Table Of ContentSpace Technologies and Climate Change
Space Technologies
ImPlICaTIONS fOr WaTEr maNagEmENT, marINE rESOurCES
aND marITImE TraNSPOrT and Climate Change
This book examines the contributions that space technologies can make in tackling
some of the serious problems posed by climate change. Focusing on examples of ImPlICaTIONS fOr WaTEr
water management, marine resources and maritime transport, it sets out the rationale
maNagEmENT, marINE rESOurCES
for further developing satellite systems to measure and monitor climate change and
help mitigate its consequences. The report underlines the need to consider satellites aND marITImE TraNSPOrT
not just as research and development systems, but as an important component of a
critical communication- and information-based infrastructure for modern societies. The
tool box for decision makers that concludes the book reviews different methodological
options for deciding on investments in space-based earth observation.
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Space Technologies
and Climate Change
IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER MANAGEMENT,
MARINE RESOURCES AND MARITIME TRANSPORT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
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provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to
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Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand,
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FOREWORD
Foreword
T
his book examines the contributions that space technologies can make in tackling
some of the serious problems posed by climate change. Focusing on examples of water
management, marine resources and maritime transport, it sets out the rationale for
further developing satellite systems to measure and monitor climate change and help
mitigate its consequences. The report underlines the need to consider satellites not just
as research and development systems, but as an important component of a critical
communication-and information-based infrastructure for modern societies. The tool
box for decision makers that concludes the book reviews different methodological
options for deciding on investments in space-based earth observation.
This is the fourth publication related to space issues produced by the
International Futures Programme (IFP). The role of the IFP, the OECD’s strategic
foresight group, is to alert the Secretary-General and the Organisation to emerging
issues by pinpointing major developments and analysing long-term concerns, so as to
help governments map their strategy.
In2002, in collaboration with the space community, the OECD IFP launched a
project to explore how space technologies could contribute to finding solutions to some
of the major challenges facing society. Two publications resulted from that in-depth
project. Space2030: The Future of Space Applications explored promising space
applications for the 21stcentury. Space2030: Tackling Society’s Challenges
assessed the strengths and weaknesses of the regulatory structures governing space,
and formulated a framework that OECD member countries might use in drafting
policies to ensure that the potential offered by space is fully realised.
Upon completion of the two-year project, the IFP was strongly encouraged by a
number of institutions – especially space-related agencies – to continue exploring the
economic dimensions of space infrastructure. February2006 thus saw the launch of the
OECD Global Forum on Space Economics. This is an innovative platform for international
dialogue on the social and economic aspects of space activities (seeAnnexAfor a
description). One of the Forum’s most recent outputs is The Space Economy at a
Glance (2007), the first-ever OECD statistical overview of the emerging space economy.
The Forum is supported by contributions from a number of governments and
space agencies: ASI (Agenzia Spaziale Italiana, the Italian Space Agency), BNSC
(British National Space Centre), CNES (Centre National d’Études Spatiales, the French
Space Agency), CSA (Canadian Space Agency), ESA (European Space Agency), NASA
SPACE TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE – ISBN 978-92-64-05413-4 – © OECD 2008 3
FOREWORD
(US National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (US National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration), Norwegian Space Centre (Norsk Romsenter), and
USGS (United States Geological Survey).
The book makes particular reference to extensive relevant work conducted in
different OECD Directorates. Moreover, several Working Group meetings of the OECD
Space Forum were organised over the past two years to discuss and exchange
information on the case studies. For example, a special day-long session was organised
in October2007; 25participants from the sectors of marine resources and maritime
transport, as well as representatives from the space sector, were invited to feed the
Secretariat’s reflections. This report also makes reference to a large number of socio-
economic studies that have been carried out over the years, but which, though publicly
available, are not well known.
In addition to literature surveys, group and bilateral meetings, the IFP Secretariat
conducted interviews with space and non-space experts, and attended external
conferences. A first output of the case study work was an OECD Space Forum’s
internal working paper dedicated to fresh water management and the role of space
applications (June2007). The book builds on the report, and extends the case studies’
scope to include more general climate change issues, as well as dedicated work on
marine resources and maritime transport.
This publication was prepared by ClaireJolly, Policy Analyst in the Secretary-
General’s Advisory Unit, under the direction and guidance of BarrieStevens, Unit
Deputy Director, and Pierre-AlainSchieb, Head of Futures Projects, all working for the
OECD Global Forum on Space Economics. ShabnamMirsaeedi provided research
assistance, Randall Holden edited the report and Anita Gibson provided
administrative and editorial assistance. The report also draws on a number of ground-
breaking studies relating to climate change carried out by OECD colleagues, notably in
the Environment Directorate (ENV), the Fisheries Policy Division, and the Science,
Technology and Industry (STI) Directorate. Special thanks go to ShardulAgrawala
(ENV), JanCorfeeMorlot (ENV) and Carl-ChristianSchmidt (Fisheries Policy Division)
for their contributions.
4 SPACE TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE – ISBN 978-92-64-05413-4 – © OECD 2008
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
List of Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Chapter 1. Climate Change: Trends and Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Introduction to climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Main drivers of climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Climate change and extreme weather events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Outlook: unpleasant surprises for the near to medium-term future? . 23
Uncertainties and key assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Chapter 2. Fresh Water Management: Trends and Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Introduction to fresh water management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
The growing pressures on fresh water availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
The socio-economic risks of inadequate water supplies. . . . . . . . . . . 38
Fresh water and climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Chapter 3. Marine Resources and Maritime Transport: Trends
and Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Introduction to marine resources and maritime transport . . . . . . . . . 46
Marine resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Maritime transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Chapter 4. Capabilities of Space Technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Introduction to satellite technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Scientific knowledge about climate change, fresh water
and the oceans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Controlling maritime and marine areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Safety at sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Chapter 5. Outlook for Space Technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Remedying technical limitations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
The future of earth observation for climate monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Chapter 6. Tool Box for Policy Makers: Costs, Benefits
and Investment Decisions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Definitions and key notions for evaluating space programmes . . . . . 128
Measuring the impacts of R&D programmes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
“Classic” return on investment techniques
(direct and indirect market valuation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
The infrastructure approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
A risk management approach to investment
in space-based infrastructures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Annex A. The OECD Forum on Space Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Annex B. Basics on Satellite Sensors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Boxes
1.1. Changes in the Arctic region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.2. Selected uncertainties and assumptions concerning
climate change projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.1. The OECD and water management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.1. Improving weather forecasting by measuring water vapour . . . . . 78
4.2. Monitoring jellyfish proliferation in seas and oceans . . . . . . . . . . . 84
4.3. Measuring river flow with radar satellite. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.4. Coupling essential insitu systems and satellites for monitoring
sea level rise and ocean temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
4.5. Tracking the world’s water supplies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4.6. Description of Vessel Traffic Services (VTS). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.7. The Cospas-Sarsat system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
4.8. Improving alerts in case of tsunamis via satellite
communications links . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
5.1. Methodology used to assess the2006 stock value of active earth
observation satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
6.1. Challenges in evaluating space programme costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
6.2. Challenges encountered when analysing the impacts
of public R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
6.3. Detection of oil pollution in the Mediterranean Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
6.4. Background on the contingent valuation method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
6.5. Definition of public good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Tables
2.1. Global water use from1900 to2025 (Cubic kilometres). . . . . . . . . . 36
2.2. Ground water abstraction in selected regions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.3. Percentage of population served by water supply
and sanitation services, 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.4. Benefit/cost ratios for water management interventions
in developing regions and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1. List of countries with exclusive economic zones (EEZ) by area size. 47
3.2. Selected climate change connections with both fisheries
management and exploitation of mineral resources in sea-floor . 49
3.3. Climate change connections with maritime transport . . . . . . . . . . 57
3.4. EU external foreign trade by mode of transport, 2004 . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.5. Energy use and CO emissions associated with different modes
2
of transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.6. Episodic and routine pollution from ocean shipping activities . . . 63
4.1. Basics about satellites’ orbits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4.2. Examples of scientific accomplishments involving earth
observations and landmark satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
4.3. Thirty-four essential climate variables (ECVs) and their
dependence on satellite observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
4.4. List of remotely sensed oceanographic parameters, their
observational class, and representative satellites and sensors
they carry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
4.5. Overview of selected space systems with ocean-related missions 81
4.6. Requirements vs. capabilities for sea ice monitoring
and snow cover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
4.7. Overview of certain space-borne sensors for ocean
colour detection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
4.8. Radar and optical satellite images for ship detection . . . . . . . . . . . 95
4.9. Requirements vs. capabilities for monitoring oil pollutions. . . . . . 96
4.10. Civilian/dual-use radar satellites in operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4.11. Communications and navigation equipment carried
onboard ships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.12. Commercial satellite communications constellations. . . . . . . . . . . 101
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
5.1. Satellite navigation augmentation systems
(ground-and space-based). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.2. Possible system performance for a space-based AIS system . . . . . 111
5.3. Examples of international organisations promoting co-operation
in climate-related observations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
5.4. Possible components of a space-based global observing
system by2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.5. Estimated annual investments (maintenance, replacement,
expansion) in earth observation (2006, 2005, 2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
5.6. Missions recommended by the US National Research Council
with estimated costs (January2007). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
5.7. Planned ESA Explorers and Sentinels earth observation
missions (2008-2013) (June2008). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
6.1. Main evaluation methods for analysing large programmes . . . . . . 128
6.2. Cost estimation techniques for space projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
6.3. Cost base for the ROSE study (2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
6.4. Anticipated operational and research contributions due
to extending the TRMM satellite missions to the fuel point
(approximately December2005) and beyond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
6.5. Monetary valuation methods, constraints and examples. . . . . . . . 142
6.6. General flood management benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
6.7. Actions and estimated benefits of using space assets
for flood management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
6.8. Maximum benefits that can be expected from the European
Risk-EOS services for floods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
6.9. Potential societal benefits from an oil spill detection system
(ROSES study) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
6.10. NAUPLIOS project: Costs and benefits of GALILEO’s added value . 154
6.11. Examples of the economic impacts (benefits/costs) of snow
and snow events in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
6.12. Outsourcing and devolution models for the provision
of infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
6.13. Selected commercial satellite operators in the earth
observation sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
6.14. Estimated annual world infrastructure expenditure
(additions and renewal) for selected sectors, 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
6.15. Estimated average annual world infrastructure expenditure
(additions and renewal) for selected sectors, 2000-20,
in USD billion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
6.16. Estimated annual investments (maintenance, replacement,
expansion) in earth observation (2006, 2005, 2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
8 SPACE TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE – ISBN 978-92-64-05413-4 – © OECD 2008
