Slippery math in public affairs: price tag and defense

263 Pages·2002·1.34 MB·English

by  William J. Adams

Slippery Math in
Public Affairs
Price Tag and Defense
William J. Adams
Pace University
New York,New York
with illustrations by
.
Ramune B. Adams
Marcel Dekker, Inc. New York Basel
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Preface
Plato believed that knowledge of mathematics is a prerequisite for good
citizenship.Inourageitwouldbeappropriatetoconsiderknowledgeof
howslipperymathentersthepublic arenaandwhatwecandotoavoid
being‘‘taken’’tobeaprerequisiteforeffectiveparticipationinpublicaf-
fairs.
Inbrief,thisbookaddressesthispost-Platostateofaffairs.Indoing
so, it presupposes no specialized knowledge of mathematics on the part
of the reader, just interest in how mathematics may deceive us, the cost,
and what we can do about it.
Slipperymathinpublicaffairs?Atfirstthethoughtmightstrikeone
as an oxymoron. After all, many of us would submit that in terms of
precision, mathematics is as good as it gets. We acquire such a view of
mathematics at an early age and it stays with us, although with further
education and life experience we come to realize that math is not quite
all that it’s cracked up to be. In a sense math is like a respectable public
figure whom we are drawn to because he projects strength, objectivity,
andlogicalpower,butwhomwealsosensehasashadowysidewecan’t
quite pinpoint.
Our degree of vulnerability to being seduced by the Svengali-like
presence of mathematics depends on the faith and trust we have in its
power, balanced by our sense of caution and doubt. Alas, the hypnotic
power of mathematics far too often scores a complete triumph. This
was brought home to me by the reaction of a student to an argument I
had presented concerning a dean who had been told that his work was
counterproductive. The argument purported to show, by ‘‘mathematical
v
vi Preface
proof,’’thatthedeandidnoworkatall,andthusthatthechargehadno
basis.ThepointIwasattemptingtomakewasthat‘‘mathematicalproof’’
couldgenerate nonsenseand that if itdid soone wouldbewell advised
to take a close look at the mathematical proof and its starting point. My
studentLaurawouldhavenoneofit;Ihad‘‘proved’’theresultbymathe-
maticalreasoningandthatwasthat;caseclosed.It’senoughtomakeone
want to laugh and cry at the same time. Although Laura might seem an
extreme case, the fact is that we all have a bit of Laura in us.
The following questions warrant consideration:
1. What is slippery math and how does it arise?
2. Whathavebeentheconsequencesofslipperymathinthepublic
arena?
3. How is math employed to sell a point of view to the public?
4. Withbillionsofdollarsandendlesstalkgivenovertoimproving
mathematics education, how could it happen that math can be
employed to mislead most of the people most of the time?
5. Whatreformsinmathematicseducationareneededtohelppre-
pare future generations to participate effectively in a society
inwhichmathematicsisincreasinglybeingemployedandmis-
employed in the public arena?
6. Whatcanwedotomakeourselveslessvulnerabletobeingma-
nipulated by slippery math?
7. What can we do to help policy decision making reflect more
reliable and well-chosen numbers and math models?
The setting for addressing these questions is established in Parts 1
through 4. We return to them in the Epilogue. Part 1 (Chapters 1–7) ad-
dresses the ways in which slippery numbers emerge in the public arena
and what steps we can take to make ourselves less vulnerable to being
mathmanipulated.Part2(Chapters8–13)isconcernedwiththedevelop-
mentofmathportraits,calledmathmodels,forreal-worldsituations,how
they can be mathematically precise and yet present a false picture, the
spin doctor’s bag of tools to sell math portraits to the public, and what
we can do to minimize the danger of being sold math snake oil. Part 3
(Chapters14–15)discussesthecostofslipperymathintermsofresources,
life, and opportunities.Part 4 (Chapter 16) looksat how math education
can be reformed to sharpen our perspective on what mathematics can
and cannot do for us in its applications, and options available to us for
putting together a self-study program.
Preface vii
I should like to express my appreciation to my daughter Ramune˙
for her illustrations, and to my daughter Rasa, Ursula Shand, Danielle
Ortiz, and Eliana Cifuentes for their assistance in preparing the manu-
script.IalsoshouldliketoexpressmyappreciationtothePaceUniversity
community for their support of this undertaking.
William J. Adams

Contents
Preface v
PART ONE SLIPPERY NUMBERS IN THE PUBLIC ARENA 1
Introduction 2
1 Boldfaced Lies 4
The Homeless Homeless Figure 5
Indefensible Defense Figures 5
Blowing Smoke on Secondary Smoke 6
Shenanigans in Science 7
The Drug Testing Balloon That Popped 8
2 Something’s Amiss 10
It Sounds Good, But . . . 11
Accounting Alchemy: From Lead to Gold 12
Get It ‘‘Right’’ This Time 14
Conflicts of Interest 15
Wounded Military Figures 19
A Question of ‘‘Accuracy’’ 21
ix