The Diffusion of New Fertility Behaviours in Algeria: Geographical

35 Pages·2012·2.26 MB·English

2013 Meeting of the Population Association of America
Session S107 : Fertility Transitions across Space and Time
The Diffusion of New Fertility
Behaviours in Algeria:
Geographical Changes Observed
between 1987, 1998 and 2008 censuses
Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi, Jacques Vallin and Amar Ouali
Unité de recherche Migrations et sociétés (URMIS), Université Paris Diderot
Institut national d’études démographiques (INED), Paris
Direction de la population, Ministère de la santé, Alger
Total fertility rate:
from 8 to 2 within 30 years
TFR (children per woman)
10
In Algeria, Fertility rate
Vital statistics,
corrected
fell dramatically from
ENSP-1970
N & N
Estimated from
the mid 1970s to the 8
GFR
1966 census
end of the 1990s. Vital statistics,
corrected
Then, it increased
ENAF 1986
6 Vital statistics,
during the last decade. raw data
We are interested here ONS estimates
PAPCHILD 1992
in the decrease: how it 4
2008 census
diffused over all the
1998 census
country? ONS estimates
2 Surveys
Censuses MICS3 2006
PAPFAM 2002
Vital statistics raw data
Vital statistics corrected for under-recording
Vital statisitics, etimated from GFR
Navelet & Nizard
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
A first idea is given by comparing urban an rural areas
Total fertility rate
9
8
7
Rural
6
5
Urban
4
3
2
1
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Cities started but rural areas caught
them up very soon
Age specific fertility rates
At the beginnig, the shape of fertility curev changes more dramatically in
cities but soon after, rural areas filled the gap
Age specific fertility rate (p 1000) Age specific fertility rate (p 1000)
400
400
Urban Rural
1970 1970
1986
300 300
1986
1992
200
1992 200
1998
22000088
2008
100 100
1998
2006
2006
0 0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Âge
It has been shown that, in Algeria, the first way
to reduce fertility has been the rise in female age at
first marriage.
Three questions
• 1. How fertility decline diffused over the whole
Algerian territory?
• 2. Did increase in mean age at marriage, the first way
of the fertility control, do the same?
• 3. Is there a geographical relation between fertility
decline and female mean age at marriage rise?
I. Fertility decline
• 1. Geographical differences in total fertility
rate: at « commune » level data are available
for a too recent period only (1998-2008, while
fertility stopped to decline and rose)
• 2. Parity at age 35-39 may serve as a good
proxy to investigate previous period of decline
1. The recent fertility rise
1998-2008
11999988
Total fertility rate
By wilayates
22000088
All Algeria
1998
Total fertility
rate
By wilayates
2008
Northern part
of Algeria
1998
Total fertitlity rate
By communes
2008
All Algeria