Table Of ContentTHE ARMS RACE AT A TIME OF DECISION
OTHER PUG WASH PUBLICATIONS
Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (C. F. Barnaby, ed., Souvenir
Press, 1968)
Implications of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (C. F. Barnaby and A.
Boserup, eds, Souvenir Press, 1969)
Impact of New Technologies on the Arms Race (B. T. Feld, T. Greenwood,
G. W. Rathjens and S. Weinberg, eds, The Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 1971)
Pugwash on Self-Reliance (W. K. Chagula, B. T. Feld and A. Parthasarathi,
eds, Ankur Publishing House, 1977)
A New Design for Nuclear Disarmament (W. Epstein and T. Toyoda, eds,
Spokesman, 1977)
International Arrangements for Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing (A. Chayes and
W. Bennett Lewis, eds, Ballinger, 1977)
Feeding Africa (Pan-African Pugwash Group, 1978)
The Dangers of Nuclear War (F. Griffiths and J. C. Polanyi, eds, University
of Toronto Press, 1979)
Appropriate Technology and Social Values (F. A. Long and A. Oleson, eds,
Ballinger, 1980)
New Directions in Disarmament (W. Epstein and B. T. Feld, eds, Praeger,
1981)
European Security, Nuclear Weapons and Public Confidence (W. Gut
teridge, ed., Macmillan, 1982)
Scientists, the Arms Race and Disarmament (J. Rotblat, ed., Taylor &
Francis, 1982)
Proceedings of the First Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs
(J. Rotblat, ed., Pugwash Council, 1982)
The Dangers of New Weapon Systems (W. Gutteridge and T. Taylor, eds,
Macmillan, 1983)
J. Rotblat, Scientists in the Quest for Peace: a History of the Pugwash
Conferences (The MIT Press, 1972)
THE ARMS RACE AT A TIME OF
DECISION
Annals of Pugwash 1983
Edited by
Joseph Rotblat and Alessandro Pascolini
Foreword by Dorothy Hodgkin
M
MACMILLAN
© Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs 1984
All rights reserved. No part of this publication
may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form
or by any means, without permission
First published 1984 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
London and Basingstoke
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
The Arms race at a time of decision.
1. Atomic weapons
I. Rotblat, Joseph II. Pascolini, Alessandro
358' .39 U264
ISBN 978-0-333-37649-2 ISBN 978-1-349-17485-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-17485-0
CONTENTS
Foreword: Dorothy Hodgkin
IX
Preface: Editors XI
Notes on the Contributors xiv
Acronyms xvii
Glossary xix
Part One. Space Militarisation: Stabilising and Destabilising Aspects
1 J. C. Polanyi Can We A void an Arms Race in 3
Space?
2 K. Tsipis Directed Energy Weapons: 14
Technical Overview
3 E. P. Velikhov Outer Space Warfare 19
4 L. Anselmo, Security in Space 25
B. Bertotti &
P. Farinella
5 Report from Pugwash "An International Agency for the 36
Symposium in Use of Satellite Observation Data
Versailles for Security Purposes."
Part Two. Strategic Nuclear Arms Race
6 R. L. Garwin Doctrines and Thinking on Nuclear 47
War
7 K. Tsipis Vulnerability of Strategic Land- 56
Based Weapons
vi CONTENTS
8 C. Schaerf Reducing the Probability of a 65
Nuclear War
9 V. S. Emelyanov The Possibility of an Accidental 73
Nuclear War
10 J. K. Miettinen Freezes and Deep Reductions; 80
Technical Possibilities, Public
Sentiment, Political Will
11 D. Frei Improving Crisis Control Measures 88
12 V. F. Weisskopf Avoiding Nuclear War; there is still 104
Hope for Hope
Part Three. Security in Europe
13 L. Freedman Negotiations on Nuclear Forces in 113
Europe
14 A. Boserup The Real Problems about Nuclear 126
Forces in Europe
15 S. Lodgaard Nuclear Disengagement in Europe 130
16 N. Behar & I. Nedev The Balkan Nuclear Weapon-Free 140
Zone
17 Jane Sharp Mutual Force Reduction 148
Negotiations
18 R. R. Neild European Security 157
19 M. Dobrosielski Non-Military Aspects of European 164
Security
Part Four. Problems of Regional Security
20 K. Subrahmanyam Nuclear Weapons and Local 173
Conflicts
21 S. Freier Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear 182
Weapon-Free Zones in the
Mediterranean and Middle East
CONTENTS vii
22 M. Cremasco Naval Deployments and Stability in 187
the Mediterranean
23 W. Gutteridge From the Atlantic to the Gulf and 193
the Horn of Africa: The Spectrum
of Crisis
24 G. Arya South-East Asian Security Issues 202
25 A. Garcia-Robles The Latin American Nuclear 213
Weapon-Free Zone
Part Five. Security-Related Third World Problems
26 M. C. Wionczek Economics of the Armaments Race 225
27 K. Gottstein Social Costs of Military 233
Programmes in the North and
South
28 H. C. Cars Reduction of Military Expenditure 240
as a Disarmament Concept
29 P. M. Khamala Third World Security: Causes of 249
Conflict
30 E. E. Galal Third World Security and Strategic 258
Linkages
31 A. Salam International Commons: Sharing of 263
International Resources
Appendix A Statement from Pugwash Council 275
Appendix B The Pugwash Conferences 281
M.M.Kaplan
Index 285
FOREWORD
Dorothy Hodgkin
Ever since the first atom bomb was dropped on Hiroshima the
danger of nuclear war has been growing - not regularly, but
continuously; there have been periods of slowing down, often
followed by moments of sharp escalation. Today the arsenals
of the great powers are larger than ever before, the weapons
more rapid and more accurate in action. We also know today
far better than we did in 1945 how catastrophic the effects
of an all-out nuclear war could be. To the local terrible
destruction observed long ago, and magnified as it would be
now, we must add world-wide effects from radioactive fall-out
and darkness over the surface of the globe produced by clouds
of dust which might lead to the disappearance of many kinds
of living systems.
Against these dangers we place the growing hope that people
everywhere will realise before it is too late that to make
the world safe it is necessary not only to abandon nuclear
weapons but to abolish war. In an earlier moment of realis
ation President Eisenhower said 'Some day, the demand for
disarmament by hundred of millions will, I hope, become so
universal and so insistent that no man, no nation, can
withstand it.' At the time these words were spoken, there
were already many people taking part in demonstrations in
favour of a ban on all testing of nuclear weapons - we used
to say hundreds in the United Kingdom, thousands in Germany,
hundreds of thousands in Japan. Today the numbers supporting
disarmament are much larger, running into millions in the
United States, while from the east over a hundred million
signatures supported the petition presented by the Soviet
Union to the United Nations Special Session on Disarmament of
1978.
All the same, to effect the fundamental changes in the
attitudes of the nations to one another, needed to secure
peace, is a slow process; still greater efforts need to be
made by still more people. We have to be concerned with many
different aspects of the world situation: the causes of
ix
X FOREWORD
conflicts both between and within nations; the contrast
between the needs of the very poor in both developing and
developed countries and the enormous sums spent on arms; the
concentration of scientific manpower on weapons research
which hinders the use of science for human well being; arms
control and disarmament seen as a means not only to peace but
also to plenty.
These are the essential purposes, the essential topics of
the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs which
have been held since 1957. They began with a small nucleus of
scientists from east and west meeting to discuss ways to
reduce nuclear confrontation, and to establish a firm basis
of understanding. Over the years the number of participants
has increased, other nations have joined the first few and
the subjects under discussion have broadened as many experts
in related fields have come to the meetings. When we looked
back, we found that the recorded discussion at the first
Pugwash Conference (there were no prepared papers) was still
very relevant today - on the dangers of the use of nuclear
weapons, the characteristics and limitations of deterrence,
the responsibilities of scientists. This has encouraged us to
feel that some of the papers we discuss each year at our
meetings would be useful to a wider audience interested in
our common aims.
The least that this first volume of the Annals of Pugwash
can achieve is to demonstrate the reality of cooperation
within our conferences in the search for a safer world
between scientists from East, West, North and South.
