Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources : A Thermodynamic Cradle-to-Cradle Assessment

670 Pages·2014·10.28 MB·English

by  Antonio Valero Capilla

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Valero Capilla, Antonio, author.
Thanatia : the destiny of the Earth's mineral resources : a thermodynamic cradle-to-cradle assessment /
by Antonio Valero Capilla (CIRCE - Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain) & Alicia Valero Delgado
(CIRCE - Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain).
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-9814273930 (hardback : alk. paper)
1. Geology, Economic. 2. Mines and mineral resources. 3. Laws of thermodynamics. I. Valero Delgado,
Alicia, author. II. Title.
TN260.V28 2014
333.8'5--dc23
2014007314
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
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To María Jesús, Stefan and Nico
Commemorating the 20th Anniversary
of CIRCE
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Preface
Rationale and history
Theextractionoffossilfuelsandmineralresourceshasgrownexponentiallysincethe
early20thcenturyandfarfromdecelerating,itisexpectedtoincreaseinthecoming
decades. “The Limits to Growth” (Meadows et al., 1972) already alerted that if
demandofmetalsandfossilfuelsmaintainedthesametrend,mankindwouldsooner
orlaterbeclosetocollapse. Thebookprovokedastrongcontroversybetweenthose
that considered that the Earth was plentiful of non-renewable resources (techno-
optimists) and those who believed in the need for a rational management of the
planetary mineral endowment.
Fortyyearsonsocietyhasexperiencedanunparalleledeconomicoptimism(espe-
ciallyintheninetiesandthefirstfewyearsofthe21stcentury)andalsothebiggest
economic crisis since the Wall Street crash in 1929. At the same time, comput-
ers, smartphones, the electric car, renewable energies, new materials and electronic
appliances are renovating the optimism for a brighter future. Yet all these techno-
artifactsaredeeplyconnectedtothemineralendowmentoftheEarth. Elementslike
indium,gallium,germanium,rareearths,tantalum,zirconium,cobalt,tin,precious
andplatinumgroupmetals,lithium,tellurium,phosphorous,etc,areprofuselyused
without or with only minor recycling.
How long can society survive without a rational management of these scarce
resources? Today, technology is employing all elements of the periodic table and
their use is growing exponentially. Yet this fact is barely discussed in conventional
ecological discourse that preferably focuses on climate change, loss of biodiversity,
deforestation or ecosystems destruction. Instead, the problem of a future lack of
abiotic resources is “readily solved” with the ideas that the Earth’s crust is almost
unexplored (oceans, the poles, deep underground mines, etc) and that technology
“will overcome” any potential market disruption. The truth however is quite diffe-
rent, with mining companies telling another story. Ore grades are declining, which
involvesevergreateramountsofenergy, waterandwasterockperunitofextracted
material,aswellasagreaterenvironmentalandsocialimpactwhichleadstoradical
opposition to the opening of new mines. Not to mention corruption and wars for
vii
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viii Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth’s Mineral Resources
“conflictminerals”,somethingwhichisbecomingquiteanissue. Besidesthat,coun-
tries with important endowments of sought after minerals (especially those with a
strong economy) have a greater consciousness of such a scarcity and consequently
increasetaxesonminingorapplyquotastotheexportofrawmaterials. Theconse-
quences are clear: society must treat minerals as an important issue that needs an
integrated global approach, as it did with climate change when the United Nations
tooktheleadwiththeIPCC.Thisapproachwillsomedayentailaglobalaccounting
system which will pave the way for its inclusion in nation to nation environmental-
economicaccountsandperhapseventuallyinaunifiedmanagementoftheplanetary
mineral endowment.
Unfortunately matters like assessing depletion, dispersion and scarcity are far
fromeasy. Onelacksindicatorsthatcouldbeusedtomakeaconsciousandyetsim-
ple accounting of the year to year loss of the mineral endowment on Earth. Money,
which is typically used, is not a good indicator. After all, what is the monetary
value of minerals yet to be extracted or even discovered? Mass, also proposed as
a yardstick, does not apprehend quality but quantity, something which could be
solved using a thermodynamic approach. The purpose of this book therefore is to
developarigorousthermodynamicmethodtoassessthelossofabioticresourceson
Earth.
Thisendeavourbeganin1999withtheecologicaleconomistJoséM.Naredo1and
AntonioValeroonthepublicationof“Desarrollo Económico y Deterioro Ecólogico”
(Economic Development and Ecological Deterioration), in which the broad outline
of the book that the reader now holds in his or her hands was defined.
Previously, the exergy cost proposed by Valero et al. (1986) in the General
Theory of Exergy Saving2 theoretically connected the economic cost to that of the
morecomprehensivemeasurementofenergy,thatistosayexergy. Costisformedby
the sum of resources necessary to produce something and all the physical resources
canbepreciselymeasuredwithexergy. Therefore, aseveryexergylossisaphysical
indication of irreversibility, the roots of Economics with those of Thermodynamics
were grafted. Thus a solid base for the new discipline of Thermoeconomics, first
developed by authors such as M. Tribus, R. Evans, Y. El-Sayed, R. Gaggioli, J.
Szargut, R. Le Goff, G. Tsatsaronis, M. von Spakovsky, Ch. Frangopoulos and An.
Valero among others in the 1980/90s to optimise thermal systems, was established.
Itthenbecameapparentthatthesearchforthe“processofcostformation” wasnot
amatterofonlyoptimisingenergysystemsbutaprofoundreflectionofthephysical
bases of Economics.
Indeed concepts like resource consumption, the management of scarcity, cost,
price and value belong to Economics. Whilst concepts like irreversibility, the
destruction of resources, the optimisation of systems to minimise losses, energy,
1JoséManuelNaredoobtainedtheSpanish National Award on Economics and Environment in
2000andtheInternational Award on Geocritics in2008.
2ThistheoryreceivedtheASMEEdwardF.ObertAwardin1986.
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Preface ix
entropy and exergy are essential components of Thermodynamics. There were thus
evident connections and coincidences with words that diverged in their definition.
This is something that became clear for Georgescu-Roegen (1971) who provided
the foundation for the interpretation (and critique) of Economics from a Thermo-
dynamic perspective in his “The Entropy Law and the Economic Process”.
Back in 1971 of course, Thermoeconomics had only just been proposed by M.
Tribus, Y. El Sayed and R. Evans and still had much to be developed. The ideas
at that time were far from concrete and were applied without any corresponding
rigourous definitions. Meanwhile, Georgescu-Roegen and the pleiad of ecological
economists that followed his trail were thus unable to take full advantage of the
newintellectualpathsandpursuitsthatThermoeconomicswasopeningup. Indeed
Thermodynamics was widely used as a source of metaphors rather than a powerful
quantitative instrument. Accordingly, whilst terms such as “low entropy” resources
or“irreversibility” hadbecomecommonpropertyofecologicaleconomists, theiruse
did not go beyond attempting to explain further those concepts that had always
fallen under the umbrella of classical economics. In this respect, the book by J.M.
Naredo and A. Valero was a piece of the puzzle in the link between Economics
and Thermodynamics. Unfortunately, as it was written in Spanish the book was
inaccessible for the majority of ecological economists.
Despite this fact, Naredo and Valero (1999) showed that in uniting the words
“cost” and “exergy” into a sole concept carried with it the implicit message that
Economics and Thermodynamics could walk hand in hand into a new branch of
knowledge. This is because each time society produces something, a simultaneous
irreversible deterioration of a given resource occurs. Furthermore, if Economics is
used to explain “value creation”, Thermodynamics can describe and quantify the
“resource destruction” that comes about in the creation of that value. They are, in
short, the Ying and Yang. All benefits can thus be associated with loss because as
all products sooner or later deteriorate, they all at some point become lost. This
fact is of paramount importance.
Todaygovernments,companiesandevenpeoplearecreatingmoneyoutofdebt.
Thisdebtissupposedlytobepaidinthefuturewithworkthatwillunavoidablyuse
naturalresourceswhichinturnneedtobeextracted. Therefore,Thermodynamicsis
telling us that humanity is nothing short of mortgaging the Planet’s non-renewable
resources and driving their depletion. Economic development, with its detrimental
ecological impact has thus its “dark side of the Moon”. In summary, people pay
people, not Nature, meanwhile Earth deteriorates. This is why this book addresses
athermodynamicwayofassessingitsabioticdegradation,notitseconomicgrowth.
Unfortunately,Thermodynamicsisnotaneasysciencetounderstandandneeds
furtherinvestigationinitsapplicationsandconnectionswithothersciences. Agood
conceptualbridgeisexergysinceitisaphysicalmeasureofdistinction. Peoplevalue
distinction and put prices on it. It is only perceived when one compares something
with its surroundings. Therefore, distinction is deeply related to economic value