The Fog of Peace and War Planning: Military and Strategic Planning under Uncertainty

295 Pages·2006·2.485 MB·English

by  Monica Toft, Talbot Imlay

2
1
0
2
t
s
u
g
u
A
9
2
0
1
:
5
0
t
a

]
e
r
t
n
e
C
T
E
N
B
I
L
F
N
I
[
y
b
d
e
d
a
o
l
n
w
o
D
THE FOG OF PEACE AND WAR
PLANNING
Military and Strategic Planning Under
Uncertainty
2
1
0
2
t Given both the importance and the difficulties involved in military plan-
s
u ning, existing research has tended to focus almost exclusively on immediate
g
u pre-war and wartime periods surrounding the First and Second World Wars
A
9 and has neglected peacetime periods and the specific challenges that plan-
2 ners must face. This volume sets out to examine and analyse how
0
1 governments and military organizations planned for an uncertain and
:
5 potentially threatening future during four different peacetime periods span-
0
t ning from the beginning of the nineteenth century to the aftermath of the
a
] Second World War. For each period the authors have explored how the
e
r changing nature of military technology and hence of warfare affected mili-
t
n
e tary planning and provided a number of cases studies designed to illustrate
C
T the challenges and opportunities planners faced within their respective
E periods. Finally the book discusses what lessons can be drawn from past
N
cases of military planning.
B
I This book will be of foremost interest to students in military and strategic
L
F studies as well as military college staff, policymakers and think tank
N
I personnel.
[
y
b Talbot C. Imlay is Associate Professor in the History Department at the
d
e Université Laval in Québec, Canada. He received his PhD in History from
d
a Yale University and is the author of Facing the Second World War: Strategy,
o
nl Politics, and Economics in Britain and France, 1938–1940(2003).
w
o
D Monica Duffy Toft is Associate Professor of Public Policy at the John F.
Kennedy School of Government and the Assistant Director of the John M.
Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University. She is the author of
The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, Interests, and the Indivisibility of
Territory (2003).
Cass Series: Strategy and History
Series Editors: Colin Gray and Williamson Murray
This new series will focus on the theory and practice of strategy. Following Clausewitz,
strategy has been understood to mean the use made offorce, and the threat ofthe use offorce,
for the ends ofpolicy. This series is as interested in ideas as in historical cases ofgrand strategy
and military strategy in action. All historical periods, near and past, and even future, are of
interest. In addition to original monographs, the series will from time to time publish edited
reprints ofneglected classics as well as collections ofessays.
1.MILITARY LOGISTICS AND STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE,
Thomas M. Kane
2
1 2.STRATEGY FOR CHAOS:
0 Revolutions in Military Affairs and the Evidence ofHistory,
2
t Colin Gray
s
u
g 3.THE MYTH OF INEVITABLE US DEFEAT IN VIETNAM,
u C. Dale Walton
A
9 4.ASTROPOLITIK:
2
0 Classical Geopolitics in the Space Age,
1 Everett C. Dolman
:
5
0 5.ANGLO-AMERICAN STRATEGIC RELATIONS AND THE FAR EAST,
at 1933–1939: Imperial Crossroads,
] Greg Kennedy
e
r
nt 6.PURE STRATEGY:
Ce Power and Principle in the Space and Information Age,
T Everett C. Dolman
E
N 7.THE RED ARMY, 1918 – 1941:
B From Vanguard ofWorld Revolution to US Ally,
LI Earl F. Ziemke
F
N 8.BRITAIN AND BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE, 1942–2002,
I Jeremy Stocker
[
y
b 9.THE NATURE OF WAR IN THE INFORMATION AGE:
d Clausewitzian Future,
e
d David J.Lonsdale
a
o
l 10.STRATEGY AS SOCIAL SCIENCE:
n
w Thomas Schelling and the Nuclear Age,
o Robert Ayson
D
11.WARFIGHTING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES:
Disguising Innovation,
Terry Pierce
12.THE FOG OF PEACE AND WAR PLANNING:
Military and Strategic Planning under Uncertainty,
edited by Talbot C. Imlay and Monica Duffy Toft
13.US ARMY INTERVENTION POLICY AND ARMY INNOVATION:
From Vietnam to Iraq,
Richard Lock-Pullan
THE FOG OF PEACE
AND WAR
PLANNING
2
1 Military and Strategic Planning under
0
2
t Uncertainty
s
u
g
u
A
9
2
0
1
:
5
0
t Edited by
a
]
e
r
t
n Talbot C. Imlay
e
C
T
E and
N
B
I
L
F Monica Duffy Toft
N
I
[
y
b
d
e
d
a
o
l
n
w
o
D
2
1
0
2
t First published 2006
us by Routledge
g 2Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
u
A
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
9 by Routledge
2
0 270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016
1
: Routledge is an imprint ofthe Taylor &Francis Group, an informa business
5
0
t This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2007.
a
] “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
e
r collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.”
t
n
e ©2006 Talbot C. Imlay and Monica Duffy Toft
C
T All rights reserved. No part ofthis book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any
E form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented,
N including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system,
B without permission in writing from the publishers.
I
L
F British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
N Acatalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
I Library ofCongress Cataloging in Publication Data
[
y Acatalogrecordofthis book has been requested
b
d
e ISBN 0-203-01965-2 Master e-book ISBN
d
a
o
l
n
w ISBN 0–415–36697–6ISBN 13 978–0–415–36697–7 (pbk)
o ISBN 0–415–36696–8ISBN 13 978–0–415–36696–0 (hbk)
D
TO OUR PARENTS,
JOAN AND WILLIAM DUFFY
AND
2 CAMILLE AND ROBERT IMLAY
1
0
2
t
s
u
g
u
A
9
2
0
1
:
5
0
t
a
]
e
r
t
n
e
C
T
E
N
B
I
L
F
N
I
[
y
b
d
e
d
a
o
l
n
w
o
D
2
1
0
2
t
s
u
g
u
A
9
2
0
1
:
5
0
t
a
]
e
r
t
n
e
C
T
E
N
B
I
L
F
N
I
[
y
b
d
e
d
a
o
l
n
w
o
D
CONTENTS
Tables and Illustrations ix
Contributors x
2 Acknowledgments xii
1
0
2
t
s
u
g
u 1 Strategic and Military Planning under the Fog of Peace 1
A
9 MONICA DUFFY TOFT AND TALBOT IMLAY
2
0
1 2 Strategic and Military Planning, 1815–56 11
:
5
0 LOUISE RICHARDSON
t
a
e] 3 Russian War Planning, 1815–5626 26
r
t
n FREDERICK W. KAGAN
e
C
T 4 Austria, Prussia, and the German Confederation:
E
N the defense of Central Europe, 1815–54 50
B
I LAWRENCE SONDHAUS
L
F
N
5 Strategic and Military Planning, 1871–1914 75
I
[
y DAVID STEVENSON
b
d
e
d 6 Command Decision Making: Imperial Germany,
a
o 1871–1914 100
l
n
w HOLGER H. HERWIG
o
D
7 British Preparation for Global Naval War, 1904–14:
directed revolution or critical problem solving? 126
JOHN TETSURO SUMIDA
8 Strategic and Military Planning, 1919–39 139
TALBOT IMLAY
vii
CONTENTS
9 Catching the Wave: the RAF pursues a RMA, 1918–39 159
JOHN FERRIS
10 Transforming to Victory: the US Navy, carrier aviation, and
preparing for war in the Pacific 179
ANDREW F. KREPINEVICH, JR.
2 11 US Objectives and Plans for War with the
1 Soviet Union, 1946–54 205
0
2
t DAVID KAISER
s
u
g
u
A
12 From the Fall of France to the Force de Frappe:the remaking of
9
2 French military power, 1940–62 224
0
1 CHARLES G. COGAN
:
5
0
t
a
] 13 Conclusion: seven lessons learned about the Fog of Peace 249
e
r
t
n TALBOT IMLAY AND MONICA DUFFY TOFT
e
C
T
E Bibliography 261
N Index 270
B
I
L
F
N
I
[
y
b
d
e
d
a
o
l
n
w
o
D
viii
TABLES
10.1 Authorized US carrier construction, 1918–38 184
10.2 Naval combat aircraft inventory 185
2 10.3 USN aircraft engine horsepower, 1914–43 193
1
0 10.4 Authorized US carrier construction, 1939–41 196
2
t 10.5 USN active fleet, 1941–45 197
s
u 12.1 The size of the French army, 1940–45 227
g
u 12.2 French military budget as percentage of
A
9 national budget, 1945–55 229
2 12.3 French force levels, 1945–52 230
0
1 12.4 Size of French officer corps, 1939 and 1946 231
:
5 12.5 Location and size of French forces, 1946–52 234
0
t 12.6 Size of French forces in Indochina, 1946–54 235
a
] 12.7 Size of French forces in Algeria, 1954–58 236
e
r 12.8 Size of the French Expeditionary Corps
t
n
e in Indochina, 1949 242
C
T ILLUSTRATIONS
E
N
B
I
L
10.1 Range for USN attack aircraft 191
F
N 10.2 Payload for USN attack aircraft 192
I
[
y
b
d
e
d
a
o
l
n
w
o
D
ix