The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence

271 Pages·1996·2.54 MB·English

by  National Research Council

The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
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ge bry ins The Evaluation of Forensic DNA
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m terr Committee on DNA Forensic Science: An Update
k, not froographic CommissionN oant iDonNaAl R Feosreeanrscihc CSociuenncciel: An Update
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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eakerte National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418
ge bry ins NbeOrsT aIrCeE d:r Tawhen pfrroomjec tth teh acto uisn tchiles soufb tjheec tN oaf ttihoinsa rle Apocratd wemasy aopfp Srocvieendc besy, tthhee GNoavtieornnailn gA cBaodaermd yo fo tfh Ee nNgaintieoenrainl gR, easneda rtchhe CInosutintcuitle, owfh Moseed miceinme-.
Paall The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
s. ent In preparing its report, the committee invited people with different perspectives to present their views. Such invitation does not imply
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he oriors m LThiber eavrayl uoaf tCioonn ogfr efsosr eCnasitca lDogNinAg -eivni-dPeunbclei c/a Ctioomn mDaitttaee on DNA Forensic Science: an Update, Commission on DNA Forensic Science: an
m terr Update, National Research Council.
k, not froographic pIISn. cBclmNud. 0es-3 b0i9b-li0o5g3r9a5p-h1ical references and index.
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er bome ty 1N.a Ftioorneanls Rice gseeanrecthic sC. oIu. nNcaitli (oUna.Sl .R).e Cseoamrcmh iCssoiounn coinl (DUN.SA.) .T Ceochmnmoliottgeye ionn FDoNreAns Tice cShcnieonloceg:y a inn UFpodreantes.ic Science: an Update. II.
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original ed, and CProinptye6rd1ig 4ihn`t. 1 t1h—9e9 dU6c n2bi0yte 9tdh6 eS-2 tNa5t3aet6si4o onfa Al Amceardiceamy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
he ain First Printing, December 1996
m tret Second Printing, August 1998
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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ge bry ins Committee on DNA Forensic Science: An Update
Paall
s. ent JAMES F. CROW, Chair, University of Wisconsin, Madison
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al typhave ARNO G. MOTULSKY, University of Washington, Seattle
ginay THOMAS A. NAGYLAKI, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
orim MASATOSHI NEI, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
he ors GEORGE F. SENSABAUGH, University of California, Berkeley
m terr DAVID O. SIEGMUND, Stanford University, Stanford, California
ok, not fropographic SATdEvPisHoErN M. STIGLER, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
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er bme t VICTOR A. McKUSICK, The Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, Maryland
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he ain ERIC A. FISCHER, Study Director
m tret LEE R. PAULSON, Senior Staff Officer
oe MIRON L. STRAF, Senior Staff Officer
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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ge bry ins Commission on DNA Forensic Science: An Update
Paall
s. ent THOMAS D. POLLARD, Chair, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
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orim PAUL GILMAN, Executive Director
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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ge bry ins Preface
Paall
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al typhave DNA analysis promises to be the most important tool for human identification since Francis Galton developed the use of
originmay fingerprints for that purpose. We can confidently predict that, in the not-distant future, persons as closely related as brothers
m the errors warirlilv bede , raonudti ntheely w dinisdtisn ogfu cisohnetdro, vaenrds yD hNaAve pnrootf ibleese nw sitlill lbeed .a Hs efunlcley tahcics erpetpeodr ta.s fingerprints now are. But that time has not yet
k, not froographic wthaast dtToohouekb tt,en cobh onathciq cauoseu tnfoot rtoh Dfe NpreoApsr spoibrdoluefci lisibnuigbli dtfyiiv rasistn idaop nrpe eoliafa rbetihdlei ta ybp oooufp tut hl1ae0t i moyneea.t hrDso daesgs poai,nt ead n tadhs e tth ope o tshtueebn ajteipacplt r oipspo rswitaieltlre ynooefsu stn hgoe.f Istneimc thhpnelii qsetuaircel, y c tadhlaecyruesl a twthioeenrrees
op serious reservations about its actual use.
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he ain and unnecessarily conservative, as not taking population genetic theory into account, and as being subject to misuse.
m tret In April 1993, Judge William Sessions, then the Director of the FBI, requested
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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us PREFACE vi
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eakerte that the NRC do a follow-up study to resolve the controversy and to answer other questions that recent empirical work
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Paall members were named in August 1994, and the first meeting was held in September of that year. Subsequent meetings were
s. ent held in November and in January and March of 1995. The main recommendations were agreed on and several revisions of a
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al typhave plaobpourlaattoiroyn asnudb dchivaiisni oonf caunsdt opdryo paonsde reccaolcmumlateinndg pprroocceedduurreess toth mati ntiamkeiz eit thinetmo (aCchcoaputnetr (3C).h aWptee rth 4en). aWdder eassls oth ec oqnuseisdteior nt hoef
ginay statistical interpretation of DNA evidence, including statistical problems associated with the use of existing databases
orim (Chapter 5). Finally, we include a review of DNA in the courts since the 1992 report (Chapter 6).
he ors Specific recommendations are numbered and given at the ends of the chapters and are reproduced in the Executive
m terr Summary and Overview. Other statements in the text are not intended to have the force of formal recommendations, although
k, not froographic wthea td aoTr ehm insao krtee d paios ncrtuu msiss betdehr ea orrefe ssnuueglittg hoeesfr t imeonnadsno.y rW seexed c anhgoarrne greee jwse cibtthye d sp.ohmoen es,t aftaexm, eanntds oef- mthaei l1 a9m92o nregp tohret ainndd idviisdaugarle ec owmitmh iotttehee rms.e Smtabteerms eanntds
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paso of these are listed at the end of the report, but the list is far from complete. We are indebted to all. We particularly thank those
original ed, and wSchioen tFcoieon kaF nopcuainratdl iasntu iopoupnro, rtphtu efbo Nlri cat htmiiosen esattliu nIdgny so twintu aNste opsv rooefmv Hibdeeeard l 1tbh8y,, a1tnh9de9 4Nth.aet iDoenpaal rItnmsteintut toef o Ef nJeursgtyic.e, the State Justice Institute, the National
he ain This is a period of rapid progress in developing and testing new methods of DNA analysis and of rapid increase in the
om te ret size and diversity of databases. The information that has accumulated since the 1992 report permits us to be more confident
ated frnnot b orefc oomurm reencodmatimonens dsahtoiounlds. leCaodu trots mhuacvhe gsreeeant eers atigmreaetemse onft ammaotcnhg pthroe bvaabriiloituys reasntigminagte so.v Ie rh asveev enroa l ilolurdsieorns tohfa tm oaugrn riteupdoer.t Owuilrl
es creer, ca eliminate the controversy; remaining uncertainties
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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us PREFACE vii
s are trd. Plea
eakerte and the adversary system in the courts guarantee its continuance. But I hope that we have substantially narrowed the range of
ge bry ins acceptable differences.
s. Paentall JAMES F. CROW
ed CHAIRMAN
esetting filbeen acci COMMITTEE ON DNA FORENSIC SCIENCE: AN UPDATE
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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Paall
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ginay The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit. self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged
orim in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general
he ors welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it
m terr to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy
k, not froographic of ScTiehnec eNs.ational Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of
ooyp Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its
er bme t members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The
apo National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages
original ped, and s ethdeu cNaatitoionn aaln dA creasdeeamrcyh o, fa Endn grienceoegrninizge.s the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of
he ain The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of
m tret eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The
oe Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser
ated frnnot b tKoe nthnee thfe Id.e Srahli ngeo ivse prrnemsiednetn ta onfd ,t huep Ionns tiittust eo wofn M ineditiicaitnivee., to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr.
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es crer, c The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad
L filwev community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal
XMho government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the
m g, principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing
ed fromattin sbeyr vbioctehs Atoc athdee mgioevse arnnmd ethnet, Itnhset iptuutbel iocf, Manedd itchien es.c iDenr.t iBfircu caen dA elbnegritnse aenridn gD cr.o Wmmilluianmiti eAs.. TWhuel fC aoruen cchila iirsm aadnm ainndis tienrteedri mjo ivnitclye
en recomposg-specific forn. chawirmwawn.,n raestpioenctaivl-ealyc,a odfe tmhei eNsa.toiorngal Research Council.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html
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us CONTENTS ix
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ge bry ins Contents
Paall
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originmay Executive Summary 1
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m terr Overview 9
k, not froographic IODnuNtrroA Ad Tusscyitpgioinnnmg,,ent, 11019
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original ed, and DMNatAch Pinrogf ailnindg B,inning of VNTRs, 1158
he ain Allele (Bin) Frequencies, 21
m tret PCR-Based Systems, 21
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ea Randomly Mating Populations, 26
es crer, c Population Structure, 28
L filwev Dealing with Subpopulations, 28
XMho Persons from the Same Subpopulation 29
m g, Some Statistical Considerations 30
en recomposed frog-specific formattinn. TMhaet cRhe Pferroebnacbei lDitya,t aLbiakseel,ihood Ratio, and Two Fallacies. 3301
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.