Table Of ContentSOCIETAL RISK ASSESSMENT
How Safe is Safe Enough?
PUBLISHED SYMPOSIA
Held at
General Motors Research Laboratorfes
Warren, Michigan
1979 R. C. Schwing, W. A. Albers, Jr., eds., Societal risk assessment: How safe is safe enough?
Plenum Press, New York, 1980.
1978 J. N. Mattavi, C. A. Amann, eds., Combustion modeling in reciprocating engines, Plenum Press,
New York, 1980.
1978 G. G. Dodd, L. Rossol, eds., Computervision and sensor-based robats, Plenum Press, New
York, 1979.
1977 D. P. Koistinen, N. -M. Wang, eds., Mechanics ojsheet meta/forming: Material behavior and
deformation analysis, Plenum Press, New York, 1978.
1976 G. Sovran, T. A. More!, W. T. Mason, eds., Aerodynamic drag mechanisms ofbl&iffbodies and
road vehicles, Plenum Press, New York, 1978.
1975 J. M. Colucci, N. E. Gallopoulos, eds., Future automotivefuels: Prospects, performance, perspec
tive, Plenum Press, New York, 1977.
1974 R. L. Klimisch, J. G. Larson, eds., The catalytic chemistry ofn itrogen oxides, Plenum Press, New
York, 1975.
1973 D. F. Hays, A. L. Browne, eds., The physics oftire traction, Plenum Press, New York, 1974.
1972 W. F. King, H. J. Mertz, eds., Humanimpact response, Plenum Press, New York, 1973.
1971 W. Cornelius, W. G. Agnew, eds., Emissions from continuous combustion systems, Plenum
Press, New York, 1972.
1970 W. A. Albers, ed., The physics of opto-electronic materials, Plenum Press, New York, 1971.
1969 C. S. Tuesday, ed., Chemical reactions in urban atmospheres, American Elsevier, New York,
1971.
1968 E. L. Jacks, ed., Associative iflformation techniques, American Elsevier, New York, 1971.
1967 P. Weiss, G. D. Cheever, eds., Interface conversionfor polymer coatings, American Elsevier,
New York, 1968.
1966 E. F. Weller, ed., Ferroelectricity, Elsevier, New York, 1967.
1965 G. Sovran, ed., Fluid mechanics of internalflow, Elsevier, New York, 1967.
1964 H. L. Garabedian, ed., Approximation offunctions, Elsevier, New York, 1965.
1963 T. J. Hughel, ed., Liquids: Structure, properties, solid interactions, Elsevier, New York, 1965.
1962 R. Davies, ed., Cavitation in realliquids, Elsevier, New York, 1964.
1961 P. Weiss, ed., Adhesion and cohesion, Elsevier, New York, 1962.
1960 J. 8. Bidwell, ed., Rolling contact phenomena, Elsevier, ~ew York, 1962.
1959 R. C. Herman, ed., Theory oftrafflcflow, Elsevier, New York, 1961.
1958 G. M. Rassweiler, W. L. Grube, eds., Interna/ Stresses andfatigue in meta/, Elsevier, New York,
1959.
1957 R. Davies, ed., Friction and wear, Elsevier, New York, 1959.
SOCIET AL RISK ASSESSMENT
How Safe is Safe Enough?
Edited by
RICHARD C. SCHWING and WALTER A. ALBERS, Jr.
General Motors Research Laboratories
SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, LLC 1980
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Societal risk assessment.
Proceedings of an international symposium held Oct. 8-9, 1979 at the General
Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Mich. and sponsored by the Laboratories.
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
1. Technology assessment - Congresses. 2. Risk - Congresses. I. Schwing,
Richard C. II. Albers, Walter A. 111. General Motors Corporation. Research
Laboratories.
T174.5.S6 363.1 80-23833
ISBN 978-1-4899-0447-8 ISBN 978-1-4899-0445-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4899-0445-4
Proceedings of the General Motors Symposium on Societal Risk Assessment,
held in Warren, Michigan, October 7-9, 1979.
© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1980
Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1980
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1980
All righ ts reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted,
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming,
recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher
V
PREFACE
This volume constitutes the papers and discussions from a symposium on
"Societal Risk Assessment: How Safe is Safe Enough?" held at the General
Motors Research Laboratories on October 8-9, 1979. This symposium was the
twenty-fourth in an annual series sponsored by the Research Laboratories. Initi
ated in 1957, these symposia have as their objective the promotion of the
interchange ofknowledge among specialists from many allied disciplines in rapidly
developing or changing areas ofscience or technology. Attendees characteristically
represent the academic, government, and industrial institutions that are noted for
their ongoing activities in the particular area of interest.
The objective of this symposium was to develop a balanced view of the current
status of societal risk assessment's role in the public policy process and then to
establish, if possible, future directions of research. Accordingly, the symposium
was structured in two dimensions; certainty versus uncertainty and the subjective
versus the objective. Furthermore, people representing extremely diverse discip
lines concerned with the perception, quantification, and abatement of risks were
brought together to provide an environment that stimulated the exchange of ideas
and experiences. The keys to this exchange were the invited papers, arranged into
four symposium sessions. These papers appear in this volume in the order of their
presentation. The discussions that in turn followed from the papers are also
included. It is our hope that the issues and ideas presented in this volume will
serve to identify the needs for further development of useful societal risk assess
ment and to clarify the role that risk assessment can play in the public policy pro
cess.
Many people played an important role in the planning, executing, and hosting of
the symposium as well as in the preparation of this volume, and we wish to
vi PREFACE
acknowledge our gratitude. An advisory group consisting of Dr. Lester B. Lave
(Brookings Institution), Professor Howard Raiffa (Harvard), and Dr. Paul Slovic
(Decision Research) were instrumental in organizing the program in addition to
W. A. Albers, Jr.
their active participation as either speakers or session chairmen. Dr. Chauncey
Starr (Electric Power Research Institute), Dr. Allen Kneese (Resources for the
Future), and Professor William D. Rowe (The American University) served
admirably as session chairmen. The encouragement, guidance, and advice of Mr.
John D. Caplan and Dr. Nils L. Muench, both of the General Motors Research
Laboratories, was invaluable. Among many other colleagues at the General
Motors Research Laboratories who have been of assistance, we should like to
especially thank R. Thomas Beaman, Linda E. Meyer, and David N. Havelock for
the symposium arrangements, secretarial needs, and manuscript Iayout and art
work, respectively. And finally, each of the authors was most cooperative and
responsive in putting together papers that were requested and supplying
manuscripts for publication.
Richard C. Schwing and Walter A. Albers, Jr.
vii
CONTENTS
Preface............................................................... v
SESSION 1: The Risks We Run and The Risks We "Accept"
Chairman: Chauncey Starr,
Electric Power Research Institute. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The Nature of Risk
William W. Lowrance, Stanford University . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
The Uncertain Risks We Run: Hazardous Materials
Marvin A. Schneiderman, National Cancer Institute..................... 19
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 7
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 8
The Known Risks We Run: The Highway
Barbara E. Sabey and Harold Taylor,
Transport and Road Research Laboratory............................... 43
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Perceptions of Risk and Their Effects on Decision Making
Raphael G. Kasper, National Academy of Seiences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
viii CONTENTS
SESSION II: "Acceptability" with Fixed Resources
Chairman: Allen Kneese, Resources for the Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
On Making Life and Death Decisions
Ronald A. Howard, Stanford University . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 6
Economic Tools for Risk Reduction
Lester B. Lave, Brookings Institution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Discussion........................................................ 124
Trade-offs
Richard C. Schwing, General Motors Research Laboratories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Discussion........................................................ 142
Risk Spreading through Underwriting and the
lnsurance Institution
J. D. Hammond, Pennsylvania State University......................... 147
References........................................................ 175
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 6
SESSION III: "Acceptability" in a Democracy- Who Shall Decide?
Chairman: William D. Rowe, The American University... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Facts and Fears: Understandins Perceived Risk
Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff and Sarah Lichtenstein,
Decision Research, A Branch of Perceptronics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
Discussion........................................................ 214
Ethics, Economics and the Value of Safety
William D. Schulze, University ofWyoming ............................ 217
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
Problems and Procedures in the Regulation of
Technological Risk
Dorothy Nelkin and Michael Pollack, Cornell University. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 7
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
CONTENTS ix
The Role of Law in Determining Acceptability of Risk
Harold P. Green, George Washington University........................ 255
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
SESSION IV: Directions and Perspectives of Societal Risk Assessment
Chairman: Howard Raiffa, Harvard University .......................... 271
Aesthetics of Risk: Culture or Context
Michael Thompson, Institute for Policy and Management Research . . . . . . . 273
Witches, Floods, and Wonder Drugs:
Historical Perspectives on Risk Management
William C. Clark, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Prospects for Change
Melvin Kranzberg, Georgia Institute of Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
References........................................................ 332
Miscellaneous Discussion. . .. . .. . .. . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . .. . .. . . . 333
Concluding Remarks
H. Raiffa, Harvard University . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339
Symposium Summary
The Safety Profession's Image of Humanity
C. W. Churchman, University of California............................. 343
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346
Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 7
Proper Name Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
Subject Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
