Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

350 Pages·2010·4.83 MB·English

by  Richards J. Heuer Jr.

More Advance Praise for Structured Analytic Techniques for
Intelligence Analysis
“Heuer and Pherson’s handbook represents an important step forward in the
evolution of the tradecraft of intelligence analysis. Although the book is
dedicated to a masterful presentation of the why, when, and how of structured
analysis, which will be invaluable to me as a mentor of analysts, it nonetheless
recognizes the continued utility of analysis by expert judgment. The future lies
in an ever-expanding role for structured analysis, and the authors wisely call for
a research center to track the situational utilities of the various structured
analytic techniques.”
—Jack Davis, Specialist in analytical tradecraft
“This is a ground-breaking book that will likely become a classic. It will be
valued by professional intelligence and other analysts because of the practical
way it carefully structures the analytical collaborative process. While based on
U.S. experience, it will also be helpful in training and standard-setting in smaller
analytical organizations.”
—Anthony Campbell, Former head of intelligence
assessment in Canada’s Privy Council Office and
Coordinator of the Community of Interest on the Practice and
Organization of Intelligence of the Global Futures Forum
“The science of reasoning has grown considerably over the past 40-odd years.
Among the many fascinating aspects of the human intellect is the ability to
amplify our own capabilities by creating analytic tools. The tools in this book are
for those whose profession often requires making judgments based on
incomplete and ambiguous information. You hold in your hands the toolkit for
systematic analytic methods and critical thinking. This is a book you can read
and then actually apply to accomplish something. Like any good toolkit, it has
some simple tools that explain themselves, some that need explanation and
guidance, and some that require considerable practice. This book helps us in our
quest to enrich our expertise and expand our reasoning skill.”
—Robert R. Hoffman, Institute for Human & Machine Cognition
“Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis is a must-read for intel
analysts and operators alike. In a field where technological solutions are often
overused, the authors remind us of the importance of sound reasoning and show
us how collaborative analysis can be done right. I know their techniques work,
for I’ve seen them in action and seen the results. Following these techniques will
bring a transparent, repeatable methodology to collaborative analysis—useful in
areas well beyond the U.S. Intelligence Community.”
—Jim Dubik, Senior Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War and
also the Institute of Land Warfare; President and CEO of Dubik Associates, LLC
“Many observers, including me, have noted that intelligence analysis as
practiced during the Cold War made little use of formal methods. Recent blue-
ribbon panels convened to study intelligence failures have called for greater
rigor, and there is no team better than the authors of this book to provide a
cookbook of techniques. Heuer all but created the subject, and Pherson is a
longtime practitioner, methodologist, and teacher. The book will be most
valuable to practitioners, for whom it should become a touchstone for any time
they need to ask themselves, ‘what if?’”
—Greg Treverton, Director of RAND’s Center for Global Risk and
Security; former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council
“Seeking to overcome the perceptual blocks and analytic pathologies identified
by Richards Heuer in his seminal work The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis,
this is the most constructive and probably the most important book on
intelligence analysis ever written. It should be compulsory reading for all
analysts in the Intelligence Community as well as all future analysts. Systematic
adoption of the structured analytic techniques identified in this volume will not
only improve the quality of analysis but also make it less likely that the United
States will be the victim of a strategic surprise. The authors have developed
techniques that, if put into practice, might take many analysts out of their
comfort zones, but will significantly enhance the value and impact of
intelligence products.”
—Phil Williams, Posvar Chair of International
Security Studies, Graduate School of
Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh
“When it comes to intelligence analysis, Randy Pherson has no equal. He kept
“When it comes to intelligence analysis, Randy Pherson has no equal. He kept
an audience of 150 of our clients spellbound for six hours.”
—Kiril Sokoloff, President, 13D Research (USVI) LLC
STRUCTURED ANALYTIC
TECHNIQUES
for
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
STRUCTURED ANALYTIC
TECHNIQUES
for
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
By
Richards J. Heuer Jr.
and
Randolph H. Pherson
CQ Press
2300 N Street, NW, Suite 800
Washington, DC 20037
Phone: [phone]; toll-free, 1-866-4CQ-PRESS (1-866-427-7737)
Web: www.cqpress.com
Copyright © 2011 by CQ Press, a division of SAGE. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional
Quarterly Inc.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval
system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Versions of twelve of the analytical techniques published in this volume (ACH, alternative futures analysis,
brainstorming, deception detection, devil’s advocacy, indicators, key assumptions check, outside-in
thinking, quadrant crunching, red cell analysis, team a/team b analysis and debate, and what if? analysis)
were published by Randolph H. Pherson in The Handbook of Analytical Techniques (2005) on behalf of the
government under contract number 2003*N(Y)481500*000. Techniques published here under those names
have been substantially refocused, refined, and improved.
Cover design: Jeffrey Everett/El Jefe Designs
Cover image: istock.com
Interior design: Judy Myers
Composition: C&M Digitals (P) Ltd.
The paper used in this publication exceeds the requirements of the American National Standard for
Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48–1992.
Printed and bound in the United States of America
14 13 12 11 10 1 2 3 4 5
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Heuer, Richards J., Jr.
Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis / by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Randolph H.
Pherson.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-1-60871-018-8 (alk. paper)
1. Intelligence service—United States. 2. Intelligence service—Methodology. I. Pherson, Randolph H. II.
Title.
JK468.I6H478 2010
327.12—dc22
2009033571
CONTENTS
Figures
Foreword by John McLaughlin
Preface
1. Introduction and Overview
1.1 Our Vision
1.2 The Value of Team Analysis
1.3 The Analyst’s Task
1.4 History of Structured Analytic Techniques
1.5 What’s in This Book?
1.6 Agenda for the Future
2. Building a Taxonomy
2.1 Four Categories of Analytic Methods
2.2 Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques
3. Criteria for Selecting Structured Techniques
3.1 Selection of Techniques for This Book
3.2 Techniques Every Analyst Should Master
3.3 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques
3.4 One Project, Multiple Techniques
3.5 Structured Technique Selection Guide
4. Decomposition and Visualization
4.1 Getting Started Checklist
4.2 Customer Checklist
4.3 Issue Redefinition
4.4 Chronologies and Timelines
4.5 Sorting
4.6 Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing
4.7 Matrices
4.8 Network Analysis
4.9 Mind Maps and Concept Maps
4.10 Process Maps and Gantt Charts
5. Idea Generation
5.1 Structured Brainstorming
5.2 Virtual Brainstorming
5.3 Nominal Group Technique
5.4 Starbursting
5.5 Cross-Impact Matrix
5.6 Morphological Analysis
5.7 Quadrant Crunching
6. Scenarios and Indicators
6.1 Scenarios Analysis
6.1.1 The Method: Simple Scenarios
6.1.2 The Method: Alternative Futures Analysis
6.1.3 The Method: Multiple Scenarios Generation
6.2 Indicators
6.3 Indicators Validator
7. Hypothesis Generation and Testing
7.1 Hypothesis Generation
7.1.1 Simple Hypotheses
7.1.2 The Method: Multiple Hypotheses Generator
7.1.3 The Method: Quadrant Hypothesis Generation
7.2 Diagnostic Reasoning
7.3 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
7.4 Argument Mapping
7.5 Deception Detection
8. Assessment of Cause and Effect
8.1 Key Assumptions Check
8.2 Structured Analogies
8.3 Role Playing
8.4 Red Hat Analysis
8.5 Outside-In Thinking
8.6 Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model
8.7 Prediction Markets
9. Challenge Analysis
9.1 Premortem Analysis
9.2 Structured Self-Critique
9.3 What If? Analysis
9.4 High Impact/Low Probability Analysis
9.5 Devil’s Advocacy
9.6 Red Team Analysis
9.7 Delphi Method
10. Conflict Management
10.1 Adversarial Collaboration
10.2 Structured Debate
11. Decision Support
11.1 Complexity Manager
11.2 Decision Matrix
11.3 Force Field Analysis