The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change - Africa Adapt

204 Pages·2013·1.94 MB·English

A needed upgrade in planning for
T The Demography
h
adaptation to climate change e

D
e of Adaptation to
A flurry of extreme weather events, together with projections m
that grow more somber with every new scientific advance, o
g
have dramatically highlighted the need to respond more
r Climate Change
effectively to the threats already upon humankind. In the a
p
midst of a rapidly expanding global adaptation agenda, it is
h
of primary importance to get adaptation and its constituent y

parts right, in order to generate the most appropriate and o
f
effective interventions. Reacting to events after they occur is
A
no longer sufficient; we increasingly need to anticipate and d
a
reduce the suffering and the enormously damaging impacts
p
coming events will cause. This book addresses a major gap in t
a
adaptation efforts to date by pointing to the vital role that an t
i
understanding of population dynamics and an extensive use of o
n
demographic data have in developing pre-emptive and effective
t
adaptation policies and practices. o

C
l
Politics and an oversimplified understanding of demographic i
m
dynamics have long kept population issues out of serious
a
discussions in the framework of climate negotiations. Within t
e
adaptation actions, however, this is beginning to change, and
C
this volume is intended to provide a framework for taking h
a
that change forward, towards better, more evidence-based
n
adaptation. It provides key concepts linking demography and g
e
adaptation, data foundations and techniques for analyzing
climate vulnerability, as well as case studies where these
concepts and analyses illuminate who is vulnerable and
how to help build their resilience.
International
Institute for
ISBN: 978-0-89714-001-0 EnDveirvoenlompemnet natnd Development Environment and Institute for International
International
Sales no: E.13.III.H.2
Institute for
Environment and
Development

The Demography of Adaptation
to Climate Change

The Demography
of Adaptation to
Climate Change
International
Institute for
Environment and
Development
EDiToriAl TEAm
George Martine and Daniel Schensul
This book should be cited as:
Martine, George and Daniel Schensul (eds.) 2013. The Demography of Adaptation to
Climate Change. New York, London and Mexico City: UNFPA, IIED and El Colegio
de México.
CoorDinATion
José Miguel Guzmán
DiSClAimEr
The views expressed in this book do not necessarily represent those of UNFPA, IIED or
El Colegio de México.
Cover design by Gisela Martine and Prographics, Inc
Cover photo: ©Marlene Bergamo/Folhapress
Copyright ©UNFPA, IIED and El Colegio de México, 2013
ISBN: 978-0-89714-001-0
UN Sales Number: E.13.III.H.2
iv The Demography of aDapTaTion To ClimaTe Change
Acknowledgements
This book emerged from the results of an expert group meeting held in at El Colegio
de México in Mexico City, October 2010, entitled “Population Dynamics and Climate
Change II: Building for Adaptation.” The meeting was organized by UNFPA, the
United Nations Population Fund, IIED, the International Institute for Environment and
Development and El Colegio de México. Support and contributions were provided by
a wide range of international and national institutions, including UN-HABITAT, IOM,
UNDP, ECLAC, UNIFEM, Population Division, UN/DESA, UNITAR, World Bank,
Mexico’s Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Consejo Nacional de
Población, Instituto Nacional de Ecología, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía,
and the Sociedad Mexicana de Demografía.
This book has been realized with the support of the Government of Luxembourg through
the project on Demographic Evolutions.
We would like to thank Phyllis Brachman for editorial work that significantly improved
each of the papers and the book as a whole. Guillermina Herrera of El Colegio de México
provided extensive support in the organization of the meeting in 2010, and Madeleine
Sacco provided invaluable administrative assistance in the preparation of the book.
aCknowleDgemenTs v

Contents
Acknowledgements ..................................................v
Foreword .........................................................x
About the Authors .................................................xii
Introduction.......................................................xv
George Martine and Daniel Schensul
Section 1: Population Dynamics and Adaptation:
Key Concepts and Perspectives
1. Populating Adaptation: Incorporating Population Dynamics in
Climate Change Adaptation Policy and Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Daniel Schensul and David Dodman
2. Fair and Effective Responses to Urbanization and Climate Change:
Tapping Synergies and Avoiding Exclusionary Policies ............... 24
Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, George Martine and Cecilia Tacoli
3. Migration as a Response to Local and Global Transformations:
A Typology of Mobility in the Context of Climate Change ........... 41
Cecilia Tacoli
Section 2: Population Data for Adaptation: Sources and methodologies
4. Understanding Vulnerability and Adaptation Using Census Data ...... 55
José Miguel Guzmán, Daniel Schensul and Sainan Zhang
5. Harnessing Census Data for Environment and Climate Change Analysis 74
Deborah Balk, José Miguel Guzmán and Daniel Schensul
6. Using Household Surveys in Climate Vulnerability and
Adaptation Analysis ........................................... 96
Landy Sanchez Peña and Regina Fuchs
Section 3: The Planning and Practice of Adaptation
7. Adapting Urban Settlements to Climate Change: Local Vulnerability
and Adaptive Capacity in the Urban Areas of Malawi ............... 115
Daniel Schensul, David Mkwambisi, Sainan Zhang,
David Dodman, Thomas Munthali and Dunstan Matekenya
ConTenTs vii
8. The Challenges of Adaptation in an Early but Unassisted
Urban Transition ............................................ 138
George Martine and Ricardo Ojima
9. Planning for Adaptation in a Megacity: A Case Study of the Mexico City
Metropolitan Area ........................................... 158
Boris Graizbord
list of Boxes
7.1: Climate Change Impacts in Malawi ............................. 121
7.2: The City of Blantyre ......................................... 127
7.3: The City of Mzuzu .......................................... 130
list of figures
1.1: IPCC Schematic Diagram Linking Drivers, Impacts and Responses
to Climate Change ............................................. 2
1.2: Bacon Poblacion, Sorsogon, Philippines .......................... 12
1.3: Resilience Framework ......................................... 15
4.1: Layers of Vulnerabilities/Adaptive Capacity ........................ 57
5.1: Provincial Boundaries, Overlaid by the 10m Low Elevation
Coastal Zone, Viet Nam ....................................... 82
5.2: Provincial and Commune Boundaries, Overlaid by the 10m
Low Elevation Coastal Zone, Viet Nam ........................... 83
5.3: Per Cent Difference in Estimates of Population Exposure to the LECZ:
Province and Commune-level Estimation Compared ................ 84
6.1: Household Surveys and Vulnerability Analysis ..................... 98
6.2: Education Distribution by Age in India and Mexico ................ 102
6.3: Labour and Asset Income by Age and Education in India and Mexico .. 103
6.4: Income Structure in Mexican Rural Households by State ............ 106
6.5: Variation in Budget Shares across Regions and Rural/Urban Residence .. 108
7.1: Study Sites in Malawi ........................................ 118
7.2: Population Density in Lilongwe ................................ 124
7.3: STI in Lilongwe............................................. 125
7.4: Proportion of Households with Improved Toilets, Blantyre........... 128
8.1: Number of Urban Inhabitants, Africa, Asia and LAC (in billions)
2010-2050.................................................. 140
8.2: Flooding and Devastation in Cities near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil:
Photos 1 and 2 .............................................. 144
8.3: Proportion of All Households Having Inadequate Sanitation
by Size of Municipalities, Brazil, 1991-2010....................... 146
viii The Demography of aDapTaTion To ClimaTe Change