Structural Road Accident Models

373 Pages·2000·16.49 MB·English

by  M. Gaudry

structural Road Accident Models
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structural Road Accident Models
The International DRAG Family
Marc Gaudry
Universite de Montreal, Montreal, Canada
Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France
and
Sylvain Lassarre
Institut National de Recherche sur les
Transports et leur Securite, Arcueil, France
2000
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First edition 2000
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record from the Library of Congress has been applied for.
A catalogue record from the British Library has been applied for.
ISBN: 0 08 043061 9
© The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992
(Permanence of Paper).
" Of making many books there is no end;
and much study is a weariness of the flesh. "
Ecclesiasticus, 12, 12.
To : Andre Viel
John Lawson
Claude Dussault
Michel Houee
Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
willing to take research funding risks,
Frank Haight
willing to wait for a manuscript of 1984,
sine quibus non.
Contents v
Contributing authors xi
Foreword: on a manuscript of 1984 xiii
Sylvain Lassarre
Research support, and more xvii
Marc Gaudry, Sylvain Lassarre
PART I. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
1 MULTIPLE LEVELS, DAMAGES, FORMS, MOMENTS AND VARIABLES IN 1
ROAD ACCIDENT MODELS
Marc Gaudry
L L Introduction: the «Modening Quartet» in this book 1
L2. Problem Formulation 2
1.2.1. A multilevel structure; a multidamage application 2
1.2.2. Perspectives on problem structure 6
1.3. The quantification of effects 9
1.3.1. From fixed to flexible mathematical form 9
1.3.2. From monotonic to multitonic forms: the case of alcohol 14
1.4. Variables: multimoment, multivariate 19
1.4.1. The dependent variable: from observations to moments 19
1.4.2. The explanatory variables: not a triad, but a quatrain 24
1.4.3. Is pregnancy a risk factor? 27
1.5. Other modelling dimensions of interest 29
1.5.1. Multidata 29
1.5.2. Multiple documentation of reference results 30
1.6. Conclusion: matching tools to questions 31
1.7. Post Scriptum: model acronyms 31
1.8. References 32
2 THE DRAG-2 MODEL FOR QUEBEC 37
Frangois Fournier, Robert Simard
2.1. Introduction 37
2.2. The structure of the DRAG-2 model 3 8
2.2.1. A diagram of the model structure 3 8
2.2.2. Dependent variable graphs 40
2.2.3. The matrix of direct effects of independent variables over 45
dependent variables
2.3. Results on mathematical form and particular variables 49
2.3.1. Econometric results 5 0
2.3.2. Results on elasticity 51
2.3.3. Other results: forecasts for the period of 1997-2004 63
vi STRUCTURAL ROAD ACCIDENT MODELS
2.4. Other developments 66
3 THE SNUS-2.5 MODEL FOR GERMANY 67
Ulrich Blum, Marc Gaudry
3.L Context 67
3.2. Structure of model 68
3.2.1. The dependent variables 68
3.2.2. Visual analysis of the dependent variables 69
3.2.3. Matrix of direct effects 70
3.3. Results and their interpretation 73
3.3.1. Statistical results 73
3.3.2. Economic results: overall specific results 73
3.3.3. Decomposition of the impact by variable: results common to 75
other models
3.3.4. Results for other variables 79
3.4. Deriving other interesting results 82
3.4.1. The analysis of victims: direct, indirect and total elasticities 82
3.4.2. Multiple moments and their marginal rates of substitution 84
3.4.3. Marginal rates of substitution with comparable accident data 88
3.4.4. Marginal rates of substitution with disaggregated accident data 92
3.5. Policy implications 94
3.5.1. Higher prices save energy and lives 94
3.5.2. Risk substitution in terms of first moments 94
3.6. References 94
4 THE TRULS-1 MODEL FOR NORWAY 97
Lasse Fridstrom
4.1. Introduction 97
4.2. Structure of the Model TRULS-1 98
4.2.1. Dependent variables: definitions and relations 99
4.2.2. Visual analysis of dependent variables 100
4.2.3. Matrix of direct effects 107
4.2.4. The casualty subset test 108
4.3. Results on form and selected explanatory variables 111
4.4. References 126
5 THE DRAG-STOCKHOLM-2 MODEL 127
Goran Tegner, Ingvar Holmberg, Vesna Loncar-Lucassi, Christian Nilsson
5.1. Introduction 127
5.1.1. The Dennis agreement 127
5.1.2. The MAD-project 128
5.1.3. The concept of zero fatality 12 8
5.2. Structure of the DRAG model for Stockholm county
5.2.1. Introduction 128
Contents vii
5.2.2. Dependent variables: definitions and relations 129
5.2.3. Visual analysis of dependent variables 129
5.2.4. Matrix of direct effects 13 3
5.3. Model form and explanatory variables 13 4
5.3.1. Summary of econometric results 134
5.3.2. The demand for road use 134
5.3.3. Comparison between estimated and actual demand for road use 13 9
5.3.4. The contribution of road infrastructure to road traffic growth 139
5.4. The Road accident frequency and gravity models 140
5.4.1. Economic activities 141
5.4.2. Quality of vehicle fleet 141
5.4.3. Road network data 142
5.4.4. Weather data 142
5.4.5. Intervention measures 142
5.4.6. Gasoline price 142
5.5. The DRAG-Stockholm-2 model 143
5.5.1. The new model specification 143
5.5.2. Comparison of results between the "old" and "new" specification 143
5.6. Comparison of actual and estimated accident risks 146
5.7. Specific results on the DRAG-Stockholm model 148
5.8. Points of interest and conclusion 149
5.8.1. Alcohol consumption: the J-shaped relationship 150
5.8.2. Medicine consumption 151
5.8.3. Pregnancy—a new risk factor 151
5.8.4. Conclusions 154
5.9. References 154
6 THE TAG-1 MODEL FOR FRANCE 157
Laurence Jaeger, Sylvain Lassarre
6.1. Introduction 15 7
6.2. Structuring the TAG model 159
6.3. Econometric form of the TAG model 163
6.4. The estimates produced by the TAG model 167
6.4.1. Model of road transport demand 168
6.4.2. Constructing a model of average speed 170
6.4.3. Analysis of the results by risk indicator 173
6.4.4. Analysis of results by explanatory factor 175
6.5. Conclusion 181
6.6. References 182
7 THE TRACS-CA MODEL FOR CALIFORNIA 185
Patrick McCarthy
lA. Introduction 185