Table Of ContentTargeting Civilians in War
A volume in the series
Cornell Studies in Security Affairs
edited by Robert J. Art
Robert Jervis
Stephen M. Walt
A list of titles in this series is available at
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu.
Targeting
Civilians
in War
Alexander B. Downes
Cornell University Press
ithaca and london
Copyright © 2008 by Cornell University
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book,
or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without
permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address
Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca,
New York 14850.
First published 2008 by Cornell University Press
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Downes, Alexander B., 1969-
Targeting civilians in war / Alexander B. Downes.
p. cm. — (Cornell studies in security affairs)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978–0–8014–4634–4 (cloth : alk. paper)
1. Civilian war casualties—History—20th century. 2.
War victims—History—20th century. 3. War and society—
History—20th century. 4. Politics and war—History—20th
century. 5. Military history, Modern—20th century. I.
Title. II. Series.
U21.2.D587 2008
172'.42—dc22 2007040729
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Cloth printing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
Acknowledgments vii
Introduction 1
1. Defi ning and Explaining Civilian Victimization 13
2. Statistical Tests: Civilian Victimization, Mass Killing,
and Civilian Casualties in Interstate Wars 42
3. The Starvation Blockades of World War I: Britain
and Germany 83
4. Strategic Bombing in World War II: The Firebombing
of Japan and the Blitz 115
5. Guerrilla Warfare, Counterinsurgency, and Civilian
Victimization: The Second Anglo-Boer War 156
6. Territorial Annexation and Civilian Victimization:
The Founding of the State of Israel, 1947–49 178
7. Negative Cases: Why Civilian Victimization
Doesn’t Happen 210
Conclusion 243
Notes 259
Index 309
[v]
Acknowledgments
Over the course of researching and writing this book, I have benefi ted
from the help and advice of many people. I owe a special debt of gratitude
to John Mearsheimer. I arrived at the University of Chicago in the mid-1990s
as a former classical musician nervously embarking on what I hoped would
be a second career as a political scientist. John took a chance that some-
one who had until recently spent much of his time practicing the works of
Mozart, Beethoven, and Brahms could become an international relations
scholar. I am immensely grateful that he did. John read and commented on
numerous drafts of this manuscript, giving feedback that was always help-
ful, and improved the fi nal product immeasurably.
This book literally would not have been possible without the input of
Robert Pape, who suggested the question to me in a brainstorming ses-
sion in January 2001. “What if you could show that democracies were more
moral in the way that they fought wars? Now that would be really some-
thing,” he mused. I came to a different conclusion regarding the impact of
democratic war-fi ghting on civilians, but that in no way diminished Bob’s
enthusiasm for the project as it progressed. I thank him for his support.
Charles Glaser and Stathis Kalyvas helped sharpen my arguments and pro-
vided encouragement.
A few other individuals made special inspirational or practical contribu-
tions to this book. Benjamin Valentino, for example, was in many ways the
trailblazer whose work on mass killing brought the study of civilian victim-
ization into the mainstream of security studies. Ben met with me when I was
starting the project and has provided helpful comments on my work as well
as encouragement and advice along the way. I have been fortunate to have
his path to follow. Ivan Arreguín-Toft generously shared his data on bar-
barism in asymmetric confl icts and has provided constant encouragement.
[vii]
Acknowledgments
Jasen Castillo, Kelly Greenhill, and Sebestian Rosato each offered not only
extensive feedback on my ideas but also their friendship, support, and good
humor, for which I am tremendously grateful. I thank Roger Haydon at Cor-
nell University Press for his interest in and detailed comments on parts of
the manuscript.
I also thank those people who read and commented on various versions of
this project over the past several years: Laia Balcells, Barton Bernstein, Kathryn
Cochran, Michael Desch, Matthew Fehrs, Martha Finnemore, Christopher
Gelpi, Hein Goemans, Peter Gourevitch, Colin Kahl, Robert Keohane, Helen
Kinsella, Gregory Koblentz, Matthew Kocher, Eric Mvukiyehe, Richard Price,
Dan Reiter, Thomas Spragens, and Elisabeth Wood. I also thank the two anon-
ymous reviewers for Cornell University Press whose comments were espe-
cially helpful. I apologize to anyone I may have forgotten.
Several institutions provided generous fi nancial assistance that allowed
me to conduct the research and writing for this book. I spent a fruitful year
at the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University. I thank
Stephen Rosen and Monica Duffy Toft for the opportunity to participate
in Olin’s program and take advantage of Harvard’s many resources. I later
received a year of support from the Center for International Security and
Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, where I profi ted from the
guidance of Scott Sagan and Lynn Eden. Along the way I also received fi -
nancial assistance from the Eisenhower Institute in the form of a Dwight D.
Eisenhower/Clifford Roberts Graduate Fellowship, and the Harry Frank
Guggenheim Foundation, which provided a dissertation fellowship. I also
thank the Triangle Institute for Security Studies and the Arts and Sciences
Council for Faculty Research at Duke University, both of which gave funds
for research in the book’s fi nal phases.
Parts of the introduction and chapters 1 through 3 previously appeared
in my article “Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: The Causes of Civilian
Victimization in War,” I nternational Security 30, no. 4 (spring 2006): 152–95.
Parts of chapter 2 appeared as “Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and
Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars,” J ournal of Confl ict Resolution 51, no. 6
(December 2007): 872–904. Some of the material on the Second Anglo-Boer
War in chapter 5 appeared in “Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves: In-
vestigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsur-
gency Strategy,” C ivil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 420–44. I thank these
journals and their publishers for granting me permission to adapt the mate-
rial in this book.
For excellent research assistance at Duke University, I thank Soo-Jung
Choi, Max Entman, Chad Troop, but especially Katherine Jordan. Katherine
was instrumental in helping me prepare the fi nal version of the manuscript
and saved me from innumerable errors. I cannot thank her enough. I alone
am responsible for any mistakes that remain.
[viii]
Acknowledgments
On a personal note, I thank my parents, Bryan and Sheri Downes, for their
love and support through thick and thin. They have always been there to
help celebrate my successes and to help pick me up when I have stumbled.
As a teacher and mentor I only hope I can live up to my father’s example,
demonstrated by the outpouring of affection and thanks from his former
students when he retired in 2001.
Finally, I thank my wife, Tanya Schreiber, who has tirelessly endured
many a furrowed brow these last several years. Not only has Tanya served
as a sounding board and adviser for my work—I think she can explain my
arguments better than I can—but she has coaxed me through the hard times
and bad days when I thought I would never fi nish. Moreover, she has shown
me by example how to persevere; her quiet courage in the face of adversity
has inspired me more than she knows. I dedicate this book to her.
[ix]
