Table Of ContentStrategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World
and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament
NATO ASI Series
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Series 1: Disarmament Technologies- Vol. 3
Strategic Stability in the
Post-Cold War World and
the Future of Nuclear
Disarmament
edited by
Melvin L. Best, Jr.
MBEnterprises, Great Falls, VA, U.S.A.
John Hughes-Wilson
EURONET, Brussels, Belgium
and
Andrei A. Piontkowsky
World Laboratory, Strategic Studies Centre, Moscow, Russia
Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V.
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Workshop on
Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament
Washington, D.C., U.S.A.
April6-10, 1995
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-90-481-4642-0 ISBN 978-94-015-8396-1 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-8396-1
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 1995 Springer Science+ Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published byKiuwer Academic Publishers in 1995
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1995
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photo-
copying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written
permission from the copyright owner.
CONTENTS
Preface vii
List Of Participants ix
1. Consensus Report
ABOUT THE AUTHORS 31
2. Contributing Papers 37
AMBASSADOR RONALD F. LEHMAN II, Deterrence, Disarmament, And
Post-Cold War Stability: Enhancing Security For Both "Haves"
And "Have Nots" 38
2.1 QUALITATIVE - GLOBAL 51
DR. ROBERT W. CHANDLER, On Deterrence, Balance Of Power, And
Geopolitics 53
DR. FRITZ W. ERMARTH, Proliferation Stability And Instability:
Conditioning Factors 69
COLONEL(ret) ROY GILES, Verifying The Future: Towards An International
Conventional Arms Control And Conversion Regime For The 21st Century 77
MAJOR GENERAL ROBERT E. LINHARD, Crisis Stability In A Multi-polar
World 85
2.2 QUALITATIVE- EUROPEAN 95
SIR RODRIC BRAITHWAITE, Russia And The West: A Partnership? 97
DR. DMITRY S. CHERESHKIN, Possibilities For Coope~ation Of Russia
And The USA In Designing, Correction And Realization Of National Security
Doctrines 107
DR VASILIY I. KRIVOKHIZHA, Deterrence And Stability 115
2.3 QUALITATIVE - ASIAN 131
GENERAL(ret) SIR ANTHONY FARRAR- HOCKLEY, Geo-Political
Stability And The Balance Of Power In East Asia 133
vi
GENERAL(ret) KRISHNASWAMI SUNDARJI, Strategic Stability In The
Early 2000s: An Indian View Of A South Asian Model 141
LIEU1ENANT COLONEL XIA LIPING, Non-Nuclear Proliferation And
Strategic Stability In The Asia-Pacific Region 169
2.4 QUANTITATIVE: GEOPOLITICAL STABILITY & BALANCE OF
POWER 177
DR. EMERSON M.S. NIOU and PE1ER C. ORDESHOOK, Balance Of
Power Verses Collective Security: A Game-Theoretic Analysis 179
DR ANDREI PIONTKOWSKY & DR. ARKADY SKOROKHODOV,
Russia's Nuclear Strategy: 90's And After 191
2.5 QUANTITATIVE: DE1ERRENCE, CRISIS STABILITY & FIRST
STRIKE STABILITY 201
DR JEROME BRACKEN, Multipolar Nuclear Stability: Incentives To Strike
And Incentives To Preempt 203
LIEU1ENANT GENERAL GLENN A. KENT (ret), Controlling Instabilities
Caused By Rogue Governments 221
DR MICHEL RUDNIANSKI and ALETH D' ASSIGNIES,
From MAD To MAD 229
DR. ANDREI PIONTKOWSKY & DR. ARKADY SKOROKHODOV,
FSSI As A Universal Measure Of Stability: From MAD-Stability
Toward MAP-Stability 259
2.6 QUANTA TITIVE: ARMS RACE 269
MR. FREDERIC S. NYLAND, Analyzing Three-Way Arms Races 271
DR. CHRISTIAN SCHMIDT, New Patterns In The Arms Race:
Some Guidelines 297
DR. ANTON V. SURIKOV, Approaches To Mathematical Modeling Of The
Process Of World-Wide Strategic Nuclear Conflict Used In
The Former USSR 307
2.7 QUANTITATIVE: PROLIFERATION 315
DR. ILAN AMIT, Stability, Reassurance And Non-Proliferation 317
Preface
This Report contains a Consensus Report and the papers submitted to the April 6 - 10,
1995 NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Strategic Stability In The Post-Cold War World
And The Future OfN uclear Disarmament, held in Washington D.C., United States Of America
at The Airlie Conference Center. The workshop was sponsored by the NATO Division of
Scientific and Environmental Affairs as part of its ongoing outreach programme to widen and
deepen scientific contacts between NATO member countries and the Cooperation Partner
countries of the former Warsaw Treaty Organization.
The participants recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a
conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components
of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out,
the emergence of the new world order will have answered three fundamental questions:" What
are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are
the goals on behalf of which they interact? "
The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international
system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a test of strength. The concept
of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now
be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of this NATO-sponsored Advanced
Research Workshop.
OBJECTIVES OF THE ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP ( ARW) :
The objective of this workshop is to reach a consensus on defining a model (calculus) for
Strategic Stability in a changing multipolar world in the presence of weapons of mass destruction
-- the model (calculus) being the core of a conscious design to shape or govern the interactions
of nation-states in a new world order.
The basis for constructing this model will be regional models that reflect the role
weapons of mass destruction play in each nation's early twenty-first century security strategy.
These models, among other things, will address the effect that future modernization, reductions
in weapons (to levels below START II), and proliferation will have on the many dimensions of
Strategic Stability.
The participants have begun to rigorously document this multipolar model, develop each
dimension of Strategic Stability, and identify issues for further investigation.
FRAMEWORKFORTHEARW:
A fully described model is a necessary condition for a conscious design to shape actions
toward Strategic Stability. The following taxonomy of the dimensions of Strategic Stability was
accepted by the participants as the first step toward such a model.
Stability in Geo-politics and Balance Of Power
• Arms Race Stability
Deterrence Stability; Crisis Stability; First Strike Stability
Stability in the presence of clandestine Proliferation
The focus of their investigations are to extend each dimension of stability into a dynamic
vii
viii
multipolar world. These investigations will focus on the role and effect of proliferation of nuclear
weapons. Regional models reflecting each nation's security strategy will be developed and will
form the basis for constructing a global model. Rigorous operational definitions and metrics will
be necessary to complete the fully described model.
This unprecedentedg athering of top academic, scientific and military experts from the USA,
Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, and Israel would noth ave been possible were it
not for the tireless and selfless devotion of the participants and the sponsorship of the NATO
Scientific Affairs Division. As in any gathering of bright and outspoken individuals it is not
possible to reach consensus on all points by all participants. However, after four grueling days
the participants reached general agreement that is captured in the "Consensus Report". Then each
participant made a individual contribution that further fleshes out the dimensions of Strategic
Stability.
This amazing gathering is now the foundational work that can provide joint concepts for all
leaders of the nuclear powers to shape their decisions for the next decades. And for the first time
they can base their decisions on agreed scientific facts, not just political judgements. The
turbulence of the emerging new world will no doubt bring unprecedented challenges and I am
sure that the delegates are unanimous in their view that new solutions to tomorrow's problems
can only be achieved through unprecedented cooperation and dialogue.
Mel Best
Workshop Director
List of Participants
NATO-ARW
"Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and
the Future of Nuclear Disarmament"
• DIRECTOR - Melvin Best-- MBEnterprises -- USA
• Co-Director- Col.(ret)John Hughes-Wilson - EURONET -- UK
• Co-Director-- Dr. Andrei Piontkowsky --World Laboratory, Moscow-- Russia
NATO Participants
USA
• Maj. Gen. Robert Linhard- US Air Force
• Dr. Ronald Lehman -- Lawerence Livermore National Laboratories
• Dr. Fritz Ermarth --Former Chairman National Intelligence Council
• Lt. Gen. Glenn Kent (ret) - RAND Corporation
• Dr. Robert Chandler-- Strategic Planning International
• Dr. Emerson Niou -- Duke University- Political Science Department
• Dr. Jerry Bracken-- Yale (Adjunct Professor)
• Dr. Fred Nyland-- Nyland Enterprises
United Kingdom
• Col.(ret) Roy Giles -- Defence Research Agency
• Sir Rodric Braithwaite -- Morgan Grenfell & Company
• Gen.(ret) Sir Anthony Farrar-Hockley --National Westminster Bank
France
• Dr. Michel Rudnianski --University ofReims, and Paris V
• Dr. Christian Schmidt --University of Paris
NON-NATO Participants
Israel
• Dr. //an Amit -- Former Director Center for Military Analysis
India
• Gen.(ret) Krishnaswami Sundarji --Former Army Chief Of Staff
China
• Professor Zhongyue Song -- Society for Strategy and Management Research
• Lt. Col. Liping Xia --National Defense University, PLA
Russia
• Academician Eugene Ve/ikhov -- Vice President,Russian Academy of Sciences
• Dr. Dmitry Chereshkin -- VP-Russian Academy of Natural Sciences
• Dr. Vasiliy Krivokhizha -- Dep Dir-Russia's Institute Strategic Studies
• Dr. Arkady Skorokhodov -- Institute for Systems Analysis
• Dr. Anton Surikov -- Institute of USA and Canada Studies Studies
ix
THE CONSENSUS REPORT
THE PARTICIPANTS OF THE NATO ARW
"Strategic Stability In The Post Cold War World
And The Future Of Nuclear Disarmament"
Airlie Conference Center: Apri/6-10, 1995
Airlie, Virginia
1. PART 1: Overview & Executive Summary
1.1 BACKGROUND
NATO's Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) on "Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and
Future of Nuclear Disarmament" assembled at a critical moment for the international system. It is
increasingly clear that the end of the Cold War and dismantling of the bi-polar model of the world
necessitates a fundamental re-examination of the traditional concepts of stability. Attempts to deal
with new problems of the multi-polar world on the basis of the traditional concepts has proven to be
inadequate, counter-productive and sometimes regionally disastrous.
1.2 EMERGING AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT
• A comparatively new phenomenon in recent months is a growing divergence between Western and
Russian perceptions of World development. During frank and substantive discussions the ARW
discovered that this discrepancy has a theoretical nature too.
• The apparent points of disagreement (former Yugoslavia, NATO enlargement, some aspects of
Middle East policies, etc) are not reasons for, but a manifestation of growing mistrust, threatening
a potential "Cold Peace" period. This mistrust is exacerbated by a conceptual gap between NATO
and Russian perceptions of the world.
• After the end of the Cold War a considerable part of Russian public opinion, oriented on Russian
reintegration into Europe, was looking for a fundamental change in the old stability and security
paradigms. In the nuclear field that means a transition from the MAD concept of stability, codifying
hostilities in relations, toward more sophisticated ways of ensuring nuclear stability, based more on
such tools as protection and counter-proliferation.
• On the European scene that could mean a transition from traditional bloc confrontation models to
new mechanisms of European stability with the eventual merging of NATO and Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) mechanisms.
• The perception that corresponding Russian political initiatives were received rather coolly, created
a feeling in Russia that many in the West are not interested in a change in the stability paradigms, but
in preserving an old one; one that in their perception was useful because it brought a victory in the
Cold War and therefore will be equally useful in the future.
I
M. L. Best, Jr. et al. (eds.), Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future ofN uclear Disarmament, 1-30.
© 1995 Kluwer Academic Publishers.
