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Roy Kamphausen
UNITED STATES
ARMY WAPR CROELLSEGSE David Lai
This Publication SSI Website USAWC Website
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THE CHINESE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION
ARMY IN 2025
Roy Kamphausen
David Lai
Editors
July 2015
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the
Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.
Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and
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official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them to
offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the inter-
est of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for
public release; distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code,
Sections 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be
copyrighted.
iii
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Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College, 47 Ashburn
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ISBN 1-58487-688-3
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CONTENTS
Foreword .....................................................................vii
Overview .......................................................................1
1. Introduction ………………………….......................3
Roy Kamphausen and R. Lincoln Hines
2. Whither China? Alternative Military Futures,
2020-30......................................................................31
Lonnie D. Henley
Domestic, External, and Technological
Drivers of People’s Liberation Army
Modernization ……………………………................55
3. Domestic Drivers of China's Future Military
Modernization ………….........................................57
Joseph Fewsmith
4. People’s Liberation Army Trajectories:
International Drivers ..............................................83
Eric Heginbotham and Jacob Heim
5. Capacity For Innovation: Technological
Drivers of China’s Future Military
Modernization.......................................................129
Richard A. Bitzinger and Michael Raska
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Alternative Futures for the People’s
Liberation Army ......................................................163
6. The People's Liberation Army in
2020-30 Focused on Regional Issues...................165
Bernard D. Cole
7. A Global Expeditionary People’s
Liberation Army: 2025-30 ……........................…207
Oriana Skylar Mastro
8. China’s Military Force Posture Under
Conditions of a Weakened People’s Liberation
Army: Alternative Military Futures,
2020-30 …………................................................…235
Daniel Gearin and Erin Richter
Implications for the Region, World,
and U.S.-China Relations ……...........................…267
9. Regional Dynamics in Response to
Alternative PLA Development Vectors..............269
Michael McDevitt
10. Implications: China in the International
System ..................................................................301
Phillip C. Saunders
11. Implications for U.S.-China Strategic
Dynamics .............................................................335
Robert Sutter
About the Contributors.............................................371
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FOREWORD
I’m pleased to introduce The Chinese People’s Lib-
eration Army of 2025 which is the 2014 edition of an
ongoing series on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
co-published by the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI),
the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), and the
United States Pacific Command (USPACOM). This
volume builds on previous volumes and identifies po-
tential trajectories for PLA force modernization and
mission focus, and how these potential changes could
impact external actors.
This volume is of special relevance today in light
of the profound changes occurring within the PLA. I
have spent a considerable amount of my professional
career in the Western Pacific and, during that time,
I’ve seen first-hand the rapid expansion of the size
and capability of the PLA as it pursues a long-term,
comprehensive military modernization program in
support of China’s more assertive regional strategy.
China’s desire to develop a military commensurate
with its diverse interests and economic power is both
legitimate and understandable. However, China’s
coercive approach to security is problematic and of
increasing concern to the region. The challenge for
USPACOM, and the reason why this volume is timely
and important, is to understand how China will em-
ploy this growing military capability in support of its
interests.
The scholarship presented in this edition address-
es the uncertainty surrounding the potential direction
of the PLA by examining three distinct focus areas:
Domestic, External, and Technological Drivers of PLA
Modernization; Alternative Futures for the PLA; and
Implications for the Region, World, and U.S.-China
vii
Relations. The analysis provides an insightful per-
spective into the factors shaping and propelling the
PLA’s modernization, its potential future orientation
ranging from internally-focused to globally-focused,
and how the PLA’s choices may impact China’s rela-
tions with its neighbors and the world.
NBR and SSI have, once again, provided an out-
standing contribution to the growing body of research
and analysis on the PLA. The Chinese People’s Lib-
eration Army of 2025 is a timely and important vol-
ume that will increase our understanding of the PLA
at a time in history that requires a well-informed ap-
proach to the expanding role of China.
HARRY B. HARRIS, JR.
Admiral, USN
Commander, U.S. Pacific Command
viii
Description:Carlisle: U.S. Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute, 2015. — viii; 379 p. — ISBN 1584876883This volume is of special relevance today in light of the profound changes occurring within the PLA. I have spent a considerable amount of my professional career in the Western Pacific and,
