The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions

225 Pages·2014·32.544 MB·English

by  Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic, PPolar Research Board (PRB), Division on Earth and Life Studies (DELS), National Research Council

T H E A R C T I C
IN THE ANTHROPOCENE
EMERGING RESEARCH QUESTIONS
Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
Polar Research Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe-
tences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, the Department of Energy
under award number DE-SC0008724; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration un-
der award number NNX13A014G; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under
award number WC133R-11-CQ-0048, TO#4; the National Science Foundation under award
number ARC-1243485; and the Smithsonian Institution under award number 12-PO-590-
0000254005. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this
material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring
agencies or any of their sub agencies.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions
COMMITTEE ON EMERGING RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN THE ARCTIC
HENRY P. HUNTINGTON (Co-Chair), The Pew Charitable Trusts, Eagle River, Alaska
STEPHANIE PFIRMAN (Co-Chair), Barnard College, Columbia University, New York,
New York
CARIN ASHJIAN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ, Michigan Technological University, Ann Arbor, Michigan
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
SVEN HAAKANSON, University of Washington, Seattle
ROBERT HAWLEY, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
TAQULIK HEPA, North Slope Borough, Barrow, Alaska
DAVID HIK, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta
LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska Fairbanks
AMANDA LYNCH, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
A. MICHAEL MACRANDER, Shell Alaska, Anchorage
GIFFORD H. MILLER, University of Colorado Boulder
KATE MORAN, Ocean Networks Canada, Victoria, British Columbia
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON (NAS), The Ohio State University, Columbus
SAMUEL B. MUKASA, University of New Hampshire, Durham
TOM WEINGARTNER, University of Alaska Fairbanks
NRC Staff
MAGGIE WALSER, Co-Study Director
LAUREN EVERETT, Co-Study Director
LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions
POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
JAMES C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado Boulder
WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder
SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts Amherst
JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado Boulder
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
EILEEN E. HOFMANN,Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, The Ohio State University, Columbus
GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts
RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant
CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska
GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska Fairbanks
ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York
Ex-Officio:
LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
DENEB KARENTZ, University of San Francisco, California
NRC Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director
LAURIE GELLER, Program Director
MAGGIE WALSER, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Associate Program Officer
LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions

Preface
T
his report comes at a unique time in human history. Never before has an ocean
opened up before our eyes, awakening many to the importance and relevance
of the far north. Because of the Arctic’s new strategic and economic potential,
most of the Arctic countries—the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark/
Greenland, Finland, Iceland, and Russia—have produced new or updated national
Arctic plans within the past year. These countries include some of the world’s largest
and strongest economies. Several of the national plans are oriented toward develop-
ment and increased empowerment of northern populations, as countries grapple with
the prospect of claiming newly accessible mineral and energy resources. Internation-
ally, the opening of the Arctic has raised issues of sovereignty and preparedness and
spurred political realignment. Recently, the European Command1 identified the Arctic
as a security concern. The non-Arctic countries of China, India, Italy, Japan, Singapore,
and South Korea were accepted as observers by the Arctic Council2 in 2013, joining
France, Spain, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The United
States will assume chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2015.
The Arctic itself is unique. The seasonal shifts from icy white in winter to browns,
greens, and blues in summer are more extreme than anywhere else on Earth as the
snow melts on land and the sea ice retreats in the ocean. The Arctic Ocean is sur-
rounded by land, with narrow passages allowing interchange between the Pacific
and the Atlantic oceans. Its hydrology is subject to more terrestrial influence than is
any other ocean’s, and it receives freshwater from some of the largest rivers on Earth,
whose watersheds include much of North America and Asia. Some have called it the
estuary for the rest of the world ocean. The nearly encircling, shallow continental
shelves are dominated by national Exclusive Economic Zones; no other ocean has so
much of its area so designated. The United States shares international borders with
Russia and Canada in the Arctic.
Northern populations are unique in their relationship with the land, having thrived
through some of the largest climate variations on Earth, ranging from the Ice Age, with
mile-thick glaciers and frozen lands, to the warming, thawing, greening, glacial retreat,
and urbanization of the Anthropocene. Resilient in the face of past changes, they face
1 See http://www.eucom.mil/.
2 See http://www.arctic-council.org.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions
PREFACE
a complex suite of disruptions, dislocations, and opportunities in the years to come
as all climate models project continued warming and loss of sea ice, on which many
of their traditional practices and food sources depend. The need for actionable Arctic
science has never been greater than it is today.
This report synthesizes the scientific community’s input on emerging research topics
that concern the Arctic (i.e., those questions that we are only now able to ask or have
a realistic prospect for studying). It especially considers topics that have been over-
looked or underrepresented in current Arctic research. It also outlines opportunities
and challenges in supporting new and existing research pathways and translating
that research into practical information that can help guide management and policy
decisions in the United States. The report is directed toward the Interagency Arctic
Research Policy Committee (IARPC),3 which represents 15 federal agencies and organi-
zations with responsibilities in the Arctic. It is designed to address the urgency for un-
derstanding the rapidly changing Arctic by connecting the dots among future science
opportunities and priorities, infrastructure needs, and collaboration opportunities at
local, regional, and international levels.
In preparing this analysis, the committee heard from a broad spectrum of the scientific
and stakeholder communities, and we thank everyone for their thoughts and perspec-
tives (Appendix B). We also thank the over 300 anonymous participants in our commu-
nity questionnaire (Appendix C). Special thanks go to Marc Meloche, David Scott, and
Sandy Bianchini of the Canadian Polar Commission for hosting our committee meet-
ing in Ottawa. On behalf of the entire study team, we also thank the sponsors who
enabled the undertaking of this important analysis. Finally, this report would not have
been possible without the dedication and hard work of the National Research Coun-
cil staff: Lauren Everett and Maggie Walser. We also thank Elizabeth Finkelman, Shelly
Freeland, Rita Gaskins, and Rob Greenway for administrative and logistical support.
Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington, Co-Chairs
Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
3 IARPC member agencies / organizations include: the National Science Foundation; the Department
of Commerce; the Department of Defense; the Department of State; the Department of Health and Human
Services; the Department of Homeland Security; Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Department
of Agriculture; the Department of Energy; the Department of the Interior; the Department of Transportation;
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; the Environmental Protection Agency; the Smithsonian
Institution; and the National Endowment for the Humanities.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions

Acknowledgments
T
his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved
by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review
is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making
its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institu-
tional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The
review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of
the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participa-
tion in their review of this report:
WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder
EDDY CARMACK, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, University of Alaska Fairbanks
BYRON CRUMP, Oregon State University
GAIL FONDAHL, University of Northern British Columbia
DONALD PEROVICH, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory,
Dartmouth College
MARTIN ROBARDS, Wildlife Conservations Society
JULIENNE STROEVE, National Snow and Ice Data Center
ORAN YOUNG, University of California, Santa Barbara
TINGJUN ZHANG, National Snow and Ice Data Center
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and
suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final
draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John
Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life
Studies, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination
of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all
review comments were carefully considered. The authoring committee also wishes to
thank numerous individuals from a broad spectrum of the scientific and stakeholder
communities (Appendix B). Responsibility for the final content of this report rests en-
tirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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