Table Of ContentStochastic Hydrology and its Use in
Water Resources Systems Simulation
and Optimization
NATO ASI Series
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Series E: Applied Sciences - Vol. 237
Stochastic Hydrology
and its Use in
Water Resources Systems
Simulation and Optimization
edited by
J. B. Marco
Universidad Politecnica de Valencia,
Valencia, Spain
R. Harboe
Asian Institute of Technology,
Bangkok, Thailand
and
J. D. Salas
Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A.
Springer Science+Business Media, B.V.
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on
Stochastic Hydrology and its Use in Water Resources Systems Simulation and
Optimization
Peniscola, Spain
18-29 September 1989
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Stochastic hydrolcgy and Its use 1n water resources systems simulation
and optimization / edited by J.B. Marco, R. Harboe, J.D. Salas.
p. cm. — (NATO ASI series. Series E, Applied sciences ; vol.
237)
"Lectures and ... papers presented at the joint NATO-Advanced
Study Institute meeting on 'Stochastic hydrology and Its use in
water resources systems simulation and optimization' which was held
at Peniscola, Spain, in September 1989"—Pref.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-94-010-4743-2 ISBN 978-94-011-1697-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-1697-8
1. Hydrology—Statistical methods—Congresses. 2. Stochastic
processes—Congresses. I. Marco, J. B. (Juan B. ) II. Harboe, R.
III. Salas, J. D. (Jose D. ) IV/. Series: NATO ASI series. Series E,
Applied sciences ; no. 237.
GB565.2.S7S83 1993
551.48'01'5192--dc20 93-19300
ISBN 978-94-010-4743-2
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 1993 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1993
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photo
copying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written
permission from the copyright owner.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface vii
PART I
INVITED PAPERS ON STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY
General Introduction to application of Stochastic Hydrology
in Water Resources 3
V. YEVJEVICH
Philosophy of Model Building 25
K.W. HIPEL
Models for Data Generation in Hydrology: Univariate Techniques 47
J.D. SALAS and B. FERNANDEZ
Models for Data Generation in Hydrology: Multivariate Techniques 75
J.D. SALAS
Aggregation and Disaggregation Modelling 97
W.L. LANE
ARMAX and Transfer Function Modelling in Hydrology 117
J.B. MARCO
Stochastic Models of Temporal Rainfall: Reproducibility,
Estimation and Prediction of Extreme Events 137
P. BURLANDO and R.ROSSO
Practical Results in Simulation and Forecasting 175
K.W. HI PEL
Use and Misuse of Stochastic Hydrology in Water Resources 189
V. YEVJEVICH
Panel Discussions:
Some thoughts about the State of the Art in Stochastic
Hydrology and Streamflow Forecasting 209
D.P. LETTENMAIER
Issues in the Modelling of Precipitation 217
J.B. VALDES
PART II
CONTRIBUTED PAPERS ON STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY
Some Applications of Time Series Models to Climate Study
(Southern Oscillation): Modelling, Forecasting and Predictability 223
PAO-SHIN CHU
Conceptual Basis of Stochastic Models of Monthly Streamflows 229
P. CLAPS
A Nonlinear, Nonstationary Stochastic Model for the Prediction
of Storage in the Edward Aquifer, Texas 237
F.A. SAENZ DE ORMIJANA
Appropriate time resolution for stochastic drought analysis 247
R. RODRIGUES, M.A. SANTOS and F.N. CORREIA
vi
Parameter Estimation in Real-time Flood Forecasting via
Conceptual Models 267
A_ BRATH and R_ROSSO
Linear Stochastic Non-Stationary Rainfall-Runoff Modelling
and Forecasting 283
P_A_TROCH, F_P_ DE TROCH and J_VAN HYFTE
PART III
INVITED PAPERS ON WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION AND SIMULATION
Explicit Stochastic Optimization 295
R_ HARBOE
Implicit Stochastic Optimization and Simulation 307
D_P_ LOUCKS
Multiobjective Analysis in Water Resources
Part 1_ Numerical versus Non-numerical Criteria and Discrete
Versus Continuous Alternatives 319
L_ DUCKSTEIN and A_ TECLE
Multiobjective Analysis in Water Resources
Part 11_ A New Typology of MCDM Techniques 333
L_ DUCKSTEIN and A_ TECLE
Combining Simulation and Optimization in River Basin Management 345
J_W_ LABADIE
Decision Support Systems in Water Resources 373
J_W_ LABADIE
Expert Systems in Water Resourr.es Simulation and Optimization 397
K_ FEDRA
The Segura River Basin Model_ Disaggregation in a Semiarid Environment 413
J_B_ MARCO
Optimization and Simulation Models Applied to the Segura Water
Resources System in Spain 425
J_ ANDREU and J_ CAPILLA
Iterative Dynamic Programming Techniques: a Case Study 439
M_ BAYAZIT
Use and Non-use of Water Management Models in Sweden: Experiences
from Model Development Test 453
L_M_ de MARE
PART IV
CONTRIBUTED PAPERS ON WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION AND SIMULATION
Practical Implementation of Water resource Systems Analysis in a
Water Utility in the UK 463
S_ WALKER
Expert Systems for Flood Hydrological Forecasting and Decision Support 469
E_ CIFRES, J_ CUENA and L_ GARROTE
481
Subject Index
PREFACE
This is a book of proceedings containing the invited lecture
papers, some selected contributing papers and case studies
presented at the joint NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI) on
"Stochastic Hydrology and its Use in Water Resources Systems
Simulation and Optimization" which was held at Pefiiscola, Spain.
A total of 79 participants from seventeen countries attended the
Institute.
The main objective of this NATO ASI was to discuss the state of
the art on stochastic methods and techniques for hydrological
data analysis, data generation and forecasting which are used in
the simulation and optimization of water resources systems.
Since hydrological processes, such as precipitation and
streamflow, are generally stochastic, some degree of randomness
and uncertainty are involved in the design of hydraulic
structures and in the planning and management of water resources
systems.
A great deal of work has been done on the subject of stochastic
hydrology during the past three decades. Likewise, considerable
work exists on simulation and optimization of water resources
systems. These proceedings discuss in detail the advances made
on these subjects.
The contents of this book are organized into four sections:
- Lectures on Stochastic Hydrology
- Papers on Stochastic Hydrology
- Lectures on Water Resources Systems Analysis
- Papers on Water Resources Systems Analysis
The section on lectures consists of the lecture papers delivered
by a selected group of invited speakers plus the comments from
two invited panelists. The section on papers contains those from
a group of contributing speakers along with case study papers.
The NATO ASI was organized with the support of the Scientific
Affairs Division of NATO, the Department of Hydraulic Engineering
and Environment of the Polyt echnical University of Valencia,
Spain, the Water Resources Department of Ruhr University,
Germany, and the Hydraulic Science and Engineering Program,
Department of Civil Engineering of Colorado State University,
USA. The organizers would like to express their sincere
gratitude to Dr L.V. Da Cunha for his continuous support in the
preparation of the meeting and in the publishing of this book of
proceedings.
The meeting was also sponsored by the Direccion General de Obras
Publicas of the Ministry of Public Works of Spain. Thanks are
due to its former General Director, Dr. Jose Luis Rubio, and to
the President of the Confederacion Hidrografica del Jucar, Dr.
Jose Carles, for their support and encouragement for carrying out
the meeting. Likewise, our gratitude goes to the Diputacion
Provincial de Castellon for providing some of the meeting
facilities at Pefiiscola.
viii
The assistance from our younger colleagues and studeIlts Dr.
Rafael Garcia-Bartual, Patricia Barreda and Carlos Lazaro and
from the secretary Mrs. Pilar Almor, was extremely important in
making the meeting a successful event.
Lastly, our special thanks go to all the invited speakers who
donated their valuable time for writing, lecturing and
participating in discussions during the NATO ASI. Likewise, our
thanks to all the contributing speakers, to the members of the
panel of discussions, and to all the participants in general, who
formally and informally contributed to the success of the
Institute.
Juan B. Marco
Valencia, Spain
March 1993
PART I
INVITED PAPERS ON STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY
GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO APPLICATION OF STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY IN
WATER RESOURCES
VUJICA YEVJEVICH
Professor Emeritus of Civil Engineering
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, Colorado 80523
USA
ABSTRACT. Addition of stochastic hydrology to classical mathematical
hydrologic statistics in the last three decades has meant new tools for
more accurate solutions of various complex planning, design and operation
problems in water resources development. Stochastic hydrology is conceived
in this writing as studies and corresponding mathematical modeling of
spatial-temporal hydrologic stochastic processes. Rush to develop models
of these processes by researchers has often neglected the in-depth
investigations of reliability of basic data and particularly of the
structure of hydrologic inputs and outputs of water resources systems,
namely their general composition of tendency, intermittency, periodicity
and stochasticity. This neglect concerned not only details of these four
characteristics but also their interactions. Several reasons of practical
and general significance may justify efforts for mathematical modeling of
hydrologic stochastic processes, the main one being the feasibility to
simulate potential future samples of systems inputs and outputs, as well
as their relationships, all for the purpose of solving more accurately
complex water resources problems. Optimization of water resources
decisions is benefited significantly by varlous forms of advanced
hydrologic information, one of these forms being the hydrologic spatial
temporal stochastic models.
1. Historical Development of Statistical Hydrology
1.1. TWO TYPES OF HISTORICAL HYDROLOGIC DEVELOPMENTS
A careful review of contributions to hydrology in the past century reveals
two basic types of development. First, there is a clear emergence of
utilitarian hydrology (also called applied, engineering or practical
hydrology), and the recent emergence of theoretical hydrology (also called
basic, scientific, analytical-mathematical hydrology), as the two opposite
poles of the entire hydrologic spectrum of activities and approaches. The
other type of development is the division of hydrologic investigations into
physical or deterministic hydrology and statistical or stochastic
hydrology.
3
J.B. Marco et al. (eds.),
Stochastic Hydrology and its Use in Water Resources Systems Simulation and Optimization, 3-23.
© 1993 Kluwer Academic Publishers.
