Stock Trader's Almanac 2013

294 Pages·2012·24.55 MB·English

by  Jeffrey A. Hirsch

Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
INTRODUCTION TO THE FORTY-SIXTH EDITION
NOTABLE EVENTS
2013 OUTLOOK
2013 STRATEGY CALENDAR
JANUARY ALMANAC
January Vital Statistics
DECEMBER 2012/JANUARY 2013
JANUARY’S FIRST FIVE DAYS: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
THE FIRST-FIVE-DAYS-IN-JANUARY INDICATOR
JANUARY
THE INCREDIBLE JANUARY BAROMETER (DEVISED 1972):
ONLY Seven SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN 62 YEARS
AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR
JANUARY
JANUARY BAROMETER IN GRAPHIC FORM SINCE 1950
JANUARY
FEBRUARY ALMANAC
February Vital Statistics
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
HOT JANUARY INDUSTRIES BEAT S&P NEXT 11 MONTHS
AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR FOR TOP-
PERFORMING INDUSTRIES
FEBRUARY
MARKET BEHAVIOR AFTER SITTING PRESIDENT WINS AND
LOSSES
POST-ELECTION MARKETS WHEN SITTING PRESIDENT WINS
REELECTION
FEBRUARY
THE THIRD YEAR OF DECADES
FEBRUARY
MARCH ALMANAC
March Vital Statistics
FEBRUARY/MARCH
MARKET CHARTS OF POST-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEARS
MARCH
POST-ELECTION YEAR PERFORMANCE BY PARTY
MARKET ACTION UNDER REPUBLICANS & DEMOCRATS SINCE
1953
MARCH
POST-ELECTION YEARS: PAYING THE PIPER
THE RECORD SINCE 1913
MARCH
HOW TO TRADE BEST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGIES
TRADABLE BEST AND WORST MONTHS SWITCHING
STRATEGY FUNDS
Become an Almanac Investor
MARCH
APRIL ALMANAC
April Vital Statistics
APRIL
THE DECEMBER LOW INDICATOR: A USEFUL
PROGNOSTICATING TOOL
YEARS DOW FELL BELOW DECEMBER LOW IN FIRST
QUARTER
APRIL
DOWN JANUARYS: A REMARKABLE RECORD
FROM DOWN JANUARY S&P CLOSES TO LOW NEXT 11
MONTHS
APRIL
TOP PERFORMING MONTHS PAST 62 YEARS: STANDARD &
POOR’S 500 AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
MONTHLY % CHANGES (JANUARY 1950 TO APRIL 2012)
APRIL
MAY ALMANAC
May Vital Statistics
APRIL/MAY
“BEST SIX MONTHS”: STILL AN EYE-POPPING STRATEGY
SIX-MONTH SWITCHING STRATEGY
MAY
MACD-TIMING TRIPLES “BEST SIX MONTHS” RESULTS
SIX-MONTH SWITCHING STRATEGY+TIMING
MAY
MARKET FARES BETTER UNDER DEMOCRATS DOLLAR HOLDS
UP UNDER REPUBLICANS
THE STOCK MARKET UNDER REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS
DECLINE OF THE DOLLAR UNDER REPUBLICANS AND
DEMOCRATS
MAY
JUNE ALMANAC
June Vital Statistics
MAY/JUNE
TOP PERFORMING NASDAQ MONTHS PAST 41 YEARS
MONTHLY % CHANGES (JANUARY 1971 TO APRIL 2011)
JUNE
GET MORE OUT OF NASDAQ’S “BEST EIGHT MONTHS” WITH
MACD TIMING
BEST EIGHT MONTHS STRATEGY + TIMING
JUNE
TRIPLE RETURNS, FEWER TRADES: BEST 6 + 4-YEAR CYCLE
FOUR TRADES EVERY FOUR YEARS
BEST SIX MONTHS+TIMING+4-YEAR CYCLE STRATEGY
JUNE
FIRST MONTH OF QUARTERS IS THE MOST BULLISH
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS, S&P 500, AND NASDAQ AVERAGE
MONTHLY % CHANGES BY QUARTER
JUNE
JULY ALMANAC
July Vital Statistics
JULY
2011 DAILY DOW POINT CHANGES (DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
AVERAGE)
JULY
DON’T SELL STOCKS ON Monday or FRIDAY
ANNUAL DOW POINT CHANGES FOR DAYS OF THE WEEK
SINCE 1953
JULY
A RALLY FOR ALL SEASONS
SEASONAL GAINS IN DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
JULY
AUGUST ALMANAC
August Vital Statistics
JULY/AUGUST
REPUBLICAN CONGRESS & DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT BEST
FOR THE MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE
SINCE 1949–2011
AUGUST
AURA OF THE TRIPLE WITCH—4th QUARTER most BULLISH:
DOWN WEEKS TRIGGER MORE WEAKNESS WEEK AFTER
TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK AND WEEK AFTER DOW POINT
CHANGES
AUGUST
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DOWN FRIDAY/ DOWN MONDAY
WARNING
DOWN FRIDAY/DOWN MONDAYS
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (NOVEMBER 2010–MAY 18, 2012)
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER ALMANAC
September Vital Statistics
AUGUST/SEPTEMBER
A CORRECTION FOR ALL SEASONS
SEASONAL CORRECTIONS IN DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
SEPTEMBER
FIRST-TRADING-DAY-OF-THE-MONTH PHENOMENON: DOW
GAINS MORE ONE DAY THAN ALL OTHER DAYS
DOW POINTS GAINED FIRST DAY OF MONTH SEPTEMBER 1997
TO MAY 18, 2012
SUMMARY FIRST DAYS VS. OTHER DAYS OF MONTH
SEPTEMBER
MARKET BEHAVIOR THREE DAYS BEFORE AND THREE DAYS
AFTER HOLIDAYS
HOLIDAYS: 3 DAYS BEFORE, 3 DAYS AFTER (Average % change
1980 to April 2012)
SEPTEMBER
MARKET GAINS MORE ON SUPER-8 DAYS each MONTH THAN
ON ALL 13 REMAINING DAYS COMBINED
SUPER-8 DAYS* DOW % CHANGES VS. REST OF MONTH
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER ALMANAC
October Vital Statistics
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
SECTOR SEASONALITY: SELECTED PERCENTAGE PLAYS
SECTOR INDEX SEASONALITY TABLE
OCTOBER
Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar*
OCTOBER
Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar*
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER ALMANAC
November Vital Statistics
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER
FOURTH QUARTER MARKET MAGIC
QUARTERLY % CHANGES
NOVEMBER
TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BEFORE AND AFTER
THANKSGIVING
NOVEMBER
MOST OF THE SO-CALLED “JANUARY EFFECT” TAKES PLACE
IN THE LAST HALF OF DECEMBER
25-YEAR AVERAGE RATES OF RETURN (DEC 1987 TO FEB 2012)
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER ALMANAC
December Vital Statistics
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER
JANUARY EFFECT NOW STARTS IN MID-DECEMBER
RUSSELL 2000/RUSSELL 1000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
RUSSELL 2000/RUSSELL 1000 (1979 to April 2012)
DECEMBER
WALL STREET’S ONLY “FREE LUNCH” SERVED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS
BARGAIN STOCKS VS. THE MARKET*
DECEMBER
IF SANTA CLAUS SHOULD FAIL TO CALL, BEARS MAY COME
TO BROAD AND WALL
DAILY % CHANGE IN S&P 500 AT YEAR END
DECEMBER
BEST INVESTMENT BOOK OF THE YEAR: What’s Behind the
Numbers
YEAR’S TOP INVESTMENT BOOKS
DECEMBER
YEAR’S TOP INVESTMENT BOOKS
DECEMBER/JANUARY 2014
2014 STRATEGY CALENDAR
2014 STRATEGY CALENDAR
DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND
DATABANK
CONTENTS
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR
2013
RECENT DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY
CALENDAR 2013
S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
RECENT S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
RECENT NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY
CALENDAR 2013
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON
THE 10-YEAR STOCK MARKET CYCLE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 179-
YEAR SAGA CONTINUES
STOCK MARKET ACTION SINCE 1833
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE
1900
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE
1900
STANDARD & POOR’S 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929
NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971
STANDARD & POOR’S 500 BULL AND BEAR MARKETS
NASDAQ COMPOSITE BULL AND BEAR MARKETS
JANUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
FEBRUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
MARCH DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
APRIL DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
MAY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
JUNE DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
JULY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
AUGUST DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
SEPTEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
OCTOBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
NOVEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
DECEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET
MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH HALF-HOUR OF THE DAY
(January 1987 to April 27, 2012)
MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH HOUR OF THE DAY
(November 1963 to June 1985)
THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS
TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK
MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (June
1952 to December 1989)
MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (January
1990 to May 4, 2012)
NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK
NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (1971 to
1989)
NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (1990 to
May 4, 2012)
S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952
PERCENTAGE OF TIMES MARKET CLOSED HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS DAY
NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971
PERCENTAGE OF TIMES NASDAQ CLOSED HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS DAY
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS
MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH
(January 1953 to December 1981)
MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH
(January 1982 to December 2011)
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS
NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January
1971 to December 1981)
NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January
1982 to December 2011)
NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR’S BEST
THREE-MONTH SPAN
S&P 500 MONTHLY % PERFORMANCE January 1950 to April 2012
NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ’S EIGHT-MONTH RUN
NASDAQ MONTHLY PERFORMANCE January 1971 to April 2012
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES
SINCE 1901
S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930
NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971
RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGE
SINCE 1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE
1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE
1950
STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
SINCE 1950
STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE
1950
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE
1971
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE
1979
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979