the 2013 redistribution - ABC

123 Pages·2014·0.77 MB·English

2013 VICTORIAN REDISTRIBUTION

ANALYSIS OF NEW ELECTORAL BOUNDARIES

CONTENTS PAGE

Introduction 1

Summary of Political Impact 4

New electoral pendulum 6

Summary of Changes to Assembly Districts 7

Full listing for new Assembly Districts 13

Abolished Districts 113

Transfers of old electorate enrolments 116

Legislative Council Changes 119
The Author

Antony Green is an Election Analyst with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and has
worked for the ABC on every federal, state and territory election coverage since 1989.

Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and
computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics.

Antony produces regular publications on electoral matters for the New South Wales
Parliamentary Library.

Party Abbreviations

ALP Labor Party
CA Country Alliance
CDP Christian Democratic Party
DLP Democratic Labor Party
FFP Family First
GRN The Greens
IND Independents
LIB Liberal Party
NAT The Nationals
SA Socialist Alliance
ASXP Australian Sex Party
OTH Others

Comments and Feedback

This publication has been prepared with reference to the electoral maps made available by
the Electoral Boundaries Commission. However, without access to registered voter lists
indicating where people cast their vote, re-allocating polling places to new electorates is an
imprecise science, especially when polling places need to be split between electorates.
Comments and suggestions on the transfer of polling places are most welcome. Messages
can be e-mailed to me at [email protected].
2013 Victorian Redistribution
INTRODUCTION

This publication assesses the political impact of the new Victorian electoral boundaries,
proclaimed on 17 October 2013. The new boundaries will be used for the first time at the 2014
state election.

The publication is based on the results of the 2010 election and does not provide predictions
for the 2014 election. The estimated new margins listed in this publication are best thought of
as estimated results for the 2010 election had it been fought on the new boundaries.

However, the estimated new margins cannot take into account the differences in candidate
and campaign effort that would have occurred if the 2010 election had been fought on the
new boundaries. The difficulty of splitting polling place catchment areas to match new
electoral boundaries, as well as allocating declaration votes to new electorates, means the
estimated margins in this publication should be treated as approximations.

CALCULATIONS AND METHODOLOGY

To calculate the political impact of the new boundaries, the results of the 2010 election have
been re-assigned to match the new electoral boundaries. This required a series of
assumptions to be made as part of the calculations. These assumptions concern whether
votes are cast for candidates or parties, how to transfer polling places between old and new
electorates, and how to apportion declaration vote between new electorates.

Votes for Candidates versus Votes for Parties

An assumption has been made that votes are cast for parties rather than candidates. This is a
reasonable assumption, but it cannot correct for the personal support for popular sitting
members, or correct for parties running minimal campaigns in their opponent's safe seats.

Transferring Booths to Match the New Boundaries

The Electoral Boundaries Commission report included tables of enrolment transfers between
old and new electorates. The transfers, along with the published maps, have been used as a
guide to transfer polling place results from the 2010 election to match the new electorates.
Where the transfers and maps suggest the catchment area of a polling place should be
divided, an estimate has been made to divide the results of a polling place between new
electorates.

Dealing with the Declaration Vote

For calculation purposes, all declaration votes (pre-poll, postal, absent etc) have been
accumulated into a single total and apportioned between new electorates.

These accumulated totals have been transferred in proportion to the transfer of enrolment
from each old to new electorates. However, the vote by party in the declaration vote has been
weighted to reflect the vote by party in polling places transferred between electorates.

As an example, the old electorate of Macedon has re-drawn, with around half of its voters
remaining in the new Macedon, while the other half now forms part of the new electorate of
Sunbury. The polling places in those parts of Macedon transferred to Sunbury voted more
strongly for the Labor Party in 2010 than areas that have remained with Macedon. As a result,
in dividing the declaration vote between Sunbury and Macedon, the pattern of polling place
results has been reflected in the declaration vote transferred. Sunbury has therefore been
allocated a higher proportion of Labor vote and lower proportion of Liberal vote in the divided
declaration vote compared to the declaration vote transferred to Macedon.

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2013 Victorian Redistribution

By-elections and Changes in Party Membership

Calculations in this publication are based on the result of the 2010 election. They do not use
the results of the four by-elections conducted since the 2010 election. The by-elections were
in Labor held Broadmeadows (February 2011), Niddrie (March 2012), Melbourne (July 2012)
and Lyndhurst (April 2013). Labor retained all four seats and none of the by-elections were
contested by the Liberal Party.

The publication also does not take account of the change in party status of Frankston MLA Mr
Geoff Shaw. Mr Shaw was elected as a Liberal candidate at the 2010 election, but now sits as
an Independent. Calculations in this publication indicate that based on the 2010 election, the
Liberal margin for Frankston falls from 2.1% to 0.4% based on the new boundaries

Two-Party Preferred versus Two-Candidate Preferred Results

The two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is defined as the final count of votes
between the two remaining candidates after the exclusion and distribution as preferences of
votes for all other candidates. At each stage of the distribution of preferences, the candidate
with the fewest votes is excluded and his or her ballot papers re-examined to determine the
candidate with the next available preference. To achieve victory, a candidate must receive
more than 50% of the total two-candidate preferred vote. Where a candidate achieves more
than 50% of the vote before the final distribution, the two-candidate preferred count is
continued to completion for information purposes.

The two-party preferred count represents a distribution of preferences between candidates
representing the Labor Party and the Coalition. Candidates are again excluded based on
lowest progressive vote, though at some point the second lowest candidate is excluded to
retain candidates representing Labor and the Coalition. The two-party preferred count plays
no part in determining the winning candidate but is undertaken for information purposes.

In most cases, the two-party preferred result will be the same as the two-candidate preferred
result. At the 2010 election, 82 of the 88 electorates finished as two-party preferred contests
between Labor and Coalition candidates. In Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote and Richmond,
the final two-candidate preferred contest was between Labor and Green candidates. In
Gippsland East and Mildura the final contest was between National and Independent
candidates. A separate two-party preferred count was conducted between Labor and the
Coalition in these six contests.

In Bendigo West the final two-candidate preferred count saw Labor retain the seat with a
2.9% margin versus the National Party. An alternative count between Labor and Liberal
candidates produced a Labor margin of 8.0% based on differential flows of third party
preferences. Margins based on both counts are referred to where relevant in this publication.

Two-party preferred margins are provided in this publication for all 88 new electorates.
Alternative two-candidate preferred margins have been calculated between Labor and the
Greens for the electorates of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote and Richmond.

Legislative Council Calculations

Percentage first preference votes for each party have been calculated for each new
Legislative Council region. The same calculation methods have been used based on the
same polling place transfers. Estimates can be found on page 119.

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2013 Victorian Redistribution
Electorate Name Changes

Of the 88 Legislative Assembly electorates, 73 retain the same name, though some
continuing electorates have undergone extensive boundary changes. Fifteen electorate
names have disappeared, and fifteen new names appear or re-appear on the state’s electoral
map.

For the purposes of this publication, I have treated ten of these fifteen electorates as being
changes in name, while I have identified five electorates as having been abolished and five as
newly created.

See the summary of the political impact on page 4 for the details of electorates classed as
abolished, created and re-named.

Throughout this publication the new names for electorates will generally be used.

Acknowledgements and Disclaimer

All estimates have been calculated based on the actual results of the 2010 election and with
reference to data and maps provided by the Electoral Boundaries Commission. My thanks go
to the staff the Victorian Electoral Commission and the Victorian Electoral Boundaries
Commission. My particular thanks go to Dr Paul Thornton-Smith for his assistance with
sourcing data.

However, responsibility for all calculations, and the assumption underlying them, must rest
with the author.

Antony Green
November 2013

Update – August 2014
When originally published in November 2013, there was an error in the re-calculated informal
vote listed for each electorate. This has been corrected with this version of the publication. No
other calculations were affected.

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2013 Victorian Redistribution
Summary of the Political Impact

Party Composition of Legislative Assembly based on Old and New Boundaries
S e a t s H e l d B y P a r t y
Liberal National Labor Others Total
Old Boundaries 35 10 43 .. 88
New Boundaries 39 9 40 .. 88
Including Geoff Shaw resignation 38 9 40 1 88

To summarise the overall changes, one Liberal seat has been abolished in Melbourne's east
as well as one National seat in country Victoria. Two notionally Labor-held electorates have
been created in Melbourne's western suburbs. Major boundary changes have also resulted in
five Labor-held seats becoming notionally Liberal-held.

While in seat numbers Labor has lost a net five seats, the swing needed for Labor to achieve
a majority in the Legislative Assembly has declined.

On the old boundaries Labor needed to gain two seats on a uniform swing of 1.2% for
majority government, on the new boundaries it needs five seats but on a uniform swing of
0.9%. Two of the seats Labor needs to gain in this range currently have sitting Labor
members.

On both the old and new pendulums there are 16 seats with margins of 2.5% or under. On
the old boundaries there were five Liberal and 11 Labor seats in this range. One the new
notional margins, there are now nine Liberal seats in this category to seven Labor seats. Of
the nine Liberal seats in this range, five currently are represented by Labor members.

A summary of the major changes are:

 Of the 88 Legislative Assembly districts, 73 retain their old name while 15 electorate
names disappear and 15 new or revived electorate names appear. Of the 15 name
changes, five are treated in this publication as the abolition and creation of new seats,
while ten have been treated as name changes.
 In rural Victoria, the National held electorates of Rodney and Swan Hill have been
abolished and replaced by the new seat of Murray Plains. National held Benalla has
been abolished and a new notionally National held seat of Euroa created. In addition,
boundary changes have seen Murray Valley re-named Ovens Valley.
 The marginal Liberal seat of Seymour has been abolished and the new and safer Liberal
seat of Eildon created further east.
 In Melbourne's east, the Liberal seat of Doncaster has been abolished.
 Two new and notionally Labor held seats have been created in Melbourne's west,
Sunbury in the north-west and Werribee in the south-west.
 In Ballarat, Ballarat East has been re-named Buninyong and is strengthened for Labor,
while Ballarat West becomes Wendouree and switches from being marginal Labor to
notionally Liberal held.
 In Melbourne's east and south-east, the re-arrangement of boundaries sees the following
changes: Clarinda (previously Clayton), Croydon (Kilsyth), Keysborough (Lyndhurst),
Ringwood (Mitcham) and Rowville (Scoresby). None change party status though the
notional Liberal margin in Ringwood is 6.3% compared to 2.8% for Mitcham.
 In Melbourne's west, St Albans replaces Derrimut and Sydenham replaces Keilor. Both
remain safe Labor seats.

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2013 Victorian Redistribution
As well as Ballarat West/Wendouree, four other electorates change party status on the new
boundaries.

 Geelong-based Bellarine was won by Labor with a margin of 1.4% in 2010, but on new
boundaries becomes a notional Liberal seat with a margin of 2.5%.
 Changes to the boundaries of Monbulk see its Labor margin of 1.9% replaced by a
notional Liberal margin of 1.1%.
 A major re-drawing of Ripon sees the Labor margin of 2.7% become an estimated
Liberal margin of 1.6%.
 Having been more than 60% over-quota on the old boundaries, a massive re-drawing of
Yan Yean sees the Labor margin of 4.1% become a very narrow estimated Liberal margin
of 0.1%

Several other electorates have the margin of their holding party significantly changed.

 The Liberal margin in Carrum declines from 2.0% to an estimated 0.3%.
 The Labor margin in Essendon rises from 2.4% to an estimated 4.3%.
 The Liberal margin in Frankston declines from 2.1% to 0.4%. Note that sitting MLA Geoff
Shaw now sits as an Independent.
 The Labor margin in Geelong increases from 2.1% to an estimated 4.0%.
 The Labor margin in Macedon increases from 1.3% to an estimated 2.3%.
 The Labor margin in Mulgrave declines substantially from 8.5% to 2.4%.

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2013 Victorian Redistribution
New Legislative Assembly Electoral Pendulum
Electorate % Margin Electorate % Margin
Liberal/National Seats (39/9) Labor Seats (40)
Murray Plains (NAT) 30.2 Northcote (10.3 v GRN) 25.5
Shepparton (NAT) 25.9 Brunswick (3.6 v GRN) 25.1
Gippsland East (NAT) 23.1 Thomastown 21.6
Gippsalnd South (NAT) 22.5 Richmond (6.4 v GRN) 20.4
Lowan (NAT) 21.9 Preston 20.2
Malvern 20.5 Broadmeadows 20.0
Ovens Valley (NAT) 19.2 Pascoe Vale 18.5
Warrandyte 17.2 Kororoit 17.5
Hawthorn 16.6 Mill Park 16.9
Mornington 16.2 Yuroke 16.0
Narracan 16.0 Footscray 15.9
Benambra 15.9 St Albans 14.0
Kew 15.7 Dandenong 14.0
Sandringham 15.6 Lara 13.8
Bulleen 15.1 Melton 13.6
Mildura (NAT) 14.5 Melbourne (4.7 v GRN) 13.5
Brighton 14.3 Williamstown 13.2
Polwarth 13.8 Clarinda 12.4
Nepean 13.7 Altona 12.4
Euroa (NAT) 13.6 Sydenham 11.5
Morwell (NAT) 13.3 Werribee 11.4
Rowville 13.1 Tarneit 11.0
Evelyn 12.6 Bundoora 10.9
Bass 12.4 Keysborough 9.5
Croydon 12.2 Narre Warren South 7.4
South-West Coast 11.9 Sunbury 6.5
Ferntree Gully 11.5 Oakleigh 5.1
Caulfield 9.8 Narre Warren North 4.8
Hastings 9.6 Niddrie 4.5
Box Hill 9.4 Essendon 4.3
Gembrook 8.8 Geelong 4.0
Mount Waverley 8.6 Bendigo East 3.2
Eildon 7.7 Bendigo West 3.1
Bayswater 6.8 Mulgrave 2.4
Ringwood 6.3 Macedon 2.3
Burwood 6.3 Ivanhoe 1.8
South Barwon 4.9 Buninyong 1.6
Prahran 4.7 Cranbourne 1.1
Forest Hill 3.5 Albert Park 0.9
Bellarine 2.5 Eltham 0.8
Ripon 1.6
Mordialloc 1.5
Monbulk 1.1
Bentleigh 0.9
Frankston 0.4
Carrum 0.3
Yan Yean 0.1
Wendouree 0.1

Note: Underlining indicates seats changing party status on the new boundaries. Except for
Independent and Green seats, all margins shown are 2-party preferred estimates. Wendouree
change is compared to abolished electorate of Ballarat West. Frankston MP Geoff Shaw now
sits in the Assembly as an Independent.
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2013 Victorian Redistribution
SUMMARY OF CHANGES

Electorate Name Old Margin New Margin Details of Changes
Albert Park ALP 2.1% ALP 0.9% Loses Elwood to Brighton while the strip of high
rise between St Kilda and Queens Roads is
transferred to Prahran. Gains St Kilda west of St
Kilda Road from Prahran.
Altona ALP 12.0% ALP 12.4% Loses Hoppers Crossing and areas generally
north of the freeway and railway line to Tarneit.
Gains Seaholme from Williamstown.
Ballarat East ALP 1.5% Abolished Replaced by new seat of Buninyong with an ALP
margin of 1.6%.
Ballarat West ALP 1.1% Abolished Replaced by new seat of Wendouree with a
notional Liberal margin of 0.1%.
Bass LIB 12.6% LIB 12.4% Loses Pakenham Lakes to Gembrook while
gaining parts of Pakenham south of the Princess
Highway. Loses the area along the Princes
Highway between Nar Nar Goon and Bunyip to
Narracan.
Bayswater LIB 10.6% LIB 6.8% Shifts east and north, losing Wantirna to Ferntree
Gully, gaining parts of Boronia and Bayswater in
the process.
Bellarine ALP 1.4% LIB 2.5% Loses solid Labor voting territory in Newcomb
and Whittington to Geelong while gaining
Barwon Heads from South Barwon. This
overturns Labor's narrow margin and makes
Bellarine a notional Liberal seat.
Benalla NAT 23.1% Abolished Largely replaced by the new seat of Euroa with a
National margin of 13.6%.
Benambra LIB 16.5% LIB 15.9% Gains Rutherglen from Murray Valley.
Bendigo East ALP 3.8% ALP 3.2% Only minor changes.
Bendigo West ALP 2.9% ALP 3.1% Only minor changes. National Party finished
second to Labor at the 2010 election. Labor
margin would be 8.2% versus a Liberal
candidate.
Bentleigh LIB 0.8% LIB 0.9% Gains Hampton East from Brighton, loses parts
of Bentleigh East to Clarinda.
Box Hill LIB 13.8% LIB 9.4% Shifts east, gaining Blackburn from Mitcham,
losing Balwyn North to Kew and areas south of
Canterbury Road to Burwood and Hawthorn.
Brighton LIB 17.6% LIB 14.3% Gains Elwood from Albert Park, loses Hampton
East to Bentleigh.
Broadmeadows ALP 21.0% ALP 20.0% Gains parts of Fawkner from Thomastown, loses
parts of Glenroy to Pascoe Vale.
Brunswick ALP 25.2% ALP 25.1% Minor boundary changes with Melbourne and
Richmond to the south. Labor margin versus the
Greens increases from 3.3% to 3.6%.
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2013 Victorian Redistribution
Electorate Name Old Margin New Margin Details of Changes
Bulleen LIB 14.7% LIB 15.1% Gains parts of Doncaster with the abolition of the
electorate of Doncaster.
Bundoora ALP 7.6% ALP 10.9% Shifts north, losing parts of Macleod and
Yallambie to Ivanhoe, gaining areas from Mill
Park in the north.
Buninyong New seat ALP 1.6% New name for Ballarat East. Loses Creswick to
Ripon and Daylesford and Kyneton to Macedon.
Gains Sebastopol from Ballarat West and
smaller areas from Ripon and Melton.
Burwood LIB 5.9% LIB 6.3% Minor boundary changes in the north with
Hawthorn and Box Hill.
Carrum LIB 2.0% LIB 0.3% Loses Aspendale, Edithvale and parts of
Chelsea to Mordialloc, gains Carrum Downs and
Sandhurst from Cranbourne.
Caulfield LIB 11.5% LIB 9.8% Minor boundary changes with Oakleigh and
Prahran.
Clarinda New seat ALP 12.4% Gains around ten thousand voters in the south
from Bentleigh and loses Clayton North to
Oakleigh. Adopts new name with the margin
declining from 15.3% for the old Clayton.
Clayton ALP 15.3% Abolished Re-named Clarinda.
Cranbourne ALP 1.8% ALP 1.1% Shrinks substantially to include just the built up
areas around Cranbourne and Lyndhurst, losing
Carrum Downs and Sandhurst to Carrum and
Langwarrin to Hastings.
Croydon New seat LIB 12.2% The abolition of Doncaster sees Warrandyte
move west, resulting in Kilsyth moving north and
being re-named Croydon. Safer for the Liberal
Party than Kilsyth's 10.4% margin.
Dandenong ALP 13.9% ALP 14.0% Minor changes to boundaries.
Derrimut ALP 14.4% Abolished Re-named St Albans.
Doncaster LIB 17.6% Abolished Divided between Bulleen and Warrandyte.
Eildon New seat LIB 7.7% Takes in the rural and forested eastern ends of
Seymour and Gembrook, also including parts of
Benambra and Yan Yean.
Eltham ALP 0.8% ALP 0.8% Gains around 5,000 voters from Yan Yean.
Essendon ALP 2.4% ALP 4.3% Gains Flemington and Newmarket from
Melbourne, loses parts of Aberfeldie to Niddrie.
Euroa New seat NAT 13.6% Largely replaces the abolished electorate of
Benalla, though it also includes almost as many
voters from the rural end of the abolished Liberal
seat of Seymour.
Evelyn LIB 13.5% LIB 12.6% Loses Wonga Park to Warrandyte.
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