The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis: Reasoning about Uncertainty

354 Pages·2016·3.67 MB·English

by  Sven Ove Hansson

Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning 10
Sven Ove Hansson
Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn Editors
The
Argumentative
Turn in Policy
Analysis
Reasoning about Uncertainty
Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning
Interdisciplinary Perspectives from the Humanities
and Social Sciences
Volume 10
Series editor
Shahid Rahman
Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning explores the links between Humanities and
the Social Sciences, with theories including, decision and action theory as well
ascognitivesciences,economy,sociology,law,logic,andphilosophyofsciences.
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and enable interaction between disciplines as well as to federate the Humanities
andSocialSciencesaroundtheirmaincontributionstopubliclife:usinginformed
debate,luciddecision-makingandactionbasedonreflection.
The series welcomes research from the analytic and continental traditions,
puttingemphasisonfourmainfocusareas:
• Argumentationmodelsandstudies
• Communication,languageandtechniquesofargumentation
• Receptionofarguments,persuasionandtheimpactofpower
• Diachronictransformationsofargumentativepractices
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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11547
Sven Ove Hansson • Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn
Editors
The Argumentative Turn
in Policy Analysis
Reasoning about Uncertainty
Editors
SvenOveHansson GertrudeHirschHadorn
DepartmentofPhilosophyandHistory DepartmentofEnvironmentalSystemsScience
RoyalInstituteofTechnology SwissFederalInstituteofTechnology
Stockholm,Sweden Zurich,Switzerland
ISSN2214-9120 ISSN2214-9139 (electronic)
Logic,Argumentation&Reasoning
ISBN978-3-319-30547-9 ISBN978-3-319-30549-3 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-30549-3
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016936269
©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2016
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Preface
ThehistoryofthisbookgoesbacktoadiscussionthatwehadinDecember2012on
recent developments in decision analysis. There is a long tradition of criticizing
overreliance on the standard models of decision theory, in particular expected
utility maximization. What we found to be new, however, is a more constructive
trendinwhichnewtoolsareprovidedfordecisionanalysis,toolsthatcanbeusedto
systematizeandclarifydecisionsevenwhentheydonotfitintothestandardformat
ofdecisiontheory.Discussionswithcolleaguesconfirmedthatwewereonthetrack
of something important. A new approach is emerging in decision research. It is
highlypluralisticbutitalsohasacommontheme,namelytheanalysisofarguments
forandagainstdecisionoptions.Wedecidedthatabookwouldbethebestwayto
sumupthecurrentstatusofthisargumentativeturnindecisionanalysis,andatthe
sametimeprovidesomeimpetusforitsfurtherdevelopment.
The book consists of an introduction, a series of chapters outlining different
methodological approaches, and a series of case studies showing the relevance of
argumentative approaches to decision analysis. The brief Preview provides the
reader with an overview of the chapters, and an Appendix recapitulates some of
thecoreconceptsthatareusedinthebook.
We would like to thank all the contributors for excellent co-operation and not
leastfortheirmanycommentsoneachother’schaptersthathavecontributedmuch
to the cohesion of the book. All the chapters were thoroughly discussed on a
workshop in Zu¨rich in February 2015 that has been followed by many e-mail
exchanges. We would also like to thank Marie-Christin Weber for invaluable
editorialhelpandthepublisherandtheserieseditors,ShahidRahmanandLaurent
Keiff,fortheirsupportandtheirbeliefinourproject.
Stockholm,Sweden SvenOveHansson
Zurich,Switzerland GertrudeHirschHadorn
September24,2015
v

Contents
PartI Introductory
1 Preview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
SvenOveHanssonandGertrudeHirschHadorn
2 IntroducingtheArgumentativeTurninPolicyAnalysis. . . . . . . . . 11
SvenOveHanssonandGertrudeHirschHadorn
PartII Methods
3 AnalysingPracticalArgumentation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
GeorgBrunandGregorBetz
4 EvaluatingtheUncertainties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
SvenOveHansson
5 ValueUncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
NiklasM€oller
6 AccountingforPossibilitiesinDecisionMaking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
GregorBetz
7 SettingandRevisingGoals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
KarinEdvardssonBj€ornberg
8 Framing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
TillGru¨ne-Yanoff
9 TemporalStrategiesforDecision-making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
GertrudeHirschHadorn
PartIII CaseStudies
10 ReasoningAboutUncertaintyinFloodRiskGovernance. . . . . . . . 245
NeelkeDoorn
vii
viii Contents
11 FinancialMarkets:ApplyingArgumentAnalysis
totheStabilisationTask. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
MichaelSchefczyk
12 UncertaintyAnalysis,NuclearWaste,andMillion-Year
Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
KristinShrader-Frechette
13 ClimateGeoengineering. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
KevinC.Elliott
14 SyntheticBiology:SeekingforOrientationintheAbsence
ofValidProspectiveKnowledgeandofCommonValues. . . . . . . . 325
ArminGrunwald
Appendix
TenCoreConceptsfortheArgumentativeTurn
inPolicyAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
SvenOveHanssonandGertrudeHirschHadorn
Contributors
Gregor Betz is professor in philosophy of science at the Karlsruhe Institute of
Technology, Karlsruhe. In his publications, he develops argumentation-theoretic
modelsofcomplexdebates,reconstructsmoral,political,philosophicalandscien-
tificcontroversies,defendstheidealofvalue-freescience,simulatessocialopinion
dynamics,vindicatestheveritisticmeritofpluralityandcritique,andassessesthe
predictive limits of climate science and economics. He is also contributing to the
Argunet project (http://www.argunet.org), which seeks to promote a culture of
reasoning. His books include: Prediction or Prophecy? The Boundaries of Eco-
nomic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences (DUV 2006),
Theorie dialektischer Strukturen (Klostermann 2010), Debate Dynamics: How
ControversyImprovesOurBeliefs(Springer2012).
GeorgBrunisaresearchfellowattheInstituteofPhilosophyattheUniversityof
Berne. Before that he was a research fellow at the Institute for Environmental
DecisionsatETHZurich,contributingtointerdisciplinaryprojectsontheanalysis
of policy arguments and decisions. His areas of research include epistemology,
argumentation theory, philosophy and history of logic, metaethics and aesthetics.
Book publications: Die richtige Formel. Philosophische Probleme der logischen
Formalisierung [The Right Formula: Problems of Logical Formalization] (Ontos
2004),TextanalyseindenWissenschaften.InhalteundArgumenteanalysierenund
verstehen [Text Analysis in the Sciences: Analysing and Understanding Content
and Arguments] (as co-author, vdf 2014) and Epistemology and Emotions (as -
co-editor,Ashgate2008).
Neelke Doorn holds a master degree in civil engineering (MSc, cum laude) and
philosophy(MA,cumlaude)andaPh.D.degreeinphilosophyofengineeringand
technology, with additional training in water and nature conservation law (LLB,
cumlaude).ShewroteherPh.D.thesisonmoralresponsibilityinR&Dnetworks.
Dr. Doorn is currently an assistant professor at the School of Technology, Policy
and Management of the Technical University Delft, Department of Values,
ix