The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East (Saban Center at the Brookings Institution Books)

401 Pages·2011·3.25 MB·English

by  Kenneth M. Pollack

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BROOKINGSINSTITUTIONPRESS
Washington,D.C. SArAh e. yerkeS
www.brookings.edu
COvERIMAGE:©ISTOCKPhOTO.COM
COvERBySESE-PAUlDESIGN
the arab
awakening
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a saban center at the brookings institution book
t h e a r ab
awakening
America and the Transformation
of the Middle East
Kenneth M. Pollack Daniel L. Byman
Akram Al-Turk Jonathan D. Pollack
Pavel K. Baev Bruce O. Riedel
Michael S. Doran Ruth Hanau Santini
Khaled Elgindy Salman Shaikh
Stephen R. Grand Ibrahim Sharqieh
Shadi Hamid Ömer Tas¸pinar
Bruce Jones Shibley Telhami
Suzanne Maloney Sarah E. Yerkes
brookings institution press
Washington, D.C.
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Copyright © 2011
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036
www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing
from the Brookings Institution Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data
The Arab awakening : America and the transformation of the Middle East / Kenneth M.
Pollack . . . [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary: “Analyzes key aspects of the 2011 Mideast turmoil, such as Arab public
opinion; socioeconomic and demographic conditions; the role of social media; influence
of Islamists; the impact of political changes on the Arab-Israeli peace process; and
ramifications for the United States and the rest of the world. Also provides country-by-
country analysis of Middle East political evolution”—Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-0-8157-2226-7 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Arab countries—Politics and government—21st century. 2. Democratization—Arab
countries—History—21st century. 3. Protest movements—Arab countries—History—
21st century. 4. United States—Foreign relations—Arab countries. 5. Arab countries—
Foreign relations—United States. 6. Arab countries—Foreign relations—21st century.
I. Pollack, Kenneth M. (Kenneth Michael), 1966– II. Title.
JQ1850.A91A73 2011
956.05'4—dc23 2011038375
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed on acid-free paper
Typeset in Minion
Composition by Cynthia Stock
Silver Spring, Maryland
Printed by R. R. Donnelley
Harrisonburg, Virginia
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We only have one fear, that the revolution will stop. Nothing else.
Twenty-five-year-old Syrian activist
Beirut, July 2011
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Contents
Preface: Why Should You Read This Book? xi
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction: Understanding the Arab Awakening 1
Kenneth M. Pollack
Part I. The Dynamics of the Arab Spring
2 Arab Public Opinion: What Do They Want? 13
Shibley Telhami
3 Democratization 101: Historical Lessons for the Arab Spring 21
Stephen R. Grand
4 Islamists and the Brotherhood: Political Islam and the Arab Spring 29
Shadi Hamid
5 The Impact of New Media: The Revolution Will Be Tweeted 39
Michael S. Doran
6 The Impact on the Peace Process: Peacemaker or Peacebreaker? 47
Khaled Elgindy and Salman Shaikh
7 The Arab Militaries: The Double-Edged Swords 58
Kenneth M. Pollack
8 The Economic Dimension: The Price of Freedom 66
Suzanne Maloney
9 Terrorism: Al-Qaeda and the Arab Spring 76
Daniel L. Byman
Part II. Countries in Transition
10 Democratizers? The Pursuit of Pluralism 87
Kenneth M. Pollack
vii
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viii contents
11 Iraq: The Roller Coaster of Democracy 94
Kenneth M. Pollack
12 Egypt: The Prize 102
Shadi Hamid
13 Tunisia: Birthplace of the Revolution 111
Shadi Hamid
14 Libya: From Revolt to State-Building 117
Akram Al-Turk
15 The Palestinians: Between National Liberation and Political Legitimacy 128
Khaled Elgindy
Part III. The Imperative of Reform
16 Reform: Convincing Reluctant Regimes to Change 141
Kenneth M. Pollack
17 Making Reform Credible: The Critical Piece of the Puzzle 148
Stephen R. Grand, Shadi Hamid, Kenneth M. Pollack,
and Sarah E. Yerkes
18 Saudi Arabia: The Elephant in the Living Room 159
Bruce O. Riedel
19 Jordan: An Imperfect State 168
Salman Shaikh
20 Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE: The Nervous Bystanders 176
Suzanne Maloney
21 Bahrain: Island of Troubles 188
Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh
22 Morocco: The Model for Reform? 196
Sarah E. Yerkes
23 Algeria: Whistling Past the Graveyard 206
Bruce O. Riedel
Part IV. States in Crisis
24 States in Civil War: Challenges for the United States 213
Daniel L. Byman
25 Yemen: The Search for Stability and Development 221
Ibrahim Sharqieh
26 Syria: The Ghosts of Hama 230
Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh
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contents ix
Part V. Other Regional Actors
27 Regional Actors: The Changing Balance of Power in the Middle East 243
Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack
28 Israel: A Frosty Response to the Arab Spring 250
Daniel L. Byman
29 Iran: The Bogeyman 258
Suzanne Maloney
30 Turkey: An Interested Party 268
Ömer Tas¸pınar
Part VI. The External Powers
31 External Powers: Riding the Tsunami 277
Kenneth M. Pollack
32 Europe: Muddling Through 285
Ruth Hanau Santini
33 Russia: Moscow Does Not Believe in Change 291
Pavel K. Baev
34 China: Unease from Afar 298
Jonathan D. Pollack
35 The International Order and the Emerging Powers:
Implications of the Arab Awakening 305
Bruce Jones
36 The United States: A New American Grand Strategy
for the Middle East 311
Kenneth M. Pollack
Appendix: Political, Social, and Economic Indicators of the Middle East 319
Notes 325
About the Authors 365
Index 369
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