied
readership extending well beyond demographers themselves. It will include ana-
lysts gauging the size and makeup of consumer markets at different geographic
scalesorstagesofevolution,municipalplannersresponsiblefordesigningpolicies
to meet local service demands, analysts framing strategic business decisions with
reference to future demographic contexts, economic forecasters concerned with
alternative future scenarios of how the demographic status quo might unfold, and
government officials heading agencies that collect public data through a periodic
nationalcensusorongoingsurveys.
Inwhatfollows,Iofferanoverviewofhowthesechaptersalignwiththeabove
concerns,tohelpdirectreaderstothosechapterslikelytobeofgreatestinterest.
v
vi Foreword
Measuring the Present
The production of ever-better “official” current estimates of population size and
composition addresses the ongoing needs of national, regional, and local govern-
ments. Those estimates figure planning decisions and various formulas for trans-
ferringresourcesfromhigherlevelsofgovernmenttolowerones.
Traditional censuses are among the largest and costliest statistical activities
undertaken by governments and national statistics offices. Chapter 14 examines
the prospects for future cost savings as Canada and the United States incorporate
technologicaladvancementsintocensusmethodologies.
In the past decade, all 50 US states and outlying territories have developed
longitudinaladministrativerecordsdatabases,whichareessentiallypartialpopula-
tionregisters.Chapter11describestheemergenceoftheseStateLongitudinalData
Systemsandprovidesaroadmapforfutureresearchpossibilities.
Chapter13explorestheutilityoflifetimeUSmigrationmeasures,whichlinkan
individual’s current place of residence with place of birth. These two building
blocks show a basic picture: where a person began the musical game of life and
wherethatpersonnowresides,oncethemusichasstopped.Theanalysisoflifetime
migrationis a useful complementtomore detailed, shorter-termmeasures. It pro-
vides a long-term perspective on how each state acquired its distinctive mix of
populationfromdifferentgeographicorigins.Theseinsightstoastate’spopulation
historycanprovideusefulinputintopolicyandprogramplanning.
Chapter 20 introduces a new approach to analyzing population change over
small areas. It makes use of a combined polygon overlay and cell smoothing
procedure to derive estimates of population counts for a 1km grid to facilitate
assessmentofchange throughtime.Populationsurfacesderivedinthisway make
themostoftheavailableinformation,accordingtotheauthor,andprovideasound
basisfromwhichtoexplorelonger-termchangeoververysmallareas.
Chapter 9 examines the meaning of reported race among different Hispanic
groups. It highlights the underlying complexity of Americans’ racial and ethnic
self-identificationandadvancestheunderstandingoftheresponsesthatcensusand
survey questions elicit from persons of Hispanic origin. The US Census Bureau
collectsinformationconcerningraceandHispanicoriginusingtwoseparateques-
tions.Hispanicsmayreportanyraceorcombinationofraces.Mostselectaspecific
race,butsomeHispanicsreportanationality,agroup,orageneralcategoryastheir
“race.”
Envisioning and Anticipating the Future
No view of the future can be anything more than an “informed guess.” Many
non-demographers seek precisely that: an informed guess about how the demo-
graphic status quo may evolve. Formulating alternative scenarios of the future is
Foreword vii
one way to incorporate key demographic contingencies shaping the future, and
applieddemographersarewellsituatedtoofferobjectiveinputs.
Chapter 1 illustrates these possibilities. Both China and India have undergone
substantial consumer market expansion. Each, however, is following a distinctive
demographic pathway forward into the future. This chapter examines the macro
demographic trends behind those pathways and spots demographic contingencies
on the horizon. Its insights offer a useful point of departure for envisioning
alternativescenariosofhowproductivity,householdpurchasingpower,anddiscre-
tionaryspendingmayripeninotherdevelopingcountrycontexts.
PopulationaginginEnglandiscoveredinChap.2.Here,theauthorsdrilldown
intothecomponentsthatarepresumedtocauseburdensonhealth-caresystemsdue
toanagingpopulation.Itdoesthisbyemployingmicro-simulationtoexaminethe
healthimpactsoftotalpopulationchange,populationaging,changingethnicmixof
thepopulation,andtrendsintheage-specificincidenceofdisease.Theresults are
thenusedtoprojectthefuturewithimplicationsnotonlyforEnglandasawholebut
alsoforlocalareas.
Alternative scenarios are no less relevant for understanding demographic con-
tingenciesatstateandlocallevels.Applieddemographersoftenarecalleduponto
estimatehowaproposedchangetopublicpolicywouldaffectfuturedemandfora
particularbenefitorservice.Chapter3illustratesthisproblemviaacasestudyofa
long-standing program to assist military veterans and their dependents to obtain
college degrees. The authors evaluated alternative proposals for modifying eligi-
bility requirements based on length of military service. Their analysis illustrates
howalternativescenarioshelptouncoverdisparateimpactsimposedbyparticular
proposals.
Chapter 16 offers a further illustration of how scenarios serve planners’ needs.
Integrated population, housing, and jobs forecasts involve describing not a single
futurebutavarietyofscenarios,toreflectboththeuncertaintyaboutthedirectionof
recenttrendsandtheimpactofplanners’andpoliticians’consciousintenttoaltera
trend.Theapproachdescribedhereusesstandarddemographicforecastingmethods
toforesee the local demandfor housing andemploymentembodied inthe current
population’s growth and age structure. It then calculates the impact on that popu-
lationofalternativeplansforsupplyofhousingoremployment.
Population projection is narrowlyconstrued as the science of dissecting demo-
graphicchangeintoitsconstituentprocessesandastheartofmaking informative
assumptions about the future course of those processes. Projections become fore-
casts only intheeye ofthebeholder,who adoptstheir assumptionsasbeingmost
probable. Several chapters illustrate the central role of population projections in
guiding decision-making and how applied demographers are advancing both the
scienceandtheartofprojection.
Projections of future population play an important role in supporting planning
forthefutureprovisionofservicesandinfrastructure,forbudgetaryallocation,and
for staffing publicly provided services. Chapter 5 offers a particular illustration:
viii Foreword
anticipatingthefuturedemandforAustralia’scriminalcourtservicesandfacilities
andthefutureneedforrelatedstaff,suchasjudgesandmagistrates.Crimeratesin
Australia differ widely between gender, age, and geographic area. The author
derives court appearance rates by age, sex, and local area based on projected
changes in the size, composition and geographical distribution of the population,
andthevolumeandgeospatialdimensionsofcrime-relatedcourtserviceprovision.
Several chapters illustrate ongoing advances in evaluating the accuracy of
population projections. Chapter 7 reports an effort to improve the accuracy of
estimates and forecasts of the very elderly population of Australia—persons aged
85+.Itdevelopsprobabilisticforecaststo2051bysexandsingleyearsofageupto
age 110+ using extinct cohort and survivor ratio methods. Chapter 15 describes a
detailed evaluation of Japan’s official prefectural and municipal projections.
Japan’s aging and declining population poses future concerns about the repercus-
sionsofashrinkingworking-agepopulationandanincreaseintheelderlypopula-
tion. The authors identify factors associated with the accuracy of prefectural and
municipal population projections based on a multivariate regression analysis.
Chapter 21 undertakes an evaluation of the geographically weighted regression
(GWR)methodtoestimaterelationshipsbetweenpopulationchangeandavariety
of driving factors and consider possible spatial variations of the relationships for
small-areapopulationforecastingusing1990–2010dataattheminorcivildivision
level in Wisconsin, USA. The results indicate that the GWR method provides an
elegant estimation of the relationships between population change and its driving
factors, but it underperforms traditional extrapolation projections. Chapter 23
reports a test of the accuracy of the Hamilton-Perry method for forecasting US
state populations by age. This method’s minimal data input requirements and its
capability to produce age and other characteristics in a forecast are attractive
features for use at state and county levels of geography. Chapter 22 proposes a
newmethodforsmall-areaestimationandexaminesitsefficacyandapplicabilityto
long-termpopulationprojection.
Responsibility for preparing demographic projections for local government
areas often rests with local government authorities. Australia offers a useful
model forsystematizing dataassemblyforpreparinglocalpopulation projections,
as detailed in Chap. 17. The author describes how local governments assemble
basic demographic information on dwellings and population, supplemented by
propertytaxandpropertydevelopmentdatabases,GoogleStreetView,andregular
aerial view updates to validate demographic forecasts. Chapter 18 identifies and
addressesthefurtherissuesapplieddemographersconfrontwhenforecastingindi-
vidual ethnic groups within the populations. The authors incorporate the ethnicity
dimensionintoprojectionmodelsforlocalauthoritiesintheUnitedKingdom.They
presentausefulchecklistofdesigndecisionsthatarisewhenbuildingaprojection
modelforsubnationalpopulationsclassifiedbyethnicity.
Foreword ix
Accommodating the Future
In the final analysis, forecasting rests on the faculty of human judgment, and it
requires that the future be thought about systematically—and with imagination.
Several chapters illustrate the specialized roles applied demographers play in
formulatingresponsestoforthcomingchange.
Chapter 4 identifies the causes of fire injuries and risk factors and potential
preventativemeasures.Chapter6isacasestudyofasmallislandcommunitythat
neededtomodernizeitsoutdatedfacilitydedicatedtoprovidingassistedlivingand
skilled nursing care to local elderly residents. It illustrates how applied demogra-
phers can inform important public choices by drawing attention to the long-range
implicationsofdemographicchange.Thestudydrawsuponpubliclyavailabledata
andstandarddemographicaccountingtoshowwhatthefutureholdsandthetrade-
offsitmightimpose.
Chapter12appliesnewlydevisedmeasuresofphysicalaccesstoprimaryhealth
care to reveal the hidden barriers to US health care. The question it addresses is:
Can an individual with health insurance obtain an appointment with a primary
health-carepractice?Thestudyshowsthatsimplyhavinghealthinsurancedoesnot
equate to access to primary care. It further suggests that barriers to access to
primary care (as measured here) actually are lower in rural places than in metro-
politan places. It appears that lower operating costs in rural areas, plus smaller
patient populations, may provide the financial incentives for physicians to accept
Medicaidpatients.
Evaluating Data Quality
Dataareattheheartofapplieddemography,whichiswhyitspractitionersdevote
considerable effort to understanding the limits imposed by the data they use.
Chapter 8 pursues a puzzling anomaly in historical US Census data: errors in the
coverageofBlackmalecohortssincethelate1930s.Here,theUSCensusBureau
analystsexplorethepotentialcausesofthiscoverageerroranditsconsequencesfor
theBureau’scurrentpopulationestimates.Chapter10addressesknownlimitations
in the Puerto Rico Community Survey (PRCS) due to the questionable quality of
the base population and household estimate controls for Puerto Rico. The authors
explore ways to work around these limitations and propose ways to incorporate
PRCS data in future estimates despite its known biases. Chapter 19 reports on
Australia’s efforts to use information from its census post-enumeration survey to
correct subsequent population estimates. Its results point toward ways to improve
thequalityofAustralia’spopulationestimatesfromthe2016censusandbeyond.
RAND PeterA.Morrison
Nantucket,MA
USA
e-mail:[email protected]