stock assessment and fishery evaluation report

310 Pages·2008·5.55 MB·English

STOCK ASSESSMENT AND FISHERY EVALUATION REPORT
FOR THE GROUNDFISH FISHERIES OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BERING
SEA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AREA:

ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE GROUNDFISH FISHERIES OFF ALASKA, 2007

by

Terry Hiatt, Ron Felthoven, Michael Dalton, Brian Garber-Yonts, Alan Haynie, Dan Lew,
Jennifer Sepez, Chang Seung and the staff of Northern Economics, Inc.

Economic and Social Sciences Research Program
Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
National Marine Fisheries Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
7600 Sand Point Way N.E.
Seattle, Washington 98115-6349

November 5, 2008
This report will be available at:

http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/refm/docs/2008/economic.pdf

For additional information concerning this report contact:

Terry Hiatt
Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
7600 Sand Point Way N.E.
Seattle, Washington 98115-6349
[phone]
[email protected]

ii
ABSTRACT

The domestic groundfish fishery off Alaska is the largest fishery by volume in the U.S. This
report contains detailed information about economic aspects of the fishery, including figures and
tables, market analyses for the most commercially valuable species (to be published in the final
version of this report), a summary of the relevant research being undertaken by the Economic
and Social Sciences Research Program (ESSRP) at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC)
and a list of their recent publications.

More specifically, the figures and tables in the report provide estimates of total groundfish catch,
groundfish discards and discard rates, prohibited species bycatch and bycatch rates, the ex-vessel
value of the groundfish catch, the ex-vessel value of the catch in other Alaska fisheries, the gross
product value (F.O.B. Alaska) of the resulting groundfish seafood products, the number and sizes
of vessels that participated in the Alaska groundfish fisheries, vessel activity, and employment
on at-sea processors. Generally, the data presented in this report cover the years 2003 through
2007 but limited catch and ex-vessel value data are reported for earlier years in order to illustrate
the rapid development of the domestic groundfish fishery in the 1980s and to provide a more
complete historical perspective on catch1.

In addition, this report contains data on some of the external factors which, in part, determine the
economic status of the fisheries. Such factors include foreign exchange rates, the prices and
price indexes of products that compete with products from these fisheries, domestic per capita
consumption of seafood products, and fishery imports.

This report also updates the set of market analyses for pollock, Pacific cod, sablefish, and flatfish
first published here in last year’s report. These analyses discuss the current state of the markets
for these species in terms of pricing, volume, supply, and demand. We discuss trade patterns,
market share, and provide forecasts of future prices.

We also provide project descriptions and updates for ongoing research activities of the ESSRP at
the AFSC. Contact information is included for each of the ongoing projects so that readers may
contact us for more detail or an update on the project status. Finally, we have also included a list
of publications that have arisen out of our work since 2002.

1 Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) is not included in data for the groundfish fishery in this report because for
management purposes halibut is not part of the groundfish complex.

iii
CONTENTS

Page

Abstract ........................................................................................................................................iii

List of Figures...............................................................................................................................vii

List of Tables............................................................................................................................... vii

Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

Overview of Federally Managed Fisheries off Alaska, 2007......................................................... 3

Citations........................................................................................................................................ 12

Annual Fishery Statistics:

Figures........................................................................................................................................... 13

Tables............................................................................................................................................ 19

Market Analyses:

Market Analysis Title Page..........................................................................................................107

Market Analysis Table of Contents.............................................................................................109

Market Analysis Preface..............................................................................................................114

Alaska Pollock Fillets Market Analysis.......................................................................................117

Alaska Pollock Surimi Market Analysis......................................................................................133

Alaska Pollock Roe Market Analysis..........................................................................................145

Pacific Cod Market Analysis.......................................................................................................153

Sablefish Market Analysis...........................................................................................................171

Yellowfin and Rock Sole Market Analysis.................................................................................179

Arrowtooth Flounder Market Analysis........................................................................................193

iv
Appendix A: Alaska Groundfish Export Market Forecast Methodology and Details.................201

Appendix A-1: Comparisons Between 2007 Forecasts and Actual Data....................................205

Appendix A-2: Detailed Monthly Export Forecasts for 2008 and 2009......................................215

Research Updates and Publications:

Ongoing AFSC Socioeconomic Project Summaries and Updates...............................................217

AFSC Socioeconomic Research Recent Publications List..........................................................263

v
INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK

vi
List of Figures

1. Groundfish catch in the commercial fisheries off Alaska by species, 1984-2007.

2. Groundfish catch in the domestic commercial fisheries off Alaska by species, 1984-2007.

3. Real ex-vessel value of the groundfish catch in the domestic commercial fisheries off
Alaska by species, 1984-2007 (base year = 2007).

4. Real ex-vessel value of the domestic fish and shellfish catch off Alaska, 1984-2007 (base
year = 2006).

5. Real gross product value of the groundfish catch off Alaska, 1993-2007 (base year =
2007).

6. Number of vessels in the domestic groundfish fishery off Alaska by gear type, 1994-
2007.

List of Tables

Catch Data

1. Groundfish catch in the commercial fisheries off Alaska by area and species, 1997-2007.

2. Groundfish catch off Alaska by area, vessel type, gear and species, 2003-07.

3. Gulf of Alaska groundfish catch by species, gear, and target fishery, 2006-07.

4. Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands groundfish catch by species, gear, and target fishery,
2006-07.

5. Groundfish catch off Alaska by area, residency, and species, 2003-07.

Groundfish Discards and Discard Rates

6. Discards and discard rates for groundfish catch off Alaska by area, gear, and species,
2003-07.

7. Gulf of Alaska groundfish discards by species, gear, and target fishery, 2006-07.

8. Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands groundfish discards by species, gear, and target fishery,
2006-07.

9. Gulf of Alaska groundfish discard rates by species, gear, and target fishery, 2006-07.

vii
10. Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands groundfish discard rates by species, gear, and target
fishery, 2006-07.

Prohibited-Species Bycatch

11. Prohibited species bycatch by species, area and gear, 2004-07.

12. Prohibited species bycatch in the Gulf of Alaska by species, gear, and groundfish target
fishery, 2006-07.

13. Prohibited species bycatch in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands by species, gear, and
groundfish target fishery, 2006-07.

14. Prohibited species bycatch rates in the Gulf of Alaska by species, gear, and groundfish
target fishery, 2006-07.

15. Prohibited species bycatch rates in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands by species, gear,
and groundfish target fishery, 2006-07.

Ex-Vessel Prices and Value

16. Real ex-vessel value of the catch in the domestic commercial fisheries off Alaska by
species group, 1984-2007 (base year = 2007).

17. Percentage distribution of ex-vessel value of the catch in the domestic commercial
fisheries off Alaska by species group, 1984-2007.

18. Ex-vessel prices in the groundfish fisheries off Alaska by area, gear, and species, 2003-
07.

19. Ex-vessel value of the groundfish catch off Alaska by area, vessel category, gear, and
species, 2003-07.

20. Ex-vessel value of Alaska groundfish delivered to shoreside processors by area, gear and
catcher vessel length, 1997-2007.

21. Ex-vessel value per catcher vessel for Alaska groundfish delivered to shoreside
processors by area, gear, and catcher-vessel length, 1997-2007.

22. Ex-vessel value of the groundfish catch off Alaska by area, residency, and species, 2003-
07.

viii
23. Ex-vessel value of groundfish delivered to shoreside processors by processor group,
2001-07.

24. Ex-vessel value of groundfish as a percentage of the ex-vessel value of all species
delivered to shoreside processors by processor group, 2001-07.

First Wholesale Production, Prices and Value

25. Production and gross value of groundfish products in the fisheries off Alaska by species
and product type, 2003-07.

26. Price per pound of groundfish products in the fisheries off Alaska by species and
processing mode, 2003-07.

27. Total product value per round metric ton of retained catch in the groundfish fisheries off
Alaska by processor type, species, area and year, 2003-07.

28. Production of groundfish products in the fisheries off Alaska by species, product and
area, 2003-07.

29. Production of groundfish products in the fisheries off Alaska by species, product and
processing mode, 2003-07.

30. Production and gross value of non-groundfish products in the commercial fisheries of
Alaska by species group and area of processing, 2003-07.

31. Gross product value of Alaska groundfish by area and processing mode, 2001-07.

32. Gross product value of Alaska groundfish by catcher/processor category, vessel length,
and area, 2001-07.

33. Gross product value per vessel of Alaska groundfish by catcher/processor category,
vessel length, and area 2001-07.

34. Gross product value of groundfish processed by shoreside processors by processor group,
2001-07.

35. Groundfish gross product value as a percentage of all-species gross product value by
shoreside processor group, 2001-07.

Counts and Average Revenue of Vessels That Meet a Revenue Threshold

36. Number of groundfish vessels that caught or caught and processed more than $4.0 million
ex-vessel value or product value of groundfish and other species, by area, vessel type and
gear, 2003-07.

ix
37. Number of groundfish vessels that caught or caught and processed less than $4.0 million
ex-vessel value or product value of groundfish and other species by area, vessel type and
gear, 2003-07.

38. Average revenue of groundfish vessels that caught or caught and processed more than
$4.0 million ex-vessel value or product value of groundfish and other species, by area,
vessel type and gear, 2003-07.

39. Average revenue of groundfish vessels that caught or caught and processed less than $4.0
million ex-vessel value or product value of groundfish and other species, by area, vessel
type and gear, 2003-07.

Effort (Fleet Size, Weeks of Fishing, Crew Weeks)

40. Number and total registered net tons of vessels that caught groundfish off Alaska by area
and gear, 2001-07.

41. Number of vessels that caught groundfish off Alaska by area, vessel category, gear and
target, 2003-07.

42. Number of vessels, mean length and mean net tonnage for vessels that caught groundfish
off Alaska by area, vessel-length class, and gear, 2003-07 (excluding catcher/processors).

43. Number of smaller hook-and-line vessels that caught groundfish off Alaska, by area and
vessel-length class, 2003-07 (excluding catcher-processors).

44. Number of vessels, mean length and mean net tonnage for vessels that caught and
processed groundfish off Alaska by area, vessel-length class, and gear, 2003-07.

45. Number of vessels that caught groundfish off Alaska by area, tonnage caught, and gear,
2001-07.

46. Number of vessels that caught groundfish off Alaska by area, residency, target, and gear,
2003-07.

47. Number of vessels that caught groundfish off Alaska by month, area, vessel type, and
gear, 2003-07.

48. Catcher vessel (excluding catcher/processors) weeks of fishing groundfish off Alaska by
area, vessel-length class, gear, and target, 2003-07.

49. Catcher/processor vessel weeks of fishing groundfish off Alaska by area, vessel-length
class, gear, and target, 2003-07.

x