Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence

264 Pages·2002·3.06 MB·English

by  Abram N. Shulsky

Silent
Warfare
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Silent
Warfare
UNDERSTANDING
THE WORLD
OF INTELLIGENCE
ABRAM N. SHULSKY
GARY J. SCHMITT
THIRD EDITION
Potomac Books, Inc.
Washington, D.C.
Copyright © 2002 by Potomac Books, Inc.
Published in the United States by Potomac Books, Inc. All rights reserved. No part
of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written
permission from the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations
embodied in critical articles and reviews.
First edition published 1991. Second edition published 1993.
Third edition 2002.
Excerpts from Strategic Intelligence far American World Policy by Sherman
Kent. Copyright 1949 by Princeton University Press. Copyright © renewed
1976 by Princeton University Press. Reprinted with permission of Princeton
University Press.
Excerpts from Secrecy and Democracy: The CIA in Transition by Adm.
Stansfield Turner. Copyright © 1985 by Stansfield Turner. Reprinted by
permission of Houghton Mifflin Company.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Shulsky, Abram N.
Silent warfare : understanding the world of intelligence /Abram N.
Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt.—3rd ed., rev.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index.
ISBN 1-57488-345-3 (pbk.)
1. Intelligence service. 2. Intelligence service—United States. I.
Schmitt, Gary James, 1952- II. Title.
JF1525.I6S492002
327.12—dc21 2002001312
ISBN 978-1-57488-345-9 (alk. paper)
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper that meets the
American National Standards Institute Z39-48 Standard.
Potomac Books, Inc.
22841 Quicksilver Drive
Dulles, Virginia 20166
Third Edition
109876
Contents
Preface vii
Notice to the Reader ix
Introduction: Writing about Secrets xi
1 WHAT IS INTELLIGENCE? 1
The Scope of Intelligence 3
Intelligence and the Information Age 7
The Elements of Intelligence 8
2 SPIES,MACHINES,AND LIBRARIES: COLLECTING
THE DATA 11
Human Intelligence Collection 11
Technical Intelligence Collection 22
Comparison of Humint and Techint 33
Open-Source Collection 37
3 WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
AND PRODUCTION 41
What Is Analysis? 41
The Intelligence Product 57
Intelligence Failure and Surprise 62
4 WORKING BEHIND THE SCENES: COVERT ACTION 75
What Is Covert Action? 75
Types and Examples of Covert Action 77
Covert Action and Secrecy 91
Covert Action and Intelligence 95
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vi Contents
5 SPY VERSUS SPY: COUNTERINTELLIGENCE 99
The Classification of Information 99
Security 105
Counterespionage 108
Multidisciplinary Counterintelligence (MDCI) 114
Deception and Counterdeception 116
Counterintelligence Analysis 126
6 GUARDING THE GUARDIANS: THE MANAGEMENT
OF INTELLIGENCE 129
Secrecy and Control 129
Expertise and Policy 133
Intelligence and the “Information Age” 141
Intelligence and Democracy 144
7 TWO VIEWS OF INTELLIGENCE 159
Historical Development of the American View 160
Intelligence and Moral Issues 167
8 TOWARD A THEORY OF INTELLIGENCE 169
Notes 177
Index 237
About the Authors 247
Preface
Silent Warfare has its origin in a course on intelligence that I taught in 1985
as a visiting professor at the University of Chicago’s John M. Olin Center for
Inquiry into the Theory and Practice of Democracy. Returning to the academic
world and the classroom forced me to impose some order on my thoughts con-
cerning intelligence, a subject with which I had become familiar by virtue of
my career in Washington. The book was first published in 1991. Soon after,
however, the enactment of new laws on intelligence both in the United States
and abroad, the publication of a number of significant new volumes on intel-
ligence, and the demise of the Soviet Union combined to recommend prepara-
tion of a revised edition of Silent Warfare. But by this time I had already
returned to work in the government as an official in the Department of
Defense and was unable to devote the time necessary to complete a revision.
At this point, I asked Gary Schmitt, my successor as minority staff director
of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and former executive director
of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, to take up the task of
revising the book. The second edition appeared in 1993.
Since then, the body of literature and resources dedicated to the topic of
intelligence has continued to swell. In addition, there has been a slow but
steady expansion of laws around the globe designed to regulate intelligence
activities and to square those activities in some way with the norms of open and
democratic government. But perhaps the greatest change since the publication
of the first two editions of Silent Warfarehas been the advent of the “informa-
tion revolution,” a revolution precipitated by the tremendous progress made in
the processing and communication of information. How this change in the
availability and distribution of information might affect intelligence—a gov-
ernment activity whose principal function is the collection, protection, and dis-
tribution of information—is a question of which this third edition attempts to
take account as well.
AlthoughSilent Warfarehas been revised and updated twice now, the the-
sis, structure and much of the underlying content of the book remain the same.
Silent Warfare was never intended to be an account of a particular country’s
intelligence activities in a particular period in history. While many of the
examples found in the book are drawn from the British and American intelli-
gence experiences, they are generally employed to make broader points about
basic concepts and issues involved in the practice of intelligence. The passing
of the Cold War, the emergence of a new strategic era, and the rise of the
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viii Preface
“information age” will, of course, change intelligence practices and require-
ments to some degree. However, a key thesis of Silent Warfare is that intelli-
gence is inherently connected to the competition among nations and that
absent something akin to Kant’s state of “perpetual peace,” intelligence will,
like diplomacy and military force, remain a regular tool of statecraft. Accord-
ingly, there still is a need for the citizen and serious student alike to understand
the basic elements of intelligence, their interactions, and the tensions and rela-
tionships between these secret activities and the democratic government and
society they are intended to serve.
Work on this and earlier editions has benefited in the past from the assis-
tance, comments, and advice of many students, friends, and colleagues. Eliot
A. Cohen, Kenneth E. deGraffenreid, Hillel G. Fradkin, Sam Halperin, Sheila
Kerr, Carnes R. Lord, Kenneth G. Robertson, and Diane S. Roark deserve spe-
cial thanks. The book’s first edition was written while I served as a senior fel-
low at the National Strategy Information Office and was supported by grants
from the John M. Olin Foundation and the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foun-
dation. The second edition was revised by Gary, who was also a senior fellow
at NSIC. To Roy Godson, NSIC’s president, and Jeffrey Berman, NSIC’s exec-
utive director, our thanks for their support and friendship over the years.
Abram N. Shulsky
Washington, D.C.
Notice to the Reader
No attempt has been made to revise this text in light of the terrorist attacks of
September 11, 2001, which occurred as this book was being prepared for
press. Indeed, it will be a long time before the full implications of the events
of that day become manifest. Nevertheless, it is clear that intense attention will
be focused on the problem of bolstering human intelligence-collection capa-
bilities to deal with the very difficult terrorist target; in particular, there will
have to be an increased emphasis on “nonofficial” cover for intelligence offi-
cers. In addition, one can expect renewed scrutiny of various regulations con-
cerning domestic surveillance; in addition to specific questions concerning
wiretapping and other surveillance techniques, a fundamental question will
have to be addressed again—whether groups and individuals may be subjected
to surveillance on the basis of the political positions and associations, in the
absence of a clear connection to a specific criminal act.
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