The Effectiveness of the Wassenaar Arrangement as the Non-Proliferation Regime for ...

125 Pages·2015·4.75 MB·English

The Effectiveness of the Wassenaar Arrangement as the Non-Proliferation
Regime for Conventional Weapons

A THESIS

SUBMITTED TO THE

INTERSCHOOL HONORS PROGRAM IN INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY STUDIES

Center for International Security and Cooperation

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

STANFORD UNIVERSITY

By

Austin Lewis

May 2015

Adviser:

Judith Goldstein
Abstract
Sovereign countries assume they have the right to purchase weapons to strengthen their
national security; however, unrestricted arms trade destabilizes regions, contributes to human
rights violations, and drives interstate conflicts. Over the past century, major weapon exporting
states have recognized arms trade regulation as critical for international security and, in 1996,
formed the Wassenaar Arrangement as an export control group for conventional weapons.
However, critics of the regime claim that the principles designed to make it successful, namely
its emphasis on cooperation and transparency, lead to ineffectiveness at regulating weapons
transfers.
This thesis examines the Wassenaar Arrangement and asks to what extent it has achieved
its stated purpose of preventing “destabilizing accumulations” of conventional weapons.
Findings show that regional trends of weapon imports and economic activity between 1980-2013
reveal no clear evidence of a shift in arms trade as a result of the regime’s formation: weapons
import data for select countries from 2003-2013 indicate that members of the Wassenaar
Arrangement have not limited or altered their sales in any noticeable way. This study concludes
that economic incentives may undermine cooperation within the arrangement.

  ii
Acknowledgements
Even after spending the past ten months working on and writing this thesis, I am still at a
loss of words on how to express my thanks for the advice and support of friends, family, and
faculty who have stuck with me through my challenges and my victories. I have appreciated all
of your help and encouragement, and I hope that this section reflects my gratitude.
I would first like to thank Professor Judith Goldstein for all of her advice, time, and
support as my thesis advisor. When I first met with Professor Goldstein a week before
Thanksgiving Break, I still had not found an advisor for my thesis. Although she had an
extremely full schedule and knew as much about the Wassenaar Arrangement as I did, she took a
chance on advising me, and I am extremely grateful for that decision. In our weekly meetings,
Professor Goldstein would steer me in the right direction when I would get bogged down in the
data and was ready to provide support as an advisor and as a mentor. Her advice and feedback
were critical in shaping my thesis to its current form, even during the final week of editing.
Next, I would like to thank Professors Martha Crenshaw and Chip Blacker as well as
Shiri Krebs for their involvement in the CISAC Honors Program. Their support and
encouragement throughout the past year has been truly remarkable. Professor Crenshaw was
instrumental in helping me find a security-related summer internship, which further shaped my
interest for security issues. Although it took me a while to find my stride in the beginning, their
support and guidance were greatly appreciated. Both Professors Blacker and Crenshaw provided
thoughtful and helpful comments to my drafts and other considerations regarding my thesis. I am
also grateful to Shiri Krebs for helping me frame my interests into a provable thesis question.
I would also like to thank Dr. Paul Stockton for preparing me to write a thesis during the
summer. Although I switched thesis topics before school started, our discussions on
methodology and supporting arguments made me continuously think about my claims
throughout the process and whether or not they were properly defended.
I would also like to thank the rest of my CISAC Honors cohort – Akshai Baskaran,
Patrick Cirenza, Kelsey Dayton, Taylor Grossman, Sean Hiroshima, Annie Kapnick, Sarah
Kunis, Teo Lamiot, Sam Rebo, Geo Saba, Eliza Thompson, and Adrienne van Schulthess-for all
their support. Since our trip to Washington, D.C., we have supported each other during
presentations and late night writing sessions. Although they were all working on separate theses,
they would share resources and information relevant to my thesis that they had come across.
Furthermore, I would like to thank my friends and family for supporting me throughout
this process. These people kept me grounded and often reminded me of why I had set out on this
endeavor in the first place. Whether it was attending my presentations or just listening as I
rambled about my data, they made this entire process so much more manageable. I would like to
personally thank my roommate, Akshai Baskaran, for being a huge part of my support system.
Even while he worked on his own thesis, I could always count on his encouragement and candid
advice for my thesis-related challenges.
Finally, this thesis would not have been possible without the Center for International
Security and Cooperation (CISAC) within the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
This has been an unbelievable experience for me and has confirmed my interest in national and
international security.
Once again, thank you all for your support and encouragement throughout the past year. I
cannot begin to describe how grateful I am to have had you all as an integral component of this
experience. This thesis is for you.

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Table of Contents
Abstract
 ...................................................................................................................................................................
 ii

Acknowledgements
 ...........................................................................................................................................
 iii

List
 of
 Figures
 ........................................................................................................................................................
 v

List
 of
 Tables
 .......................................................................................................................................................
 vii

Acronyms
 .............................................................................................................................................................
 xii

Introduction
 ...........................................................................................................................................................
 1

I.
 The
 History
 and
 Structure
 of
 the
 Wassenaar
 Arrangement
 ..............................................................
 5

Nonproliferation
 Regimes
 Before
 Wassenaar
 ................................................................................................................
 5

From
 the
 Formation
 of
 COCOM
 to
 the
 Current
 Structure
 of
 the
 Wassenaar
 Arrangement
 .......................
 8

II.
 Data
 ...................................................................................................................................................................
 24

Data
 Collection
 ..........................................................................................................................................................................
 25

Regional
 Conventional
 Weapons
 Import
 Data
 ...........................................................................................................
 28

Global
 Arms
 Import
 Trends
 .................................................................................................................................................
 29

Regional
 Economic
 and
 Import
 Trends
 .........................................................................................................................
 30

Responses
 to
 Regional
 Weapons
 Importing
 .................................................................................................................
 32

Neighbor
 vs.
 Regional
 Response
 ........................................................................................................................................
 33

Arms
 Import
 Trends
 over
 Different
 Time
 Periods
 .....................................................................................................
 34

Sample
 Countries’
 Export
 Values
 ......................................................................................................................................
 36

III.
 Analysis
 ..........................................................................................................................................................
 39

Global
 and
 Regional
 Data
 Analysis
 ..................................................................................................................................
 39

State
 Import
 Data
 Analysis
 ..................................................................................................................................................
 43

IV.
 Conclusion
 .....................................................................................................................................................
 51

Bibliography
 .......................................................................................................................................................
 56

Appendix
 A
 ..........................................................................................................................................................
 59

Appendix
 B
 ..........................................................................................................................................................
 60

  iv
List of Figures

Figure Page

1. Absolute Difference in Conventional Weapon Import Values between Iraq,
Kuwait and the Regional Average from 1980-1990 .................................. 16

2. The Ratio of Iraq’s Conventional Weapons Spending to that of Kuwait’s
from 1980-1990 Normalized by its GDP .................................................. 17

3. Map of the Wassenaar Arrangement Member States ...................................... 20

4. Map of Sample Regions ................................................................................... 27

5. Shifts in Average Weapons Imports Relative to Average Gross Domestic
Product from 1980-2013 between Western Europe and Southwest Asia .. 30

6. Shifts in the Arms Export Values and the Economic Activity of North
African countries between 1980 and 1990 ................................................. 32

7. The Weapons-Import Economic Ratio (WIER) of North African Countries
in 1980, 1990, 2006, and 2013 ................................................................... 33

8. Representation of Significant Correlations in Regional Responses to a
Country’s Imports over Different Response Periods in North Africa
and Western Europe from Four Timeframes ............................................. 35

9. Sample Two-Axis System Presenting the Relative Standings of Countries
Based on Economic Activity and Weapons Imports ................................. 39

Appendix

B1. The Comparison of Shifts in Average Weapons Imports Relative to
Average Gross Domestic Product from 1980-2013 between North
Africa, Middle East, and South America ................................................... 100

B2. The Weapons-Import Economic Ratio (WIER) of Middle East Countries in
1980, 1990, 2005, and 2013 ....................................................................... 101
B3. The Weapons-Import Economic Ratio (WIER) of South American
Countries in 1980, 1992, 2004, and 2013, ................................................. 101
B4. The Weapons-Import Economic Ratio (WIER) of Southwest Asian
Countries in 1980, 1991, 2002, and 2013 .................................................. 102
B5. The Weapons-Import Economic Ratio (WIER) of Western European
Countries in 1980, 1993, 2002, and 2013, ................................................. 102

  v
B6. Representation of the Significant Correlations in Regional Response to a
Country’s Imports over Different Response Periods in Middle East,
South America, and Southwest Asia in Four Different Timeframes ......... 103

B7. Representation of the Significant Correlations in Regional Response to a
Country’s Imports over Different Response Periods in North Africa and
South America in Four Different Time Spans ........................................... 104

B8. Representation of the Significant Correlations in Regional Response to a
Country’s Imports over Different Response Periods in North Africa and
South America in Four Different Time Spans ........................................... 105

  vi
List of Tables

TABLE Page

1. Statistical Data on the Correlations between Average Regional Economic
Activity and Weapons Import Value Across the Five Test Regions ........ 31

2. The Number of Significant Correlations Between a Countries’ Weapons
Import and the Reactions of Regional and Neighboring Countries
During Different Response Periods ........................................................... 34

3. Venezuelan Light Arms Import Data, 2003-2013 ............................................ 38

4. Venezuelan Heavy Arms Import Data, 2003-2013 ............................................ 38

5. R2 Values for Best-Fit Lines Forced Through the Origins of a Region’s
Economic Activity and Weapons Import .................................................. 41

6. Countries Recorded as Heavy Conventional Weapon Exporters to Algeria,
China, India, United Arab Emirates, or Venezuela Between 2001-2013 .. 45

7. Countries Recorded by SIPRI Either Light or Heavy Conventional Weapon
Exporters to Algeria, India, China, United Arab Emirates, or Venezuela
Between 2001-2013 ................................................................................... 48

Appendix

B1. Average American Consumer Price Index Relative to 1982 Base .................. 63

B2. Weapons Import Values for Middle East, 1980-2013 ..................................... 64
B3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Middle Eastern Countries, 1980-2013 .... 65
B4. Weapons Import – Economic Ratio (WIER) Values for Middle East, 1980-
2013............................................................................................................ 66
B5. Middle East Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-2013 . 67
B6. Middle East Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 67
B7. Middle East Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 68
B8. Middle East Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-1990 . 68
B9. Middle East Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 69
B10. Middle East Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 69
B11. Middle East Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1991-2000 70

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TABLE Page

B12. Middle East Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 70
B13. Middle East Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 71
B14. Middle East Correlation Table for No Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 71
B15. Middle East Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 72
B16. Middle East Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 72

B17. Weapons Import Values for Western Europe, 1980-2013 ............................ 73
B18. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Western European Countries,
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 74
B19. Weapons Import – Economic Ratio (WIER) Values for Western Europe,
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 75
B20. Western Europe Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
2013............................................................................................................ 76
B21. Western Europe Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 76
B22. Western Europe Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 76
B23. Western Europe Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
1990............................................................................................................ 77
B24. Western Europe Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 77
B25. Western Europe Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 77
B26. Western Europe Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1991-
2000............................................................................................................ 78
B27. Western Europe Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 78
B28. Western Europe Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 78
B29. Western Europe Correlation Table for No Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 79
B30. Western Europe Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 79
B31. Western Europe Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 79

B32. Weapons Import Values for Southwest Asia, 1980-2013 ............................. 80
B33. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Southwest Asian Countries, 1980-2013 81

  viii
TABLE Page

B34. Weapons Import – Economic Ratio (WIER) Values for Southwest Asia,
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 82
B35. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
2013............................................................................................................ 83
B36. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 83
B37. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 83
B38. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
1990............................................................................................................ 83
B39. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 84
B40. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 84
B41. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1991-
2000............................................................................................................ 84
B42. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 84
B43. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 85
B44. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for No Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 85
B45. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 85
B46. Southwest Asia Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 85

B47. Weapons Import Values for North Africa, 1980-2013 ................................. 86
B48. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of North African Countries, 1980-2013 .... 87
B49. Weapons Import – Economic Ratio (WIER) Values for North Africa,
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 88
B50. North Africa Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
2013............................................................................................................ 89
B51. North Africa Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 89
B52. North Africa Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 89
B53. North Africa Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
1990............................................................................................................ 89
B54. North Africa Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 90
B55. North Africa Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 90

  ix
TABLE Page

B56. North Africa Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1991-
2000............................................................................................................ 90
B57. North Africa Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 90
B58. North Africa Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 90
B59. North Africa Correlation Table for No Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 91
B60. North Africa Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 91
B61. North Africa Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 91

B62. Weapons Import Values for South America, 1980-2013 .............................. 92
B63. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of South American Countries, 1980-2013 . 93
B64. Weapons Import – Economic Ratio (WIER) Values for South America,
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 94
B65. South America Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
2013............................................................................................................ 95
B66. South America Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 95
B67. South America Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-2013 .................................................................................................. 95
B68. South America Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1980-
1990............................................................................................................ 96
B69. South America Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 96
B70. South America Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1980-1990 .................................................................................................. 96
B71. South America Correlation Table for No Response Time Between 1991-
2000............................................................................................................ 97
B72. South America Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 97
B73. South America Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between
1991-2000 .................................................................................................. 97
B74. South America Correlation Table for No Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 98
B75. South America Correlation Table for One-Year Response Time Between
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 98
B76. South America Correlation Table for Two-Year Response Time Between ..
2001-2013 .................................................................................................. 98

  x