Table Of ContentT H E F R O N T I E R S C O L L E C T I O N
Klaas Landsman
Ellen van Wolde
(Eds.)
T H E
C H A L L E NGE
OF C H A NC E
A Multidisciplinary Approach
from Science and
the Humanities
THE FRONTIERS COLLECTION
Series editors
Avshalom C. Elitzur
Iyar The Israel Institute for Advanced Research, Rehovot, Israel
e-mail: [email protected]
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Department of Physics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill,
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Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA), Pune, India
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Department of Physics, University of Portland, Portland, OR 97203, USA
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Department of Physics, Trinity College, Hartford, CT 06106, USA
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Jack A. Tuszynski
Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1Z2, Canada
e-mail: [email protected]
Rüdiger Vaas
Center for Philosophy and Foundations of Science, University of Giessen,
35394 Giessen, Germany
e-mail: [email protected]
THE FRONTIERS COLLECTION
Series Editors
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Klaas Landsman Ellen van Wolde
(cid:129)
Editors
THE CHALLENGE OF
CHANCE
A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science
and the Humanities
Editors
KlaasLandsman EllenvanWolde
Faculty of Science Faculty of Philosophy, Theologyand
Radboud University ReligiousStudies
Nijmegen Radboud University
TheNetherlands Nijmegen
TheNetherlands
ISSN 1612-3018 ISSN 2197-6619 (electronic)
THEFRONTIERS COLLECTION
ISBN978-3-319-26298-7 ISBN978-3-319-26300-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015956118
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Contents
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Klaas Landsman, Ellen van Wolde and Noortje ter Berg
Conceptual and Historical Reflections on Chance (and Related
Concepts). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Christoph H. Lüthy and Carla Rita Palmerino
The Mathematical Foundations of Randomness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Sebastiaan A. Terwijn
Randomness and the Madness of Crowds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Utz Weitzel and Stephanie Rosenkranz
Randomness and the Games of Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Jelle J. Goeman
The Fine-Tuning Argument: Exploring the Improbability of Our
Existence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Klaas Landsman
Chance in the Hebrew Bible: Views in Job and Genesis 1. . . . . . . . . . . 131
Ellen van Wolde
Happiness and Invulnerability from Chance: Western and Eastern
Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Johannes M.M.H. Thijssen and David R. Loy
The Experience of Coincidence: An Integrated Psychological and
Neurocognitive Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Michiel van Elk, Karl Friston and Harold Bekkering
WhenChanceStrikes:RandomMutationalEventsasaCauseofBirth
Defects and Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Han G. Brunner
v
vi Contents
Chance, Variation and the Nature of Causality in Ecological
Communities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Hans de Kroon and Eelke Jongejans
The Size of History: Coincidence, Counterfactuality and Questions
of Scale in History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Olivier Hekster
Accidental Harm Under (Roman) Civil Law. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
Corjo Jansen
Taming Chaos. Chance and Variability in the Language Sciences. . . . . 249
Roeland van Hout and Pieter Muysken
Biographies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
Titles in this Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
About the Editors
Klaas Landsman (1963) obtained his Ph.D. in
Theoretical High-Energy Physics from the University
of Amsterdam in 1989. He was a research fellow at
the University of Cambridge from 1989 to 1997,
interrupted by an Alexander von Humboldt
Fellowship at Hamburg in 1993–1994. He was sub-
sequently a Royal Academy Research Fellow at the
University of Amsterdam from 1997 to 2002, and
obtained a Pioneer Grant from NWO in 2002. Klaas
has held the Chairs in Analysis and subsequently in
Mathematical Physics at the Radboud University
since 2004, and in 2011 was awarded the Bronze
Medal of this university for his outreach work in mathematics. His research is
mainly concerned with non-commutative geometry and with the mathematical
foundations of quantum theory. The latter topic lies behind his interest in (pure)
chance and probability.
Ellen van Wolde (1954) obtained her Ph.D. in
Biblical Studies from Radboud University in 1989.
She was a professor at the Faculty of Theology of
UniversityofTilburgfrom1992to2008,andhasheld
the Chairs in Textual Sources of Judaism and
Christianity at Radboud University since 2009. In
2005 she was appointed as a member of the KNAW,
becoming a member of its Executive Board in 2011.
Ellen’s research is mainly concerned with the Old
Testament Books of Genesis and Job, and with
methodological approaches that acknowledge the role
culture andlanguageplaysintheformationofbiblical
texts. A related field of interest of hers is the question how chance, bad luck, or
coincidencewereexplainedinancientculturesandreligions,especiallyinsofaras
these explanations still influence our present views.
vii
Introduction
Klaas Landsman, Ellen van Wolde and Noortje ter Berg
DasGewebedieserWeltistausNotwendigkeitundZufallgebildet
(Thefabricofrealityisbuiltfromnecessityandchance)
Goethe
Abstract This chapter introduces the theme of the book (i.e., the challenge of
chance) and includes brief surveys of the individual chapters.
The collapse of cohesion is one of the features that characterize chance. By sheer
accident, or so it seems, something breaks the typical regularity of the natural
world,likeacometdisruptingthesolarsystem.Atahumanscale,wefindexamples
likeunexpectedlybumpingintoanoldfriend,orlosingalovedoneinanaccident.
Such (seemingly) random phenomena appear arbitrary; they disrupt our lives and
frustrate our human need for logic and meaning. The ensuing feelings of uncer-
tainty and apprehensiveness, in turn, trigger us to search for explanations that will
help restore order and normal patterns of cause and effect. In a word, we are
challenged by chance, and we have been so at least since antiquity.
Howdowerespondtosuchchallenges?Forthousandsofyearspeoplehavetried
todecidewhetherchanceisafundamentalandirreduciblephenomenon,i.e.certain
eventsarenotcaused—theyjusthappen,orwhetherchanceismerelyareflectionof
our ignorance. Either way, we find the experience of chance hard to deal with.
Humans constantly try to understand random phenomena and prefer explanations
that (re)install meaning. The question, then, is whether this search for explanation
and meaning has succeeded, or,at least, hasa fightingchance(sic)to succeed.
This question is more subtle than it appears, since with his revolutionary claim
that the universe is necessarily the way it is and yet has no goal, Spinoza cut the
thread connecting explanation and purpose. Even necessity was subsequently
K.Landsman(&)
FacultyofScience,RadboudUniversity,Nijmegen,TheNetherlands
e-mail:[email protected]
E.vanWolde
FacultyofPhilosophy,TheologyandReligiousStudies,RadboudUniversity,
Nijmegen,TheNetherlands
e-mail:[email protected]
N.terBerg
RadboudHonoursAcademy,RadboudUniversity,Nijmegen,TheNetherlands
©TheAuthor(s)2016 1
K.LandsmanandE.vanWolde(eds.),TheChallengeofChance,
TheFrontiersCollection,DOI10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7_1
2 K.Landsmanetal.
challenged by Darwin’s theory of evolution in the 19th century, followed by
quantum theory in the 20th, in both of which chance plays a fundamental role.
Insultfollowinginjury,fromHumeandKantonwardseventhecausalpatternsthat
permeate traditional science began to be questioned. From Aristotle to the 18th
century,naturalphilosophyhadseenthesepatternsasreal,ourrolebeinglimitedto
discoveringthem.Now,however,causalitywasclaimedtobeamereby-productof
oursubjectiveneedforrules,patterns,andmeaning,whicheventuallyledBertrand
Russelltohiswitticismthatcausalityis“arelicofabygoneage,surviving,likethe
monarchy, only because it is erroneously supposed to do no harm.”
The overall picture was summarized by the chilling words of Physics Nobel
Laureate and popular science writer Steven Weinberg: “The more the universe
appears comprehensible, the more it also appears pointless.” However, he imme-
diately qualified this pessimistic view (quoted from his popular account of the Big
Bang entitled The First Three Minutes) in the following way: “But if there is no
solaceinthefruitsofourresearch,thereisatleastsomeconsolationintheresearch
itself.Menandwomenarenotcontenttocomfortthemselveswithtalesofgodsand
giants, or to confine their thoughts to the daily affairs of life; they also build
telescopes and satellites and accelerators, and sit at their desks for endless hours
working out the meaning of the data they gather. The effort to understand the
universeisoneoftheveryfewthingsthatliftshumanlifealittleabovethelevelof
farce, and gives it some of the grace of tragedy.”
This effort to understand includes the present book, which complements the
excellentinterdisciplinarybooksonchancethathavealreadyappearedoverthelast
decades,bothatascholarly1andapopular2level.Byincorporatingawiderangeof
historicalandcontemporarysciences,thestudiespresentedhereallowustodevelop
a transdisciplinary perspective on chance. Thus our multidisciplinary approach, in
which a team of authors explores the issue of chance in the disciplines of philos-
ophy, mathematics, economics, game theory, statistics, physics, theology, neu-
ropsychology, genetics, ecology, history, law, and linguistics, makes us aware of
shared insights in these distinct disciplines. Let us first give a short survey of the
articles originating in these various disciplines, to conclude with a few thoughts
towards a transdisciplinary perspective on chance.
1See,forexample,G.Gigerenzeretal.(eds.),TheEmpireofChance(CambridgeUniversityPress,
1989),L.Krügeretal.,TheProbabilistic Revolution,Vols.1,2(MITPress,1990),I.Hacking,
The Taming of Chance (Cambridge University Press, 1990), I. Hacking, The Emergence of
Probability(CambridgeUniversityPress,2nded.2006),S.Kern,ACulturalHistoryofCausality
(Princeton University Press, 2004), P. Vogt, Kontingenz und Zufall: eine Ideen- und
Begriffgeschichte(Akademie-Verlag,2011).
2E.g.,N.N.Taleb,Fooledby Randomness(Penguin,2004),W.Poundstone, Fortune’sFormula
(HIllandWang,2005),K.Mainzer,DerkreativeZufall(C.H.Beck,2007),N.Silver,TheSignal
and theNoise:TheArt and Science of Prediction(Penguin, 2012),D.Hand,TheImprobability
Principle(BantamPress,2014).
