Testing capital account liberalization without forward rates : Japan and Chile in the 1970s

46 Pages·1992·1.6 MB·English

by  Maloney, William F

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Testing Capital Account Liberalization Without Forward
Rates: Japan and Chile in the 1970's
William F. Maloney
Department ofEconomics
Bureau of Economic and Business Research
College ofCommerce and Business Administration
University of Illinois at L'rbana-Champaign

BEBR
FACULTY WORKING PAPER NO. 92-0159
College of Commerce and Business Administration
University of Illinois at Qrbana-Champaign
September 1992
Testing Capital Account Liberalization Without Forward
Rates: Japan and Chile in the 1970's
William F. Maloney
Department of Economics

Testing Capital Account Liberalization Without Forward Rates:
Japan and Chile in the 1970's*
William F. Maloney
University ofIllinois
Urbana-Champaign
August 24, 1992
Abstract: The paper presents an alternative to tests of Covered Interest
Parity for establishing the impact of liberalizing the capital account when
credible proxies for expectations ofdepreciation are not available. A model
of domestic interest rate determination during liberalization is tested using
a variety of tests for structural break on the Japanese experience in 1979-80
first with, then without, a foreign return with identical inferences. It is then
applied to the Chilean liberalization from 1979-82 for which forward rates
are not available. It is shown that Chilean interest rates behave as if
determined domestically, despite vast inflows, until very late in the reform
period. The way in which capital enters an economy, and particularly the
elasticity of inflows with respect to interest differentials, is confirmed to be
more important than the amount in determining whether interest parity will
hold.
My thanks to Richard Meese, Dale Henderson, Menzie ( limn. Ana Dolores Novaesand Helen Popper for helpful commentson
earlier versions and to Hernando Vargas for inspired research assistance. I also gratefully acknowledge financial support from the
Tinker Foundation and the University ofIllinois Research Board.