Statistics: Concepts and Controversies with Tables & ESEE Access Card, 7th Edition

641 Pages·2008·3.68 MB·English

by  David S. Moore

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Statistics
ConceptsandControversies
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Statistics
Concepts and Controversies
SEVENTHEDITION
David S. Moore
Purdue University
William I. Notz
The Ohio State University
W. H. Freeman and Company
New York
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Brief Contents
Part I Producing Data 1
1 Where Do Data Come From? 3
2 Samples, Good and Bad 21
3 What Do Samples Tell Us? 35
4 Sample Surveys in the Real World 57
5 Experiments, Good and Bad 81
6 Experiments in the Real World 101
7 Data Ethics 123
8 Measuring 143
9 Do the Numbers Make Sense? 165
Part I Review 181
Part II Organizing Data 191
10 Graphs, Good and Bad 193
11 Displaying Distributions with Graphs 217
12 Describing Distributions with Numbers 239
13 Normal Distributions 265
14 Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation 287
15 Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction,
and Causation 311
16 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics 339
Part II Review 359
v
vi BriefContents
Part III Chance 373
17 Thinking about Chance 375
18 Probability Models 395
19 Simulation 411
20 The House Edge: Expected Values 429
Part III Review 445
Part IV Inference 453
21 What Is a Confidence Interval? 455
22 What Is a Test of Significance? 481
23 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference 505
24 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-Square Test∗ 521
Part IV Review 545
∗Thismaterialisoptional.
Contents
TotheTeacher:StatisticsasaLiberalDiscipline xiii
ApplicationsIndex xxi
Prelude:MakingSenseofStatistics xxvii
StatisticsandYou:WhatLiesAheadinThisBook xxxiii
AbouttheAuthors xxxv
Part I Producing Data 1
1 Where Do Data Come From? 3
CaseStudy 3 Talkingaboutdata:Individualsandvariables 4
Observationalstudies 6 Samplesurveys 8 Census 11
Experiments 12 StatisticsinSummary 14 CaseStudy
Evaluated 14 Chapter1Exercises 15 ExploringtheWeb 19
NotesandDataSources 19
2 Samples, Good and Bad 21
CaseStudy 21 Howtosamplebadly 21 Simplerandom
samples 23 Canyoutrustasample? 28 StatisticsinSummary 29
CaseStudyEvaluated 30 Chapter2Exercises 30 Exploringthe
Web 34 NotesandDataSources 34
3 What Do Samples Tell Us? 35
CaseStudy 35 Fromsampletopopulation 36 Sampling
variability 37 Marginoferrorandallthat 41 Confidence
statements 43 Samplingfromlargepopulations 45 Statistical
Controversies:ShouldElectionPollsBeBanned? 46 Statisticsin
Summary 47 CaseStudyEvaluated 48 Chapter3Exercises 48
ExploringtheWeb 54 NotesandDataSources 55
4 Sample Surveys in the Real World 57
CaseStudy 57 Howsamplesurveysgowrong 58 Sampling
errors 58 Nonsamplingerrors 60 Wordingquestions 63
Howtolivewithnonsamplingerrors 65 Sampledesigninthereal
world 65 Questionstoaskbeforeyoubelieveapoll 70 Statisticsin
Summary 70 CaseStudyEvaluated 71 Chapter4Exercises 71
ExploringtheWeb 78 NotesandDataSources 79
vii
viii Contents
5 Experiments, Good and Bad 81
CaseStudy 81 Talkingaboutexperiments 81 Howtoexperiment
badly 83 Randomizedcomparativeexperiments 85 Thelogicof
experimentaldesign 88 Statisticalsignificance 90 Howtolive
withobservationalstudies 91 StatisticsinSummary 93 Case
StudyEvaluated 93 Chapter5Exercises 94 ExploringtheWeb 99
NotesandDataSources 100
6 Experiments in the Real World 101
CaseStudy 101 Equaltreatmentforall 101 Double-blind
experiments 102 Refusals,nonadherers,anddropouts 104
Canwegeneralize? 106 Experimentaldesignintherealworld 108
Matchedpairsandblockdesigns 110 StatisticalControversies:IsIt
orIsn’tItaPlacebo? 113 StatisticsinSummary 114 CaseStudy
Evaluated 114 Chapter6Exercises 115 ExploringtheWeb 120
NotesandDataSources 121
7 Data Ethics 123
CaseStudy 123 Firstprinciples 123 Institutionalreview
boards 125 Informedconsent 125 Confidentiality 127 Clinical
trials 128 StatisticalControversies:HopeforSale? 130
Behavioralandsocialscienceexperiments 132 Statisticsin
Summary 134 CaseStudyEvaluated 134 Chapter7Exercises 135
ExploringtheWeb 141 NotesandDataSources 141
8 Measuring 143
CaseStudy 143 Measurementbasics 143 Knowyour
variables 145 Measurementsvalidandinvalid 147 Statistical
Controversies:SATExamsinCollegeAdmissions 150
Measurementsaccurateandinaccurate 151 Improvingreliability,
reducingbias 153 Pitythepoorpsychologist 155 Statisticsin
Summary 157 CaseStudyEvaluated 158 Chapter8Exercises 158
ExploringtheWeb 163 NotesandDataSources 163
9 Do the Numbers Make Sense? 165
CaseStudy 165 Whatdidn’ttheytellus? 165 Arethenumbers
consistentwitheachother? 167 Arethenumbersplausible? 169
Arethenumberstoogoodtobetrue? 169 Isthearithmetic
right? 170 Isthereahiddenagenda? 173 Statisticsin
Summary 174 CaseStudyEvaluated 174 Chapter9
Exercises 175 ExploringtheWeb 179 NotesandData
Sources 180