Table Of Contentthe autocratic middle class
princeton studies
in political behavior
TaliMendelberg,SeriesEditor
TheAutocraticMiddleClass:HowStateDependencyReducestheDemand
forDemocracy,BrynRosenfeld
AfterRepression:HowPolarizationDerailsDemocraticTransition,
ElizabethR.Nugent
TheLoudMinority:WhyProtestsMatterinAmericanDemocracy,
DanielQ.Gillion
SteadfastDemocrats:HowSocialForcesShapeBlackPoliticalBehavior,
IsmailK.White&ChrylN.Laird
TheCashCeiling:WhyOnlytheRichRunforOffice—andWhatWeCan
DoaboutIt,NicholasCarnes
DeepRoots:HowSlaveryStillShapesSouthernPolitics,AviditAcharya,
MatthewBlackwell&MayaSen
EnvyinPolitics,GwynethH.McClendon
Communism’sShadow:HistoricalLegaciesandContemporaryPoliticalAttitudes,
GrigorePop-Eleches&JoshuaA.Tucker
DemocracyforRealists:WhyElectionsDoNotProduceResponsiveGovernment,
ChristopherH.Achen&LarryM.Bartels
ResolveinInternationalPolitics,JoshuaD.Kertzer
The Autocratic Middle Class
how state dependency reduces
the demand for democracy
bryn rosenfeld
princeton university press
princeton&oxford
Copyright(cid:2)c 2021byPrincetonUniversityPress
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Names:Rosenfeld,Bryn,1981–author.
Title:Theautocraticmiddleclass:howstatedependencyreducesthedemandfor
democracy/BrynRosenfeld.
Description:Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,[2021]|Series:Princeton
studiesinpoliticalbehavior|Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
Identifiers:LCCN2020014695(print)|LCCN2020014696(ebook)|
ISBN9780691192192(hardback)|ISBN9780691192185(paperback)|
ISBN9780691209777(ebook)
Subjects:LCSH:Civilservice—Politicalactivity—Formercommunist
countries—Casestudies.|Middleclass—Politicalactivity—Formercommunist
countries—Casestudies.|Authoritarianism—Formercommunistcountries.|
Democracy—Formercommunistcountries.|Democratization—Former
communistcountries.|Formercommunistcountries—Economicconditions.|
Formercommunistcountries—Politicsandgovernment.
Classification:LCCJN96.A69P642021(print)|LCCJN96.A69(ebook)|
DDC306.20947–dc23
LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2020014695
LCebookrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2020014696
BritishLibraryCataloging-in-PublicationDataisavailable
Editorial:BridgetFlannery-McCoyandAlenaChekhanov
ProductionEditorial:KathleenCioffi
CoverDesign:LaylaMacRory
Production:ErinSuydam
Publicity:KateHensleyandKathrynStevens
Coverimage:RallyforRussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheLuzhnikiStadium,
Moscow,March3,2018.MaximShemetov/REUTERS
ThisbookhasbeencomposedinArno
Printedonacid-freepaper.∞
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
contents
Acknowledgments vii
1 TheAutocraticMiddleClass 1
2 StateDependencyandMiddle-ClassDemand
forDemocracy 37
3 ThePost-CommunistMiddleClasses,theState,
andDemocratization 66
4 RethinkingtheMiddle-ClassProtestParadigm 100
5 ChoosingtoWorkfortheState 134
6 Revolution,DemocraticRetrenchment,
andtheMiddleClass 155
7 AligningtheMiddleClasswithAutocracy:Rhetoric
andPractice 193
8 Conclusion 222
AppendixI:RegressionResults 245
Bibliography 251
Index 269
Alinktotheonlineappendixcanbefoundathttps://press.princeton.edu/
books/paperback/9780691192185/the-autocratic-middle-class.
v
acknowledgments
inthewritingof this book, I have incurred many debts. The project
beganasadoctoraldissertationatPrincetonUniversity, whereIwasfortu-
nate to have the guidance of several scholars whom I greatly admire. Mark
Beissingeradvisedthisprojectfromitsearliestbeginnings.Heaskeddifficult
questions,offeredpatientencouragement,andhasbeenaninvaluablesource
ofguidanceandsupport.ChrisAchenwasalsoanexemplarymentor.Hiswit
andwisdommadeourconversationsoneofthesingularpleasuresofgradu-
atetrainingatPrinceton.IamalsodeeplyindebtedtoGrigoPop-Elechesfor
hisinsightfulcommentsoneverydraft.Hisfeedbackpushedmetosharpen
theproject’sempiricsandhelpedmetowrestlewithalternativearguments.
AtPrinceton, IalsowishtothankCarlesBoix, RafaelaDancygier, Amaney
Jamal,StevenKotkin,MarkusPrior,andRoryTruex.
Nuffield College, where I was a postdoctoral fellow during the 2015–
2016academicyear,providedtheperfectsettingforrevisingthismanuscript.
BenAnsellgavevaluableguidanceonframingandengagedgenerouslywith
theproject’sarguments. MywonderfulwritinggroupinOxford—Ezequiel
González-Ocantos,JodyLaPorte,LuisSchiumerini,JazmínSierra,andMaya
Tudor—helped me negotiate the difficult transition from dissertation to
book. Their friendship and thoughtful suggestions kept me on track. This
project also benefitted greatly from conversations at Nuffield with Nancy
Bermeo,RayDuch,GeoffEvans,OlgaOnuch,HenryThompson,andLau-
renceWhitehead.
At the University of Southern California, my colleagues generously
engaged with this project in seminars and workshops, in conversations on
campusandonthehikingtrail.GerryMunck,whoseownworkondemoc-
ratizationhastaughtmesomuch,hasbeenawonderfulmentor.Hisdetailed
feedbackatvariousjuncturesandmanyhelpfulinsightssignificantlystrength-
enedthemanuscript. BenGrahamhasbeenaterrificfriendandincredibly
generous colleague. He supported this project through careful comments,
vii
viii acknowledgments
transcription of my book workshop, and encouragement when I needed it
most.IcouldnotaskforbetterjuniorfacultyfriendsthanErinBaggottCarter,
Brett Carter, Andrew Coe, Morris Levy, James Lo, and Jon Markowitz. I
also thank Jeb Barnes, Dennis Chong, Ann Crigler, Pat James, Jane Junn,
SaoriKatada,StanRosen,andJeffSellersfortheirconstructiveengagement
andadvicealongtheway.Individualchaptersofthemanuscriptweregreatly
improvedbyfeedbackfromparticipantsintheCISWorkingPaperSeries,and
especiallyfromcommentsbyEvgeniiaIakhnis,XinruMa,andKellyZvbogo.
Iamalsoextremelygratefulforaterrificdiscussionofthemanuscriptat
thebookworkshopheldatUSC’sCenterforInternationalStudiesinthewin-
terof2016.IthankespeciallymyexternaldiscussantsStephenHaggardand
CynthiaKaplanfortheircommentsoneachandeverychapterandforpro-
vidingvaluableadviceontheproject’soverallframing.Ioweaspecialdebtof
gratitudetoDaveKangforsupportingtheworkshopasdirectoroftheCen-
terforInternationalStudies,tothemanyfacultyandgraduatestudentswho
participated,andtothewonderfulCISstaffwhohelpedtoorganizeit,Cort
BrinkerhoffandMadelineBrown.
Before completing this manuscript in the fall of 2019, I joined the fac-
ulty at Cornell University and relocated with my family to Ithaca. I wish
to thank my wonderful colleagues in the Department of Government and
especially Begüm Adalet, David Bateman, Val Bunce, Ali Cirone, Gustavo
Flores-Macías, JillFrank, SabrinaKarim, TomPepinsky, RachelRiedl, Ken
Roberts,SidTarrow,JeremyWallace,NicvandeWalle,andJessicaWeissfor
adviceandencouragementasImadefinalrevisions.
Previousversionsofseveralchapterswerepresentedatannualmeetings
oftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociationandMidwestPoliticalScience
Association.IwasfortunatetobenefitfromtheinsightfulcommentsofScott
Gehlbach, Henry Hale, Tom Remington, and Rory Truex, my discussants
atthoseconferences.IalsowishtothankseminarparticipantsatColumbia,
Essex,GeorgeWashington,theHigherSchoolofEconomicsinMoscow,the
LondonSchoolofEconomics,NYU,Oxford,Princeton,UCLA,theUniver-
sityofSouthernCalifornia,Vanderbilt,andWashingtonUniversitySt.Louis
forexcellentfeedback.
Forhelpfuldiscussionandcommentsalongtheway,IalsothankGraeme
Blair, Noah Buckley, Volha Charnysh, Michael Donnelly, Sarah El-Kazaz,
Jordan Gans-Morse, Yanilda Gonzalez, Aram Hur, Adam Krawitz, Tomila
Lankina,NoamLupu,IsraelMarquez,GwynethMcClendon,MichaelMiller,
acknowledgments ix
JohnReuter,JoanRicart-Huguet,GraemeRobertson,ArturasRozenas,Rudy
Sil,DavidSzakonyi,TariqThachil,JoshTucker,CarlosVelascoRivera,and
SethWessler. TimFryekindlyreaddraftsofseveralofthisbook’schapters
andofferedvaluableadviceatvariousstagesoftheproject.
My field research would not have been possible without the support of
manydifferentpeopleandinstitutions.InRussia,Idiscussedideasfromthis
project with Anna Andreenkova, Elena Avraamova, Vladimir Gimpelson,
YevgenyGontmakher,AlexeyGrazhdankin,LevGudkov,SvetlanaMareeva,
LiliaOvcharova,OvseyShkaratan,IrinaSoboleva,NataliaTikhonova,Mark
Urnov, and Denis Volkov. The project, in turn, has benefitted from their
valuableinsightsandsuggestions.TheHigherSchoolofEconomicswasater-
rificplacetopursuemyresearch. MarkUrnovopenedhispersonalarchive
to me and was particularly generous with his contacts in Russian politics
and academia. His support and good humor greatly enriched my time in
Moscow.IamalsogratefultotheLevadaCenterandtheFoundationforPub-
licOpinion(FOM)forgenerouslysharingtheirdata.Ithasbeenapleasureto
collaboratewiththeLevadaCenterandtheInstituteforComparativeSocial
Research(CESSI)foranumberofyears.
In Ukraine, I wish to thank Anatoly Arseenko, Elena Besedina, Liud-
milaCherenko,OleksandrDemianchuk,EvgenyGolovakha,OlekseyHaran,
OlgaKupets, OlgaKutsenko, MikhailoMishchenko, DenysNizalov, Olena
Nizalova,SvetlanaOksamitna,VladimirPaniotto,TatianaPetrushina,Liud-
milaShanghina,ElenaSimonchuk,andGannaVakhitovaforhelpfuldiscus-
sions.VladimirSayenkoandhismotherLydiawerewonderfulhosts,andmy
timeinKievwasimprovedimmeasurablybytheirhospitality.Beingmetby
afamiliarfacewhenIgotoffthetrainandthesingularpleasureofseeinga
friendIhadn’tseeninyearsaddedtothejoyoffieldwork.Iamgratefulalso
tohavesharedmanycupsofteaandconversationswithSasha,withwhomI
livedinKiev.IalsooweadebtofgratitudetotheInstituteofSociologyofthe
NationalAcademyofSciencesofUkraineandtoVictorStepanenkoforfacili-
tatingmyresearchinKyiv.TheInstituteofSociology,theRazumkovCentre,
andtheInstitutefortheStudyofLabor(IZA)verygenerouslyallowedmeto
usetheirdataforthisproject.
InKazakhstan,SaraAlpysbaeva,AlimaBissenova,SholpanEsimova,Gul-
miraIleuova, LyailaIvatova, ElenaMaltseva, DauletMynzhasarov, Bakhyt-
nurOtarbaeva,BotagozRakisheva,NurbekSayasat,CaressSchenk,Nazym
Shedenova, Alexei Trochev, Aigul Zabirova, Ernar Zharkeshov, and Aiman
x acknowledgments
Zhusupova made important contributions to this research. I also wish to
thank the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the
RepublicofKazakhstaninNur-Sultan(formerlyAstana)forwelcomingmeas
avisitingresearcherandmycolleaguesattheAcademyfortheircamaraderie
overmanycafeterialunchesandcupsoftea.ProfessorLyailaIvatovaopened
her home to me and was an incredibly gracious host. I am grateful for her
company, conversation, andwarmmantyastemperaturesinAstanadipped
andthewindwhippedinwintermonths.
The research for this book was made possible by the generous financial
supportofseveralinstitutions.Igratefullyacknowledgefundingformyfield
researchfromtheU.S.DepartmentofEducation’sFulbright-Haysprogram,
thePrincetonInstituteforInternationalandRegionalStudies,andtheMam-
douhaS.BobstCenterforPeaceandJustice.DaveKangprovidedthefunding
foraworkshoponthismanuscriptatUSC’sCenterforInternationalStudies.
At Princeton University Press, I wish to thank Eric Crahan for his early
interestinmymanuscriptandBridgetFlannery-McCoyforseeingitthrough
topublication.IamalsogratefultoAlenaChekanovandKathleenCioffifor
theirhelpalongtheway, andtoWendyWashburnformeticulouslyediting
every page. Tali Mendelberg, the series editor, and three anonymous read-
ersofferedexcellentfeedback, alongwithpraisefortheprojectthathelped
motivatemetofinishit.
My husband, Ian Kysel, has shared this project’s evolution and much
more since we met at Swarthmore College. He read every draft and talked
througheverychapter—onbikesalongtheHudson, onthetowpathalong
theThames,onthehikingtrailsinGriffithPark,andclimbingthegorgesin
Ithaca.Hisloveandpatiencemadethewritingpossible.Littlestbutnotleast,
Ezrajoinedourfamilybetweenroundsofrevisions.Iwasatmydeskworking
onchapter3whenIwentintolabor.Thisprojecthasgrownupwithhim.
Finally,myparents,RaymondRosenfeldandJanelleMcCammon,metas
doctoralstudentsinpoliticalscienceatEmoryin1970.WhenItookmyfirst
tenure-trackjob,myfathersentmefiftyyearsoftheAmericanPoliticalScience
Reviewtomakemyofficefeelmorelikehome.Theirmanygiftsinspiremeas
aparentandscholar.Thisbookisdedicatedtothem.
