Table Of ContentSTRATEGIC RETHINK
STRATEGIC
CHOICES
FOR A TURBULENT
WORLD
In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
Andrew R. Hoehn | Richard H. Solomon | Sonni Efron
Frank Camm | Anita Chandra | Debra Knopman | Burgess Laird
Robert J. Lempert | Howard J. Shatz | Casimir Yost
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Preface
This is the sixth and final volume in the RAND Strategic Rethink
project. This series has developed conceptual perspectives on how U.S.
thinking, institutions, and policies must adapt to the many changes in
the international environment. Together, these studies help clarify the
strategic choices facing the country in 2017 and beyond.
The first volume, anchored by Ambassador James Dobbins, out-
lines the foreign policy choices that U.S. policymakers now face in three
critical regions—the Middle East, Europe, and Asia—as well as on
such problems as counterterrorism, climate change, and cybersecurity.
The second study, on national defense, by David Ochmanek and
Andrew Hoehn, demonstrates that the United States suffers a “security
deficit” between its stated military strategy and the resources allocated
to its defense posture. It outlines what Americans can expect for their
defense dollars at four different levels of spending, all of them lower
than historic norms. And it argues that the United States must either
spend more on its defenses or reduce its global security ambitions.
The third volume, by Hans Binnendijk, assesses the state of
U.S. alliances and partnerships, exploring three alternative strategies
for managing potential adversaries. It concludes that collaborative
engagement, though not without constraints, is the most feasible for
the United States. It also recommends a trilateral defense strategy that
would feature closer ties among the United States, Europe, and Asia.
The fourth, a Perspective by Ambassador Charles P. Ries, probes
the deficiencies in the U.S. national security policymaking and policy
implementation systems, offering eight recommendations for reorga-
iii
iv Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
nizing and improving decisionmaking in an era of rising challenges
and shrinking policymaker bandwidth.
The fifth, an assessment of the international economy by Howard
J. Shatz, concludes that the United States is likely to maintain the
world’s largest economy for many years, and that it will benefit from
continuing its leadership role in the international institutions it helped
to build over the past seven decades. The report argues that the United
States should improve these global structures and integrate rising
powers, demonstrating to other countries that a U.S.-led economic
system remains desirable.
We draw on the research and insights of these five associated
studies in this concluding volume, as well as contributions from other
RAND colleagues across a range of disciplines.
This study should be of interest to U.S. policymakers and law-
makers, analysts, the media, nongovernmental organizations, and
others concerned with the role of the United States and other nations
in advancing global security and economic growth.
This project results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment
in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in
part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on
client-funded research.
Special appreciation is due to the Hauser Foundation for its gen-
erous gifts in support of the project, and to Rita Hauser for her encour-
agement and support of the effort.
Preface v
The RAND Strategic Rethink Series
Available at www.rand.org/research/projects/strategic-rethink
Choices for America in a Turbulent World
James Dobbins, Richard H. Solomon, Michael S. Chase,
Ryan Henry, F. Stephen Larrabee, Robert J. Lempert,
Andrew Liepman, Jeffrey Martini, David Ochmanek, and
Howard J. Shatz
RR-1114-RC, 2015
America’s Security Deficit: Addressing the Imbalance
Between Strategy and Resources in a Turbulent World
David Ochmanek, Andrew R. Hoehn, James T. Quinlivan,
Seth G. Jones, and Edward L. Warner
RR-1223-RC, 2015
Friends, Foes, and Future Directions: U.S. Partnerships
in a Turbulent World
Hans Binnendijk
RR-1210-RC, 2016
Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World
Charles P. Ries
PE-192-RC, 2016
U.S. International Economic Strategy in a Turbulent
World
Howard J. Shatz
RR-1521-RC, 2016
Foreword
This is the sixth and final volume of the Strategic Rethink series, during
which RAND has pulled together some of its best minds to take a fresh
look at America’s role in the world—its interests, ambitions, obstacles,
and options for a turbulent new era.
The project was born several years ago, at a moment when both
the international security situation and the U.S. domestic political
mood seemed to be deteriorating sharply. We had war fatigue at home,
tumult in the Middle East, increasing tensions with Russia and China,
a Salafi-jihadist movement taking root in new lands, and a rising tide
of partisanship threatening to paralyze the U.S. ability to conduct a
sustained, coherent foreign policy. I asked Ambassadors Richard Solo-
mon and James Dobbins to lead a wide-ranging effort to reexamine
America’s challenges and its capabilities. What level of international
engagement is the American public willing to support, and to what
end? How much does America want or need to lead a world where
many problems seem to be beyond its ability to control? Is there a
“grand strategy” for diplomacy and defense that would match U.S.
interests with the resources required to succeed at that strategy? And
if not a “grand” strategy, are there other strategic concepts that could
align and orient U.S. foreign and domestic policy and generate support
from the American public?
The five previous volumes in this series explored key issues that
will face the next president in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia;
national defense; alliances and partnerships; national security deci-
sionmaking; and international economic policy. This final overview
vii
viii Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
report analyzes how the United States moved from the triumph at the
end of the Cold War to the stalemate of today and suggests a range of
changes the United States can make to better adapt to this new era of
turbulence and uncertainty. The report offers three plausible strategic
concepts that the United States might pursue, and evaluates the under-
lying assumptions, costs, risks, and constraints. It also offers thoughts
on how to choose among alternatives.
We do not advocate any one of these strategic concepts. In fact,
we assume that policymakers will mix and match as they strive to cope
with fast-evolving circumstances and advance changing U.S. inter-
ests. As this report points out, changes in course even during a single
administration tend to be the rule rather than the exception.
I would offer five considerations for readers as they use this volume
to explore, challenge, and develop their own views of America’s role in
the world.
First, I am deeply concerned that the United States has contracted
a disease we might call “truth decay.” In politics and beyond, we see the
danger that Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan once warned of, that people
feel entitled not only to their opinions, but to their own set of facts to
support those opinions. One goal of the Strategic Rethink series has
been to present a rigorous body of facts and analysis on which to have
a productive discussion about strategic choices for America.
Second, American voters don’t always get what we pay for, but we
almost never get what we don’t pay for. Each strategic concept in this
report comes with an approximate price tag for defense and security
spending. Failure to allocate proper resources to a chosen course of
action is a recipe for disappointment, debt, or disaster.
Third, much has been written about the limitations on U.S.
power, but the authors caution that inaction on the global stage can
sometimes be just as costly as action. A careful calibration of ends and
means is always a necessity.
Fourth, the analysis highlights the many strengths the United
States brings to bear on the global stage, more than any other nation,
and none more important than its many friends and allies. No other
competitor has the advantage of such a global network of friends and
Foreword ix
allies; to surrender or squander this advantage would be a catastrophic
strategic failure.
Finally, this report analyzes many external threats to the
United States. Yet the authors conclude that an internal problem—
domestic political dysfunction—is the greatest threat of all. No effec-
tive response to any major problem, whether an international trade
deal, a major infrastructure project, a new weapon system, or a tax or
entitlement reform program, can succeed in the span of a two-year
Congress or a four-year presidential administration. Therefore, bipar-
tisan agreements must not only be forged, they must be sustained in
order to achieve meaningful, lasting results.
I hope this report will stimulate the long-range thinking and
bipartisan policy planning that will be needed to secure and sustain
America’s place in a turbulent world.
Michael D. Rich
President and Chief Executive Officer,
RAND Corporation
