Table Of ContentSTUDIES IN SOCIAL DISCONTINUITY
Under the Consulting Editorship of:
CHARLES TILLY EDWARD SHORTER
University of Michigan University of Toronto
In preparation
Jill S. Quadagno. Aging in Early Industrial Society: Work, Family, and Social
Policy in Nineteenth-Century England
Arthur L. Stinchcombe. Economic Sociology
Published
J. Dennis Willigan and Katherine A. Lynch. Sources and Methods of Historical
Demography
Dietrich Gerhard. Old Europe: A Study of Continuity, 1000-1800
Charles Tilly. As Sociology Meets History
Maris A. Vinovskis. Fertility in Massachusetts from the Revolution to the Civil
War
Juan G. Espinosa and Andrew S. Zimbalist, Economic Democracy: Workers' Par-
ticipation in Chilean Industry 1970-1973: Updated Student Edition
Alejandro Portes and John Walton. Labor, Class, and the International System
James H. Mittelman. Underdevelopment and the Transition to Socialism:
Mozambique and Tanzania
John R. Gillis. Youth and History: Tradition and Change in European Age
Relations, 1770—Present: Expanded Student Edition
Samuel Kline Cohn, Jr. The Laboring Classes in Renaissance Florence
Richard C. Trexler. Public Life in Renaissance Florence
Paul Oquist. Violence, Conflict, and Politics in Colombia
Fred Weinstein. The Dynamics of Nazism: Leadership, Ideology, and the
Holocaust
John R. Hanson II. Trade in Transition: Exports from the Third World,
1840-1900
Evelyne Huber Stephens. The Politics of Workers' Participation: The Peruvian
Approach in Comparative Perspective
Albert Bergesen (Ed.). Studies of the Modern World-System
Lucile H. Brockway. Science and Colonial Expansion: The Role of the British
Royal Botanic Gardens
James Lang. Portuguese Brazil: The King's Plantation
Elizabeth Hafkin Pieck. Black Migration and Poverty: Boston 1865-1900
Harvey J. Graff. The Literacy Myth: Literacy and Social Structure in the Nine-
teenth-Century City
Michael Haines. Fertility and Occupation: Population Patterns in Industrial-
ization
The list of titles in this series continues on the last page of this volume
STUDIES IN SOCIAL DISCONTINUITY
(Continued from page ii)
Keith Wrightson and David Levine. Poverty and Piety in an English Village:
Terling, 1525-1700
Henry A. Gemery and Jan S. Hogendorn (Eds.). The Uncommon Market: Essays
in the Economic History of the Atlantic Slave Trade
Tamara Κ. Hareven (Ed.). Transitions: The Family and the Life Course in
Historical Perspective
Randolph Trumbach. The Rise of the Egalitarian Family: Aristocratic Kinship
and Domestic Relations in Eighteenth-Century England
Arthur L. Stinchcombe. Theoretical Methods in Social History
Juan G. Espinosa and Andrew S. Zimbalist. Economic Democracy: Workers' Par-
ticipation in Chilean Industry 1970-1973
Richard Maxwell Brown and Don E. Fehrenbacher (Eds.). Tradition, Conflict,
and Modernization: Perspectives on the American Revolution
Harry W. Pearson. The Livelihood of Man by Karl Polanyi
Frederic L. Pryor. The Origins of the Economy: A Comparative Study of Dis-
tribution in Primitive and Peasant Economies
Charles P. Cell. Revolution at Work: Mobilization Campaigns in China
Dirk Hoerder. Crowd Action in Revolutionary Massachusetts, 1765-1780
David Levine. Family Formations in an Age of Nascent Capitalism
Ronald Demos Lee (Ed.). Population Patterns in the Past
Michael Schwartz. Radical Protest and Social Structure: The Southern Farmers'
Alliance and Cotton Tenancy, 1880-1890
Jane Schneider and Peter Schneider. Culture and Political Economy in Western
Sicily
Daniel Chirot. Social Change in a Peripheral Society: The Creation of a Balkan
Colony
Stanley H. Brandes. Migration, Kinship, and Community: Tradition and Tran-
sition in a Spanish Village
James Lang. Conquest and Commerce: Spain and England in the Americas
Kristian Hvidt. Flight to America: The Social Background of 300,000 Danish
Emigrants
D. Ε. H. Russell. Rebellion, Revolution, and Armed Force: A Comparative Study
of Fifteen Countries with Special Emphasis on Cuba and South Africa
John R. Gillis. Youth and History: Tradition and Change in European Age
Relations 1770-Present
Immanuel Wallerstein. The Modern World-System I: Capitalist Agriculture and
the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century; II:
Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World-Economy, 1600-
1750
John W. Cole and Eric R. Wolf. The Hidden Frontier: Ecology and Ethnicity
in an Alpine Valley
Joel Samaha. Law and Order in Historical Perspective: The Case of Elizabethan
Essex
William A. Christian, Jr. Person and God in a Spanish Valley
Sources and Methods of
Historical Demography
J. DENNIS WILLIGAN KATHERINE A. LYNCH
Department of Sociology Department of History and Philosophy
University of Utah Carnegie-Mellon University
Salt Lake City, Utah Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
ACADEMIC PRESS
A Subsidiary of Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Publishers
NEW YORK LONDON
PARIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SÄO PAULO SYDNEY TOKYO TORONTO
COPYRIGHT © 1982, BY ACADEMIC PRESS, INC.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
NO PART OF THIS PUBLICATION MAY BE REPRODUCED OR
TRANSMITTED IN ANY FORM OR BY ANY MEANS, ELECTRONIC
OR MECHANICAL, INCLUDING PHOTOCOPY, RECORDING, OR ANY
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ACADEMIC PRESS, INC.
Ill Fifth Avenue, New York, New York 10003
United Kingdom Edition published by
ACADEMIC PRESS, INC. (LONDON) LTD.
24/28 Oval Road, London NW1 7DX
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Willigan, J. Dennis
Sources and methods of historical demography.
(Studies in social discontinuity)
Bibliography: p.
Includes index
1. Population—History—methodology. 2. Demography.
I. Lynch, Katherine Α. II. Title. III. Title:
Historical demography. IV. Series.
HB849.4.W54 1982 304.6Ό9 82-8819
ISBN 0-12-757020-9 AACR2
ISBN 0-12-757022-5 (pbk)
PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
82 83 84 85 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Preface
Historical demography is essentially the study of past populations. Its basic goals
are twofold: to reconstruct demographic characteristics of past populations and to ex-
plain the causes and consequences of these characteristics.
Research in historical demography may be thought of as falling along a scale of
increasing analytic breadth. At the scale's narrowest point, research is restricted
solely to the documentation and description of classic demographic characteristics
such as population size, geographical distribution, age structure, and change pro-
duced by births, deaths, and migration. At this end of the scale, demographic features
are analyzed in their own right, with little or no regard for their possible relationships
with nondemographic phenomena or specific historical settings. At the other end of
the scale, the scope of historical demography is broadest. In contrast to the study of
purely demographic phenomena in relative isolation from their temporal and social
contexts, effort would be made to establish and analyze the causal links between a
historical community's formal demographic properties and every important feature
of the world in which its members lived. Obviously, most research lies between these
two extremes.
A major goal of pioneering studies in historical demography since World War II
has been essentially one of reconstruction. Knowledge about population size, settle-
ment patterns, and household and family structures that this reconstructive research
provided and will continue to provide forms the basis for work that attempts to ex-
plain the relationships between demographic phenomena and other facets of human
life. To accomplish this latter goal, genetic, biological, socioeconomic, or other po-
tentially relevant information may have to be drawn upon to understand why a histor-
ical population's demographic properties were as they were, as well as to understand
the consequences these properties had for individuals, groups, and whole societies.
In recent years, historical demography has attracted to its ranks researchers from
nearly every social science discipline. Moreover, work in population genetics, hu-
man biology, and nutrition has been seized upon by scholars who seek to describe
[xi]
[xii] Preface
and understand the demographic evolution of past human societies. Eagerness to in-
corporate findings, methods, and theoretical perspectives from a variety of disci-
plines seems boundless, making a simple description of historical demography diffi-
cult. It is as if the field itself has no firm boundaries but is constantly being enriched
by the participation of researchers with a wide range of perspectives and skills.
That research is taking place simultaneously in a wide variety of seemingly dis-
connected disciplines makes the field appear fragmented. Rather than being a sign of
immaturity or weakness, however, this multidisciplinary and increasingly inter-
disciplinary style of research is responsibile for the intellectual vitality and growth of
historical demography.
Given the heterogeneous nature of historical demography and its growth in recent
years, we believe there is need for a book that brings together diverse strands of re-
search and at the same time expands methodological and theoretical perspectives in
light of the strengths and weaknesses of major available source materials. Sources
and Methods of Historical Demography is thus designed to inform the wide variety of
researchers interested in historical population studies about the fundamental sources,
methods, and approaches to explanatory modeling that appear to us most promising
for describing, analyzing, and understanding demographic features of past societies.
We have set out to accomplish this by drawing on the wealth of interesting research
that has appeared in recent years, particularly since the publication of Louis Henry's
Manuel de démographie historique (1967) and Thomas Hollings worth's Historical
Demography (1969). This book would have been impossible to write without the ba-
sic discussions of sources, empirical case studies, or introductions to methods of data
collection and analysis that have appeared since that time.
The work is divided into five parts. The Introduction is designed to acquaint read-
ers with the intellectual ancestry of historical demographic research, beginning in the
seventeenth century. It is an effort to illuminate the origins of a broad, multifaceted
field of inquiry that exemplified diversity from the start. Part II "Fundamental
Source Materials," describes the most widely used categories of documents, ana-
lyzes some of their relative strengths, weaknesses or biases, and, wherever possible,
offers techniques for adjusting for those biases. The emphasis here is on considera-
tions of general interest to an international audience. In contrast to the approach of
introductory texts on historical demographic sources for individual nations and spe-
cific time periods, we do not dwell at length on nation- and time-specific problems,
since a discussion of these may be found in works cited in the text. Rather, the
discussion is organized to bring out the structural similarities of sources by type.
Broad categories of sources are considered one at a time, and techniques for
integrating and studying information from different types of sources are considered in
the remaining parts of the book. Illustrative material from different regions of the
world is presented to distill the common problems that sources of a similar type may
present.
Part III, "Methods of Population Reconstruction and Analysis of Historical
Sources," offers readers an introduction to the logic of basic techniques for recon-
structing and analyzing information from fundamental source materials. An exhaust-
Preface [xiii]
ive treatment of each method or analytic approach is impossible within the con-
straints of one book. Our hope is that this limited presentation will yield insights into
the relative usefulness of the various techniques discussed and, importantly, stimu-
late readers to acquaint themselves with the fuller treatments cited in each chapter.
The discussion of reconstructive and analytic methods is preparatory to a considera-
tion of formal causal modeling. Whereas methods discussed in Part III help describe
what happened in the past, the formulation of explanatory models may provide plau-
sible answers to the question "Why?" In Part IV, "Causal Model Building and Hy-
pothesis Testing: Major Themes," the full range of disciplines that have made major
contributions to historical demography is tapped, and examples of empirical research
are used to illustrate the argument. Part V, "Conclusion," argues the case for con-
ducting historical demographic research with a broad, interdisciplinary ideal in
mind.
The challenge of writing a book for the wide range of scholars interested in histor-
ical demography is a formidable one. These scholars are generally members of one of
two groups: those whose academic backgrounds are primarily historical and, sec-
ondly, those whose training has been sociological or demographic in nature. Each
group possesses complementary strengths. Historians will be less likely to require
familiarization with historical demographic source materials. Sociologists, on the
other hand, are more likely to be aware of specialized methods of demographic and
social scientific research. The book is written with both audiences in mind.
Most of Parts I, II, and V should be readily intelligible to readers interested in
learning about the origins and development of historical demography, its basic data
sources, and its place in current research on human societies. However, in order to
understand Parts III and IV, the discussion of methods and causal models, readers
should already be familiar with a demography text and have some working knowl-
edge of basic statistical methodology. We take the position not that relatively sophis-
ticated methods are the only way to learn about the demographic characteristics of
past populations but that they can, when used well, reward scholars for the long hours
of data collection by helping them go beyond a descriptive level of understanding to
approach larger theoretical questions. When data are sparse, unreliable, or scattered
in time, the use of sophisticated methods or the construction of formal models may
appear to be unwarranted. But until researchers make a reasonable effort to under-
stand such techniques, they may be unaware of all their data might potentially reveal.
The use of quantitative techniques, which in many cases requires a computer, is at
times blamed for social research that loses sight of the concrete experience of histor-
ical individuals or groups. This is, we believe, a valid concern. Quantitative methods
and causal models often entail abstracting from the day-to-day world. If this is carried
to an extreme where history is viewed only as the interaction of 4 'processes,' ' "struc-
tures," or "variables," our understanding of how demographic behavior has histor-
ically been linked to individuals' own notions and experience of their world would
well become impoverished. The neglect of these latter features, moreover, may make
it impossible to explain or understand demographic patterns. Therefore, it is vital that
historical demographers maintain a sense of curiosity and concern about the living
[xi ν] Preface
conditions and values of the individuals whose demographic experience is the pri-
mary focus of inquiry.
A final word about the limitations of the present work. Sources and Methods of
Historical Demography is not designed to provide an elementary introduction to his-
torical demography; nor does it pretend to discuss exhaustively any source, method,
or approach to causal modeling. It is impossible at the same time both to reflect the
diversity of the field and to treat each of its many facets in exhaustive detail, a limita-
tion that we have sought to overcome by providing readers with extensive references
and recommended readings to supplement the discussion of individual topics. The
book is intended to inform and guide individual researchers in their choice of sources,
methods, or approaches to causal modeling. Having chosen the lines of inquiry they
wish to pursue, readers will have to move beyond the book to the more specialized
and technical literature recommended.
References
Henry, Louis
1967 Manuel de démographie historique. Paris: Droz.
Hollingsworth, Thomas H.
1969 Historical Demography. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
Acknowledgments
The idea for writing a book on the sources and methods of historical demography
was stimulated by John Knodel, who several years ago expressed his view of the need
for a general work that would contribute to the field of historical demographic re-
search beyond the introductory level. We seized upon this idea and, in the course of
writing Sources and Methods of Historical Demography, have benefited from the
help of a number of people.
We particularly want to thank Daniel Scott Smith, Krishnan Namboodiri, and
Charles Tilly for their careful, critical readings and helpful comments on an earlier
draft of the manuscript. Dorit Carmelli read and made comments on a first version of
the population genetics material. Maria Luiza Marcilio, Jean-Pierre Bardet, and Ar-
thur P. Wolf helped us gain access to several of the works discussed in the text. Ray
Wright and Ted Telford, of the Genealogical Society of Utah, provided vital assist-
ance in securing reproductions of source materials that illustrate the book. Linda
Burns, of the University of Utah Library, tracked down a number of the hard-to-find
publications. Finally, we want to thank two friends and colleagues—Lee Bean and
Mark Skolnick—for their support and encouragement of our collaborative work.
After hundreds of hours of discussion, animated debate, and final agreement on
most matters, we have emerged convinced more than ever of the value of inter-
disciplinary collaboration. Having ventured beyond our respective disciplines of so-
ciology and history, we alone are responsible for the use we have made of the rich
variety of scholarship that characterizes our adopted field of historical demography.
[XV]
1
A Genealogy of
Historical Demography
Any genealogy of historical demography is sure to reflect the opinions of the
genealogist at work. In the effort to illuminate significant contributions to the
origins and development of historical demography, many names are bound to be
ignored while the achievements of the best known are overemphasized. Identi-
fying the originators of methodological, empirical, or theoretical breakthroughs
made in historical demographic research is surely as difficult as tracing the
discontinuous evolution of paradigms in the natural sciences, since, as Thomas
Kuhn has argued, "any attempt to date the discovery must inevitably be
arbitrary because discovering a new sort of phenomenon is necessarily a
complex event, one which involves recognizing both that something is and what
it is [1970:55]." However, there is value in retracing historical demographic
work of the past and assessing its relation to more contemporary studies.
Scholars now working in the field will find writers as early as the seventeenth
century attempting to come to grips with some of the same substantive issues as
are currently being debated. A glimpse into the past development of historical
demographic research also reveals the same variety of approaches and concerns
that continue to characterize this interdisciplinary field of inquiry.
The task of tracing the intellectual ancestry of historical demography de-
mands some attempt to define the entity whose lineage is under consideration.
Both Thomas Hollingsworth (1969:37) and Jacques Dupâquier (1974:9) have
pointed to the descriptive aspects of historical demography—the concern to
estimate or reconstruct the size and composition of populations in the past.
Dupâquier argues that the techniques of historical demography "resemble those
used by specialists on the Third World for the study of populations with
incomplete records or suspect statistics."
However, historical demography as a field of research seeks to go beyond the
description of populations of the past, a sheer estimation of size, quality, and
change, to a discovery of the processes instrumental in forming, maintaining, or
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