Table Of ContentSTRATEGIC CHALLENGES
in the BALTIC SEA REGION
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STRATEGIC CHALLENGES
in the BALTIC SEA REGION
RUSSIA, DETERRENCE,
and REASSURANCE
ANN-SOFIE DAHL, Editor
Foreword by ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN
Georgetown University Press
Washington, DC
© 2018 Georgetown University Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be
reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including
photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without
permission in writing from the publisher.
Th e publisher is not responsible for third-party websites or their content. URL links were
active at time of publication.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Dahl, Ann-Sofi e, editor.
Title: Strategic challenges in the Baltic Sea region : Russia, deterrence,
and reassurance / Ann-Sofi e Dahl, editor.
Description: Washington, D.C. : Georgetown University Press, 2018.
Identifi ers: LCCN 2017036327| ISBN 9781626165700 (hardcover : alk. paper) |
ISBN 9781626165717 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781626165724 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Baltic Sea Region—Strategic aspects. | North Atlantic Treaty
Organization—Baltic States. | Scandinavia—Strategic aspects. | North
Atlantic Treaty Organization—Scandinavia. | Europe, Northern—Strategic
aspects. | Russia (Federation)—Relations—Baltic Sea Region. | Baltic Sea
Region—Relations—Russia (Federation) | North Atlantic Treaty
Organization—United States.
Classifi cation: LCC UA646.53 .S77 2018 | DDC 355/.0330485—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017036327
Th is book is printed on acid-free paper meeting the requirements of the American
National Standard for Permanence in Paper for Printed Library Materials.
19 18 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 First printing
Printed in the United States of America
Cover design by Jeremy John Parker.
CONTENTS
Foreword by Anders Fogh Rasmussen vii
Introduction 1
Ann-Sofi e Dahl
Part I. Th e West, Russia, and Baltic Sea Security
1 Still the Indispensable Power: Th e United States and
Baltic Sea Security 9
Robert J. Lieber
2 Russia and Baltic Sea Security: A Background 17
Gudrun Persson
3 NATO’s Role in Baltic Sea Security: Reestablishing Deterrence,
Projecting Stability 33
Jamie Shea
4 Th e West and Russia: Another Front in the New Cold War? 49
Christopher Coker
Part II. NATO Allies and Baltic Sea Security
5 Are the Baltic States Next? Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania 61
Andres Kasekamp
6 Deterring Russia: An A2/AD Strategy in the Baltic Sea 73
Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen
7 Russia as a Challenge in the Baltic Sea Region:
A View from Warsaw 85
Justyna Gotkowska
v
vi Contents
8 Germany: Th e Silent Baltic State 93
Claudia Major and Alicia von Voss
9 Norwegian Perspectives on Baltic Sea Security 101
Håkon Lunde Saxi
Part III. NATO’s Nordic Partners
10 Th e Strategic Role of Gotland 117
Johan Raeder
11 Sweden and Finland: Partnership in Lieu of NATO Membership 129
Ann-Sofi e Dahl
12 Finland and NATO’s Renewed Focus on Collective Defense 141
Karoliina Honkanen
Conclusion 153
Ann-Sofi e Dahl
List of Contributors 159
Index 163
FOREWORD
Th e security of the Baltic Sea region is a topic more pertinent now than ever before
in our post–Cold War history. At the same time, it has been rather understudied.
A comprehensive compilation of state-of-the-art analyses on various topics about
the region by some of the top experts in the fi eld, this book is a welcome contribu-
tion to public debate.
Ultimately, the Baltic Sea region is becoming a theater of increased geopolitical
tensions. What is becoming ever more evident is that it has become a new front line
in tensions with Russia. As a result, to calm tensions along this fragile border, the
West must display more resolve and unity.
Russia seeks to play a role in the Baltic region, and that should be respected as
long as the interests are exercised in accordance with international law and princi-
ples. Th e region constitutes the most densely populated area in Russia and is a main
choke point for Russian exports of goods and oil. Russian ports on the Baltic Sea
handle 53 percent of Russia’s total container throughput—twice as much as the
second-largest area, the Far East. With Nord Stream 1 and the planned Nord
Stream 2 gas pipeline projects, the region has become a vital part of Russia’s energy
policy.
Nonetheless, Russia should play the role of a constructive partner in the region
rather than seeking to escalate tensions to divert attention away from its deteriorat-
ing domestic situation and economy. Unfortunately, we are now experiencing quite
the opposite. We have seen a rapid worsening of the relationship between the West
and Russia in recent years. Russia has illegally occupied parts of Ukraine, Russian
fi ghter jets and submarines are displaying aggressive behavior in the Baltic Sea, and
Russia has been increasing its military presence on shared borders. Despite previ-
ous assurances of the opposite, Russia has deployed Iskander-M short-range ballis-
tic missiles to Kaliningrad, eff ectively exposing the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization’s most critical areas of the Baltic Sea. Th e Kremlin’s decision to
deploy the missiles has altered the strategic landscape and rightly so set warning
bells ringing in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
vii
viii Anders Fogh Rasmussen
Our end-goal should be normalization with Russia. But we will not get there by
division and weakness. Th e West has been slow off the mark. We failed to respond
with unity and resolve when Russia seized gas supplies to Ukraine in 2006 and
2009 and when it invaded Georgia in 2008.
Th e 2014 invasion of Ukraine was an eye-opener for the Western community
and helped to pave the way for the decision made at the 2014 NATO summit in
Wales in which NATO member states decided to create a spearhead force of fi ve
thousand troops, maintained on high alert. Two years later at the 2016 summit in
Warsaw, NATO additionally decided to deploy four multinational battle groups
totaling fi ve thousand troops to Poland and the Baltic countries, as well as to tailor
a forward presence in Southeastern Europe as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward
Presence. Th e recent reinforcements are the largest of their kind since the end of
the Cold War and should be perceived as a clear signal to President Vladimir
Putin that a Russian military invasion of any NATO Ally would trigger a response
from the Alliance.
NATO’s deterrence on land has improved in recent years but is far from perfect,
and there are still signifi cant gaps in its overall deterrence posture. NATO’s naval
presence in the Baltic Sea is inadequate. In the case of a military confrontation,
Russia’s Baltic fl eet currently has the upper hand. If we are to deter further Russian
aggression, we must be able to control the Danish Straits and step up our maritime
antiaccess and area-denial capabilities. At the Warsaw Summit, NATO recognized
cyber as a domain along with air, sea, and land. Acknowledging the threat image
was important, but NATO is still not fully prepared to respond to cyberattacks,
“little green men” (the masked soldiers in green uniforms who appeared with Rus-
sian arms on Ukrainian territory), and Russian disinformation. Th e Kremlin
should be allowed no wiggle room to deploy these alternative weapons.
Th e emerging threats are not simply a matter of capabilities, however. Respond-
ing to a resurgent Russia requires bold leadership. For the United States, this means
reaffi rming America’s unequivocal commitment to NATO’s Article 5. On the
European side, it means shouldering more of the responsibility and spending more
on defense. Both need to do their part. Th e US must express explicit support for
Article 5, and Europe should assume more responsibility for its own security.
Th us far the tensions in the Baltic Sea region have not escalated to the level of
military confrontation, but the situation could easily spiral out of control if the
Western world fails to demonstrate and communicate its unity and resolve. I hope
this book will animate discussion on the topic and breathe new life into the debate
about the security of the region.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen
Prime Minister of Denmark, 2001–9
Secretary-General of NATO, 2009–14
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