The Agro-Technological System Towards 2000A European Perspective

293 Pages·1988·4.91 MB·English

by  G. ANTONELLI and A. QUADRIO-CURZIO (Eds.)

CONTRIBUTIONS
TO
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
174
Honorary Editor:
J.TINBERGEN
Editors:
D.W. JORGENSON
J.WAELBROECK
NORTH-HOLLAND
AMSTERDAM • NEW YORK • OXFORD TOKYO
THE
AGRO-TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEM
TOWARDS 2000
A European Perspective
Edited by:
G.ANTONELLI
University of Naples
Naples, Italy
and
A. QUADRIO-CURZIO
Catholic University of Milan
Milan, Italy
NORTH-HOLLAND
AMSTERDAM • NEW YORK • OXFORD TOKYO
©ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHERS B.V., 1988
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner.
ISBN: 0 444 70461 2
Publishers:
ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHERS B.V.
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1000 BZ Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Sole distributors for the U.S.A. and Canada:
ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHING COMPANY, INC.,
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The Agrotechnological system towards 2000.
(Contributions to economic analysis ; 174)
Includes bibliographies and indexes.
1. Agricultural innovations—Economic aspects—
Congresses. 2. Agriculture—Economic aspects—
Congresses. 3. Food industry and trade—Congresses.
4. Agriculture and state—Congresses. I. Antonelli,
Gilberto. II. Quadrio-Curzio, A. (Alberto) III. Series.
HD1405.A375 1988 338.1 88-16456
ISBN 0-444-70461-2
PRINTED IN THE NETHERLANDS
Introduction to the series
This series consists of a number of hitherto unpublished studies, which are
introduced by the editors in the belief that they represent fresh contributions to
economic science.
The term 'economic analysis' as used in the title of the series has been adopted
because it covers both the activities of the theoretical economist and the research
worker.
Although the analytical methods used by the various contributors are not the
same, they are nevertheless conditioned by the common origin of their studies,
namely theoretical problems encountered in practical research. Since for this
reason, business cycle research and national accounting, research work on behalf of
economic policy, and problems of planning are the main sources of the subjects
dealt with, they necessarily determine the manner of approach adopted by the
authors. Their methods tend to be 'practical' in the sense of not being too far
remote from application to actual economic conditions. In addition they are quanti-
tative.
It is the hope of the editors that the publication of these studies will help to
stimulate the exchange of scientific information and to reinforce international
cooperation in the field of economics.
The Editors
NOTES ON PARTICIPANTS AT THE CONFERENCE,
CONTRIBUTORS TO THE VOLUME,
AND ORGANIZING INSTITUTIONS
IRMA ADELMAN* (Professor of Economics, Department of Agriculture and
Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley)
GILBERTO ANTONELLI* (Professor of Economics, Universita di Bologna and Isti-
tuto Universitario Navale di Napoli; Coordinator, Confe-
rence Scientific Committee)
t DENIS R. BERGMANN* (Chairman, Commission des Comptes de l'Agriculture de
la Nation, Paris; Former Senior Economist, Institut Natio-
nal de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Paris)**
UMBERTO BERTELfc* (Professor of Business Economics and Organization, Poli-
tecnico di Milano)
AMIT BHADURI (Professor of Economics, World Institute for Develop-
ment Economics Research (WIDER), United Nations Uni-
versity, Helsinki)
FRANCESCO BIGNARDI* (Managing Director, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Roma)
JAMES COOMBS* (Bio-Services, King's College, University of London)
ANTONIO M. COSTA* (Professor of Economics, New York University; Special
Counsellor in Economics to the Secretary General, OECD,
Paris)
ROBERT E. EVENSON* (Professor of Economics, Economic Growth Center, Yale
University)
GIOVANNI GALIZZI* (Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Scuo-
la di Specializzazione in Economia del Sistema Agro-Ali-
mentare, Universita Cattolica, Piacenza)
RAUL GARDINI (President, Ferruzzi Group, Ravenna)
ENZO R. GRILLI* (Professorial Lecturer, School of Advanced International
Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, Washington,
D.C.; Assistant Director, Economic and Research Staff,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.)
DAVID 0. HALL* (Professor of Biology, Department of Plant Sciences,
King's College, University of London)
D. GALE JOHNSON* (Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service Professor,
Department of Economics, University of Chicago)
MANFREDO MANFREDI (Managing Director, Barilla S.pA, Parma)
FRANCESCO MASSARI (President, Oltremare S.pA; President, Federazione degli
Industriali deU'Emilia-Romagna, Bologna)
GIUSEPPE MEDICI* (Professor Emeritus of Economics; President, Nomisma)
JOHN W. MELLOR* (Professor of Agricultural Economics; Director, Interna-
tional Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washing-
ton, D.C.)
VIII Notes on Participants
CYNTHIA MORRIS* (Professor of Economics, Smith College, Northampton,
Massachusetts)
NERIO NESI* (President, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Roma)
FILIPPO M. PANDOLFI (Italian Minister of Agriculture, Roma)
VINCENZO PATUELLI (Professor of Agricultural Economics; Representing the
Faculty of Agriculture and the University of Bologna)
CHARLES PEREIRA (Former Director, Agricultural Research Council of Cen-
tral Africa; Former Director, East Mailing Research Sta-
tion, UK)
MICHEL PETIT (Professor of Economics, Ecole Nationale Superieure des
Sciences Agronomiques Appliquees, Dijon; President, In-
ternational Association of Agricultural Economists)
ROMANO PRODI* (Professor of Economics, Universita di Bologna; Chair-
man, Scientific Committee, Nomisma)
ALBERTO QUADRIO-CURZIO* (Professor of Economics, Universita Cattolica, Milano;
Chairman, Conference Scientific Committee)
ANANDARUP RAY* (Senior Economist and Staff Director of the World Deve-
lopment Report 1986, World Bank, Washington, D.C.)
CARLO RONCHI (Managing Director, Consorzio Cooperativo Conserve Ita-
lia, Bologna)
FRED H. SANDERSON* (Senior Fellow, National Center for Food and Agricultural
Policy, Resources for the Future (RFF), Washington, D.C.)
ALEXANDER H. SARRIS (Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Uni-
versity of Athens; Chairman, Centre of Planning and Eco-
nomic Research, Athens)
GIAN TOMMASO (Professor of Plant Genetics and Rector, Universita della
SCARASCIA-MUGNOZZA* Tuscia, Viterbo; President, Istituto Nazionale della Nutri-
zione, Roma)
DIETRICH SCHLIEPHAKE* (Professor of Chemical Technology; Deutsche Gesell-
schaft fur chemisches Apparatewesen e.V. (DECHEMA),
Frankfurt)
LANFRANCO TURCI (President, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna)
ALBERTO VALDES* (Vice President for the Programme, International Asso-
ciation of Agricultural Economists; Director, International
Trade and Food Security Program, International Food Po-
licy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D.C.)
All participants attended the Conference in their personal capacities. Participant's affiliations given are
those at the time of the Conference and not necessarily their present affiliations. An asterisk (*) after a name
indicates a contributor to this volume. All the views expressed in this volume are those of the respective
authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions or companies to which they belong. Nor do they
necessarily reflect the views of the organizing institutions of the Conference.
** Denis R. Bergmann died on January 23 1987, while the volume was being prepared for publication.
The International Conference The Agro-Technological System
towards 2000: A European Perspective, held in Bologna,
September 18th, 19th and 20th 1986, was organized by the
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro and Nomisma
BANCA NAZIONALE DEL LAVORO
a bank on the move
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (BNL) is Italy's largest bank. It is the centerpiece of the BNL
Group, which comprises seven autonomous sections, specializing in long-term lending, and over 70
companies engaged in the various aspects of parabanking such as factoring, leasing and merchant
banking, not to mention a host of subsidiaries and participations in other concerns. It operates in 25
countries all over the world. Its assets and net profits are steadily increasing — the figures for 1986
being, respectively, $ 73.1 billion and $ 19.7 million.
Besides being a protagonist on the domestic financial markets, the Bank is also already firmly
established in European centres such as London and Paris, and is now preparing for the testing
period in 1992, when the EC will initiate the unification of the financial market in the Community
area, and competition in the financial field will be much fiercer. The better to meet this (and other
challenges), the BNL has been streamlining and modernizing its management and emphasizing the
drive towards new technologies, profiting from the recent deregulation of foreign exchange and
capital movements, and broadening and increasing its capital base. It has just started to internation-
alize its capital by offering shares on foreign capital markets and also to «privatize» by reducing the
role of institutional investors, and, in particular, that of the Italian Ministry for the Treasury, which
holds a majority (but a declining one) of voting rights, without, however, restricting, in any way, the
full independence of the management. The BNL, under rules dictated by the Central Monetary Au-
thorities, takes full account of market forces.
Apart from a strong presence in Europe, BNL banking operations are intense in other areas as
well, especially in the Far East, Australia, Latin America and, of course, in the US.
In the Soviet Union, the BNL is present with a public relations office and a trading company
— the SOGECRED — in order to assist and increase economic exchange with Italy, knowing that this
will certainly increase significantly in future years. In China, the BNL was one of the first foreign
banks to set up and has been instrumental in promoting a large volume of trade between this
country and Italy. The Bank also plans, in the near future, to break into the difficult Tokyo market, in
view of the increasingly vital role of Japan in world finance.
In the US, the BNL started operations as far back as 1950. It has since expanded rapidly, and
now has branches from coast to coast, in Atalanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and New York, as
well as subsidiaries in Houston, New York and Wilmington (Delaware) where its commercial paper
operations have been concentrated since 1985. This paper has been given the highest ratings from
Standard & Poor's Corporation and Moody's Investor Service Inc., being, respectively, «A-l+» and
«Prime-l». Since 1985, the issue of commercial paper has been concentrated in the Bank's subsidiary
— BNL US Corporation. Since 1986, the Bank has been rated Aaa by Moody's Investor Service Inc.
The BNL looks forward to benefiting from the stimulating atmosphere of the US financial world.
Board of Directors: Nerio Nesi (President); Salvatore Paolucci (Vice President); Giacomo
Pedde (Managing Director); Orazio Buccisano, Giorgio A. Cassinelli, Gaetano De Campora, Francesco
Del Monte, Angelo Detragiache, Luigi Farace, Antonio Longo, Giorgio Masiero, Giacinto Militello,
Flavio Orlandi, Aldo Palmeri, Giuseppe Pasqua, Antonio Porteri, Ruggero Ravenna, Augusto Schian-
chi, Paolo Sciume, Ferdinando Truzzi (Board Members).
X Banca Nazionale del Lovoro
Nomisma is an economic research institute, founded in 1981 in Bologna, whose capital is
formed by numerous credit institutions. The word «nomisma» in ancient Greek stood for the real
value of things: in this spirit, Nomisma acts as an observatory on the «real economy». Nomisma
carries out research at international, national and local levels on production factors, on the econom-
ics of sectors and firms, on the problems of development and growth, and, in general, on the factors
which influence the structure, conduct and performance of present-day economies.
Nomisma undertakes research in these areas either on its own initiative or on commission for
firms, institutions and organizations, whether private or public. The activities of Nomisma are carried
out within the context of six research divisions.
Economic Development: analyzes the needs and resources of developing countries and com-
pares them with those of Italy. It thereby aims to provide adequate back-up to the technical deci-
sions taken by Italian experts responsible for cooperation and development.
Energy: analyzes the economic, financial, technological and institutional aspects of the energy
problem from a national and international standpoint and attends to the editing of Energia, a review
published by ACI (Italian Automobile Club).
Primary Commodities: carries out and publishes research on the problems of primary com-
modities in industrial and agro-food sectors. With the collaboration of authoritative foreign authors,
it draws up the quarterly report Materie Prime.
Industrial Policy Workshop: carries out research on industrial policies in Italy and abroad. The
results are published in the quarterly report Laboratorio di Politico Industrials
Productivity and Competitiveness: carries out research on the productivity and competitive-
ness of the Italian economic system. The results are published in the quarterly report Produttivita e
Competitivita.
The Economics of the Natural and Cultural Environment: carries out research projects and
evaluates the economic aspects of interventions aimed at employing and preserving environmental
and cultural resources.
Moreover, Nomisma promotes conferences and seminars on economic and scientific problems
of particular importance.
Board of Directors: Giuseppe Medici (President); Francesco Bignardi (Vice President and Ma-
naging Director); Orazio Buccisano, Nicola Cacace, Romeo Dalla Chiesa, Raul Gardini, Felice Gianani,
Antonio Longo, Luigi Lucchini, Cassio Morselli, Alberto Mucci, Francesco Parrillo, Vincenzo Patuelli,
Jose' Angel Sanchez Asiain, Luigi Scotti (Board Members).
Scientific Committee: Romano Prodi (Chairman); Alberto Quadrio-Curzio (Vice Chairman); Pa-
trizio Bianchi, Sebastiano Brusco, Francesco Cesarini, Alberto C16, Fabio Gobbo, Bruno Lamborghini,
Luigi Prospertiti, Cesare Sacchi, Angelo Tantazzi (Board Members); Giovanni Pecci (Secretary).
Forewords
Nerio Nesi
Perhaps the aspiration to retrace its origins incited the BNL to initiate, together with
Nomisma, a profound reflection on what is taking place in the world of agriculture at the
threshold of the year 2000. This Bank - it should not be forgotten - was set up more than
70 years ago, precisely to resolve the financial problems of cooperatives, consisting of farm
labourers and diggers, which emerged and diffused at the beginning of the century through-
out the countryside of the Po valley.
This «vocation», however, does not explain everything. The decision to stimulate
such a wide and articulated debate on «agro-technological systems» has been determined
by a conviction: we are facing a wave of innovations which cross sectoral boundaries and
geographical barriers; this wave affects, with few exceptions, economic agents in every
production sector. Its thrust is transversal, sweeping across every sector, from primary to
tertiary, without respecting any hierarchies. This «wave» must be confronted; the task can-
not be postponed.
This is why Nomisma and the BNL intend to underline how, in the world of agricul-
ture, progress in cultivation techniques, increments in productivity, and employment issues
all acquire, day by day, thanks to new technologies, a specific weight and prospects both
hitherto unimagined. The entire economic system undergoes their influence. He who, until
now, has worked and lived according to a logic of «watertight compartments» must think
again. Both the growing interdependence of economic activities and the development of
exchanges between producers and of trade between sectors, a development favoured by
new technological equilibria, should be followed with attention. Their economic significance
needs to be understood.
Now that we have entered the post-industrial era, traditional points of reference
change. Operational, organizational and managerial criteria are altered. All these changes
affect farms. However, banks are also involved in this process, both in Italy and abroad.
These are the issues which world famous scholars discuss in this volume. Our hope, or
rather our conviction, is that the research work published here will not be without impact
on the «real economy».
Francesco Bignardi
The BNL has contributed in three ways to the publishing of this volume: as majority
shareholder of Nomisma; above all, as patron, together with Romano Prodi, of this centre
XVIII
Forewords
of research on the real economy which has rapidly asserted itself through the high stan-
dards of the projects undertaken and the reports published; and as the body which com-
missioned the Conference on which this volume is based, the third of its kind since the
research institute was set up.
In 1982, the «World Conference on Gold» was held, which stimulated a series of
contributions of such a high standard that they were published by the Oxford University
Press and diffused world-wide. It would not overstate the case to affirm that this volume
represents, and will continue to represent for some considerable time, a cornerstone for
those interested, for various reasons, in the roles that the metal par excellence can play in
national and international contexts. The second BNL-Nomisma Conference was held at Mi-
lan in December 1983, and focused on the theme technological Innovation and Production
Structure: the Position of Italy». 4 posteriori, it can be affermed that the contributions
assembled for that event, published in a volume by II Mulino, can be considered, to no
small extent, the interpretative key for that process of rationalization of the national indus-
trial system which some foreign commentators have defined as the second Italian econom-
ic miracle.
Having recalled the two previous BNL-Nomisma conferences and volumes, it might
seem difficult for this publication to match their results. I therefore wish to express my
gratitude to the authors of the chapters contained in this volume whose expert knowledge
ensures its success. The patronage of the EC Commission and the collaboration of the
Regione Emilia-Romagna and the University of Bologna were important elements in the
organization of the Conference and further guarantee the excellence of the research work
carried out. This volume, published by North Holland, has required a long process of in-
depth analysis backed up by the international consultation of scholars. Without retracing
the various stages, I would like to point out, as representative of the Bank which commis-
sioned the work, that it would have been difficult to perfect further its final configuration.
This conviction should further lend support to the certainty that this publication will en-
counter a positive response, which would reward the commitment and enthusiasm of those
at Nomisma who have helped to produce it. To these people, we at the BNL wish to
express our gratitude.
Giuseppe Medici
When the World Conference on Food was held in 1974, in Rome, the first enemy
which needed to be defeated was world hunger, further aggravated by the very strong
increase in population. A decade was enough to radically change the situation. On the one
hand, many developing countries managed to achieve relative autonomy in food and, on
the other hand, especially in North America and in the EC, huge surpluses built up. Agro-
food problems today are qualitatively different with respect to those of ten years ago. In
fact, if Africa is excluded, the most severe food shortages can be considered to have been
eliminated or to be well on their way to being overcome. The problem which we are
therefore facing, at present, is no longer one of an agriculture which must, at all costs,
produce an increasing quantity of goods to satisfy a growing demand, but that of adopting
a domestic and international policy which, while avoiding the formation of huge surpluses,
encourages the evolution of the agro-food system towards products both adapted to the
markets and with decreasing costs.