Table Of ContentTHE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE AND THE
MIDDLE EAST
Also by Joseph I. Coffey
ALLIED PERCEPTIONS OF THREAT
ARMS CONTROL AND EUROPEAN SECURITY
DETERRENCE IN THE 1980s
STRATEGIC POWER AND NATIONAL SECURITY
Also by Gianni Bonvicini
LA POLITICA ESTERA DELL'EUROPA: Autonomia o Dipendenza?
I PARTITI E LE ELEZIONI DEL PARLAMENTO EUROPEO
GOVERNARE L'ECONOMIA EUROPEA: Divergenze e Processi
Integrativi
The Atlantic Alliance
and the Middle East
Edited by
Joseph I. Coffey
Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus
of Public and International Affairs
University of Pittsburgh
and
Gianni Bonvicini
Director
Istituto Affari lnternazionali
Rome
M
Palgrave Macmillan
© Joseph I. Coffey and Gianni Bonvicini 1989
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989 978-0-333-46578-3
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First published in 1989
Published by
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
The Atlantic Alliance and the Middle East.
1. Middle East--Foreign relations
2. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
I. Coffey, Joseph I. II. Bonvicini, Gianni
327'.0917'7 DS63.1
ISBN 978-1-349-10252-5 ISBN 978-1-349-10250-1 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-1-349-10250-1
Contents
Notes on the Contributors viii
Preface xi
1 Out-of-Area Issues: A New Challenge to the Atlantic
Alliance l
Gianni Bonvicini
I Out-of-Area: A History Which Starts with the
Signing of the North Atlantic Treaty 2
II Out-of-Area Experiences 4
III The Middle East and the Out-of-Area Issue 12
2 Levels of Conflict in the Middle East 17
Richard W. Cottam
I The Intra-State Level of Conflict 17
II The Inter-Regime Level of Conflict 27
III Conflict at the Level of the International System 45
IV Trends in the Bases of Conflict in the Middle East 58
V Applications to the Future 66
3 The Uses of Force in the Middle East 73
Anthony H. Cordesman
I Forces in, and Available for Deployment to, the
Middle East 74
II Using and Supporting Western Power Projection
Capabilities 104
III Regional Scenarios for the Use of Force 117
IV Libya: A Case Study of Counter-Terrorist
Operations 128
V The Forces of Military Change 136
VI Issues But No Answers 141
v
vi Contents
4 Do-it-Yourself: The National Approach to the Out-of-
Area Question 147
Maurizio Cremasco
I The Political Framework 148
II National Positions on the Out-of-Area Question 157
III Western Forces in Yesterday's Crises 171
IV The Limits to Western Action 186
5 Political Perceptions and MUitary Responses to Out-of-
Area ChaUenges 193
Reinhardt Rummel
I Factors Influencing Policy on the Use of Force 194
II Assessment of the Nature and Scope of the Threat 198
III Public Opinion and the Use of Force in the Middle
East 204
IV Military Forces as a Regional Deterrent Factor 206
v
Public Opinion in Previous Cases of the Use of
Force 209
VI Organising the Western Response 215
VII The Limits to Consensus 218
6 Multnateral Coordination of Out-of-Area Activities 227
Geoffrey Edwards
I Bilateral and Multilateral Approaches to
Coordination 229
II The European Community 233
III The European Political Cooperation 237
IV The Western European Union 240
v
The Atlantic Alliance 242
VI The Western Economic Summits 251
VII Multinational Coordination in Past Crises 253
VIII Towards More Effective Cooperation 259
7 Conclusions and Recommendations 268
Joseph I. Coffey
I Western Interests in the Middle East 269
Contents vii
II Threats to Western Interests 270
III The Uses of Force: An Overview 272
IV Reconciling National Approaches 273
v Agreeing on Responses 278
VII Organising for Decision Making 281
VIII Controlling Military Operations 284
IX Lessons From the Past 286
X Applications to the Future 291
XI 'To Do or Not To Do ... ' 301
XII What To Do? 303
Index 308
Notes on the Contributors
Gianni Bonvicini is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali,
Rome, and heads the European Studies Section of the Institute. He
is also Editor of IAI's quarterly English language journal, The
International Spectator, and is Visiting Professor of International
Relations at the Johns Hopkins University, Bologna Centre. Dr
Bonvicini has written and contributed to many books on European
integration, including The Prospects for European Integration (with
J. Sassoon, 1977), Governing the Economy of Europe: Divergence
and the Integrative Process (editor, 1978), The Foreign Policy of
Europe: Autonomy or Dependency? (editor, 1980) and The Economy
of the Common Market (editor, 1980). He has also served as
consultant on European affairs to the regional authority of Trento,
Italy.
Joseph I. Coffey is Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Public
and International Affairs and Senior Research Fellow in the Centre
for International Studies at the University of Pittsburgh, and also
holds the post of Visiting Professor of International Peace and
Security Studies at Carnegie Mellon University. Prior to these
appointments, he served as Chief, Office of National Security Studies,
Bendix Aerospace Systems Division and as a Research Analyst in
the Institute for Defense Analysis. As an officer in the United States
Army, he held various command and staff assignments in Army
Intelligence, Army Plans, in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense and on the White House Staff. He has also served as
consultant to a number of Federal Agencies on security related issues.
Dr Coffey has authored or co-authored six books (including Strategic
Power and National Security and Arms Control and European
Security) and has published more than forty monographs or articles
on strategy, deterrence, arms control and defence policy.
Anthony Cordesman has served in various capacities in the Office of
the Secretary of Defense, the State Department, and the Department
of Energy, analysing the military balance and strategic situations in
both the Gulf region and the Near East. He has served as a US
government official in Iran and has made numerous visits to the region,
most recently as a Woodrow Wilson Fellow and as international policy
viii
Notes on the Contributors ix
editor of the Armed Forces Journal International. In that capacity,
he also made extensive assessments of the military situation in
Western Europe. His most recent book, The Gulf and the Search for
Strategic Stability (1984), provides a comprehensive military and
strategic analysis of the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula,
assessing the internal security and stability of the Gulf nations and
the impact of defence spending and Western and Soviet bloc arms
sales in the region.
Richard W. Cottam is University Professor of Political Science at the
University of Pittsburgh. He holds a BA from the University of Utah
and an MA and PhD from Harvard University. Dr Cottam has
written extensively on Middle Eastern topics, including Nationalism
in Iran (1964, revised 1978), Foreign Policy Motivation: A General
Theory and Case Study of the British in Egypt (1977), 'Nationalism
in the Middle East' in From Nationalism to Revolutionary Islam (Said
Amir Arjomand (ed.) (1984), and 'Iran in the American World View'
in The Middle East and Western Alliance, ed. Steven Spiegel (1982).
Dr Cottam has also held positions in the US Foreign Service and
served as a consultant to the Department of State.
Maurizio Cremasco is Senior Researcher at the Istituto Affari
Internazionali, Rome, and Professor at the Institute for Advanced
International Studies in Florence. He holds a degree in Political
Science from the University of Padova. Prior to assuming his current
positions, Professor Cremasco served in the Chief Nuclear War
Planning Office (NATO Command), as Commander, and on the
Italian air force staff as the Chief Operational Intelligence Division.
He retired as Brigadier General in 1978. Professor Cremasco has
written several books, including The Standardization of Armaments
in NATO (1978), NATO's Southern Flank (with S. Silvestri, 1980),
and Peace from Terror to Disarmament (1983), as well as numerous
publications concerning security in the Mediterranean; among them,
'East-West Relations and Security in the Mediterranean' and 'The
Mediterranean, the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean: A Difficult
Strategic Equation'.
Geoffrey Edwards is presently Assistant Director of Studies at the
University of Southern California's School of International Relations,
United Kingdom Program. Previously, he was with the Federal
Trust for Education and Research, London. His publications on the
