Still making nukes

7 Pages·2021·0.07 MB·English

Russia Strengthening &
Modernizing Its
Nuclear Weapons
Russian Nuclear Forces In 2003
Nuclear Notebook
©2003 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
July/August 2003
Vol. 59, No.4, pp. 70-72
6-28-3

As of mid-2003, Russia has approximately 8,250 operational nuclear warheads in
its arsenal. This includes about 4,850 strategic warheads, representing a slight
decrease from last year's level due to the removal of some MIRVed
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Our estimate of Russia's operational
non-strategic nuclear weapons-3,400-remains unchanged from last year (see the
July/August 2002 Bulletin).

Estimating the size, composition, and status of the Russian nuclear stockpile has
always been difficult. At the end of the Cold War in 1991, the Soviet Union may
have had as many as 35,000 nuclear weapons-though not all of them were fielded.

The number of warheads in the Soviet arsenal peaked in the 1980s, after which
the Soviets began to dismantle them on a substantial scale. Estimates of the
dismantlement rate vary widely, from hundreds to 1,000-2,000 per year. U.S.
Defense Department and CIA estimates suggest that Russia dismantled slightly
more than 1,000 warheads per year throughout the 1990s. A few oblique Russian
statements have hinted at a faster rate. It has been impossible to learn the pace of
dismantlement, whether it has been steady or intermittent, or the size of the
arsenal when the effort began. Based on the best available information, we
estimate that the total current arsenal of intact warheads is around 18,000. Of
those, some 8,250 are considered active and operational; the rest occupy an
indeterminate status. Some may be officially retired and awaiting disassembly;
others may be in short- or long-term storage, similar to the American categories
of "responsive force" and "inactive reserve."

One important recent development was the demise of the START II Treaty,
precipitated in part by the Bush administration's withdrawal from the Anti-
Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and its signing of the Moscow Treaty. The U.S.
Senate ratified the Moscow Treaty on March 6, 2003, by a vote of 95-0; the
Russian Duma ratified it on May 14, 2003, by a vote of 294-134. Though the

START II Treaty never entered into force, both Russia and the United States had
been following its terms to structure their forces. One of its significant
requirements was a ban on MIRVed (multiple independently targetable reentry
vehicles) ICBMs; now, after START's collapse, Russia has reversed course and
plans to retain its multi-warhead SS-18s and SS-19s as the core of its strategic
nuclear arsenal until at least 2016. Russia's Foreign Ministry announced in June,
"The Russian Federation notes the absence of any preconditions for START II to
come into force and no longer considers itself committed to the international legal
obligations" of the treaty.

In his State of the Nation Address on May 16, President Vladimir Putin spoke of
strengthening and modernizing Russia's nuclear deterrent by creating new types
of weapons, including those for strategic forces, that will "ensure the defense
capability of Russia and its allies in the long term."

Intercontinental ballistic missiles. With START II a dead letter, Russia has
stopped withdrawing and destroying its SS-18 MIRVed missiles. A total of 138
SS-18s remain in service: 52 at Dombarovski, 40 at Kartaly, and 46 at Uzhur. A
fourth division at Aleysk was disbanded in 2001, and the last of 30 silos were
destroyed on January 31, 2002. Under START II, the full phase-out of the
missiles was to be completed in 2007. Now, two of the three remaining divisions,
or perhaps all three, will be retained until 2016. Some SS-18s may be retired by
2015 or earlier due to aging. Two variants of the SS-18 are currently deployed:
the RS-20B and the newer RS-20V. Although START counted all SS-18s as
carrying 10 warheads, the RS-20B can carry a single warhead, and a few of these
may be deployed. The missile system will be reconfigured to extend its service
life. A fully loaded SS-18 has a range of 11,000 kilometers; the single warhead
can reach 15,000 kilometers.

Nine rail-based SS-24 M1s are deployed at Bershet and 15 at Kostroma. The 12
SS-24s at the third division at Krasnoyarsk were reportedly taken off alert duty on
March 14, 2002, and disbanded, although the unit is still listed in the January
2003 START Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Russia's MIRVed SS-24s
were slated to be scrapped under START II, but the head of Strategic Missile
Forces, Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, announced in August 2002 that one division
would be retained, probably at Kostroma.

Production of the single-warhead SS-27 (called the Topol-M in Russia) continues
and is a priority item in the 2003 Russian military budget. Because it is retaining
MIRVed missiles, Russia feels less urgency to steadily produce and deploy the
SS-27/Topol-M. Deployments have been slow. In 1998 the Strategic Rocket
Forces planned deployment of 20-30 per year over three years and 30-40 per year
for the next three years for a force of 160-220. In fact, deployment in 2003
includes only 30 missiles, with a future force of 50-60 by the end of 2005. Russia
may eventually decide to equip some of the missiles with multiple warheads. The

SS-27s are housed in former SS-19 and SS-24 silos at Tatishchevo.

Recent ICBM test launches include the firing of an SS-19 (RS-18) missile from
the Baikonur Space Center on December 10. The missile's six dummy warheads
impacted on the Kura test range on the Kamchatka peninsula. An SS-25 was
launched from Plesetsk on October 12, 2002. The Russian Ministry of Defense
announced on March 18, 2002 that it would resume test launches of the SS-27 and
a Topol-M was launched on June 6, 2002.

Ballistic missile submarines. Russia maintains 14 operational nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs): two Typhoons, six Delta IVs, and six Delta
IIIs. This is a dramatic reduction from 1990, when 62 subs were reported
operational. The subs carry three types of submarine-launched ballistic missiles
(SLBMs): 40 SS-N-20s, 96 SS-N-23s, and 96 SS-N-18 M1s, respectively. All
Yankee, Delta I, and Delta II SSBNs have been withdrawn from operational
service. Of the original 14 Delta IIIs, seven have been removed from service, and
one has been converted to a deep submergence rescue vehicle (DSRV) carrier. Of
the original seven Delta IVs, one has been removed from service. Operational
SSBNs in the Northern Fleet are based on the Kola Peninsula (at Nerpichya and
Yagelnaya) and in the Pacific Fleet (at Rybachi, 15 kilometers southwest of
Petropavlovsk) on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

The future of the last two (of six) Typhoon submarines in the Northern Fleet has
long been in question. In March 2001, the Russian Navy announced its intent to
overhaul and keep in service three Typhoon subs. The Arkhangelsk was reported
to have left dry dock and returned to its base at Zapadnaya Litsa on November 9,
2002. The Dimitri Donskoi completed a 10-year conversion in June 2002 as a trial
platform for the future SS-N-27 Bulava, an SLBM version of the Topol-M ICBM.

This summer, the Delta IV sub Yekaterinburg will rejoin the Northern Fleet after
having completed scheduled repairs at the Zvyozdochka shipyard at
Severodvinsk. Two other submarines of this class, the Tula and the Bryansko, are
under repair at the shipyard.

Interfax reported on April 21, 2002, that the first unit of the new Borey-class
SSBN, the Yuri Dolgoruki, had left dry dock at the Severodvinsk shipyard. Its
keel was laid in November 1996, but construction has been intermittent and was
suspended altogether in 1998 while the submarine was being redesigned to
accommodate a new SLBM. The Russian Navy hopes to commission the first
boat in 2005.

Production of SS-N-23s resumed in 1999 to support the remaining Delta IVs,
along with a service life extension program. There are reports of an SS-N-23
SLBM variant under consideration that would carry 10 warheads instead of four.
The CIA concluded in 1988 that the SS-N-23 Mod-2 (RSM-54) SLBM provided

Russia with, "an emerging sea-based capability to destroy hardened targets."

SLBM combat training launches were conducted on October 12, 2002 from the
Pacific Fleet and Northern Fleet in conjunction with exercises involving ICBM,
cruise missile, and ABM tests.

Economic problems, a shrinking SSBN fleet, and safety concerns after the sinking
of the Kursk in August 2000, have led to dramatic decreases in the number of
annual SSBN patrols, from 37 in 1991 to zero in 2002, according to the U.S.
Office of Naval Intelligence. Patrols of nuclear-powered attack submarines
(SSNs) and cruise missile submarines (SSGNs) also declined from 18 patrols in
1991 to only three in 2002.

Strategic aviation. Russian strategic bombers include 79 aircraft of three types: 15
Tu-160 Blackjacks, 34 Tu-95 MS6 Bear H6s, and 30 Tu-95 MS16 Bear H16s.
Strategic bombers are part of the Russian Air Force's 37th Air Army. According
to the January 31, 2003 START I Treaty MOU, Bear bombers are deployed at the
following airbases: 14 H16s at Ukrainka in Siberia (79th Heavy Guard Bomber
Regiment), 13 at Engels (121st Heavy Bomber Regiment), and three at Ryazan;
26 H-6s at Ukrainka, five at Engels, and three at Ryazan.

Russian strategic aircraft carry AS-15A/B air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs),
AS-16 short-range attack missiles (SRAMs), and/or nuclear bombs. Combined,
the 79 aircraft are assigned an estimated 864 cruise missiles and bombs. Each
Blackjack can carry as many as 12 AS-15B ALCMs or AS-16 SRAMs and
bombs. The Bear H16 carries as many as 16 AS-15A ALCMs and bombs, while
the Bear H6 can carry as many as six AS-15A ALCMs and bombs. For more than
a decade, Russia has been developing a nuclear variant of a new cruise missile,
similar to the U.S. advanced cruise missile, but with a prop engine, for Blackjack
and Bear bombers. In January 2002, the missile was reported to be in final stages
of development. Russia may convert some ALCMs to non-nuclear missiles, as the
United States has done. Flight tests of converted ALCMs have taken place.

Fifteen Blackjacks are based at Engels airbase. Eight were transferred to Russia
from Ukraine in late 1999 and early 2000 in exchange for partial payment of
Ukrainian natural gas debts. These bombers' operational status has been unclear
due to needed repairs. In March 2002, air force commander in chief Vladimir
Mikhailov announced that all 15 Tu-160s would undergo modernization of
avionics, communication equipment, and weapon systems. The modernization
will extend their service lives and allow them to carry "new types of missiles with
conventional and nuclear warheads." In addition, three partially built Blackjacks
were scheduled to be completed by 2003 and added to the force.

In April 2002, strategic bombers participated in a large-scale exercise with aircraft
operating out of Engels, Ukrainka, and Ryazan air bases, as well as from several

forward operating bases. The strategic aircraft included Tu-95 MS Bears and also
tactical Tu-22 M3 Backfire bombers. As many as 20 aircraft were reported to be
in the air simultaneously in what was described as the largest exercise in 10 years.
Operations took place over the entire Russian territory, the Arctic, and the Sea of
Japan. Japanese fighters intercepted bombers over the Sea of Japan, and two Bear
bombers flew within 37 miles of U.S. airspace, where U.S. fighters intercepted
them. Similar operations took place in February 2001.

Two other exercises were held in February 2002. One, in Russia's southwestern
region, included two Tu-95 MS Bear bombers conducting simulated cruise
missile and bomb strikes on targets in Astrakhan oblast and the Leningrad district.
The other, in the Caspian Sea region, involved strategic Tu-160 Blackjacks, Tu-
95 MS Bears, and tactical Tu-22 M3 Backfire aircraft conducting simulated
missile launches on the Ashuluk and Vladimirovka ranges.

Strategic forces

Type Name Launchers Year deployed

Warheads x yield (kiloton) Total warheads

ICBMs

SS-18 Satan 138 1979 10 x 550/750

(MIRV) 1,380

SS-19 Stiletto 134 1980 6 x 550/750

(MIRV) 804

SS-24 M1 Scalpel 36 1987 10 x 550

(MIRV) 360

SS-25 Sickle 342 1985 1 x 550 342

SS-27 n.a. 30 1997 1 x 550 30

Total 680 2,916

SLBMs

SS-N-18 M1 Stingray 96 1978 3 x 200

(MIRV) 288

SS-N-20 Sturgeon 40 1983 10 x 100

(MIRV) 400

SS-N-23 Skiff 96 1986 4 x 100 (MIRV)

384

Total 232 1,072

Bomber/weapons

Tu-95 MS6 Bear H6 34 1984 6 AS-15A

ALCMs or bombs 204

Tu-95 MS16 Bear H16 30 1984 16 AS-15A

ALCMs or bombs 480

Tu-160 Blackjack 15 1987 12 AS-15B

ALCMs, AS-16 SRAMs, or bombs 180

Total 79 864

Grand total 991 ~4,850

ALCM-air-launched cruise missile;

AS-air-to-surface missile; ICBM-intercontinental

ballistic missile, range greater than 5,500

kilometers;

MIRV-multiple independently targetable

reentry vehicles; SLBM-submarine-launched

ballistic missile; SRAM-short-range attack missile

Nuclear Notebook is prepared by Robert S.

Norris and Hans M. Kristensen of the Natural

Resources Defense Council (NRDC). Inquiries should

be directed to NRDC, 1200 New York Avenue, N.W.,

Suite 400, Washington, D.C., 20005; 202-289-6868.