Table Of ContentSpringerBriefs in Population Studies
Population Studies of Japan
Fumie Kumagai
Shrinking Japan and
Regional Variations:
Along the Tokaido
SpringerBriefs in Population Studies
Population Studies of Japan
Editor-in-Chief
Toshihiko Hara, Professor Emeritus, Sapporo City University, Sapporo, Hokkaido,
Japan
Series Editors
Shinji Anzo, Tokyo, Japan
Hisakazu Kato, Tokyo, Japan
Noriko Tsuya, Tokyo, Japan
Toru Suzuki, Chiba, Japan
Kohei Wada, Tokyo, Japan
Hisashi Inaba, Tokyo, Japan
Minato Nakazawa, Kobe, Japan
Jim Raymo, New Jersey, USA
Ryuichi Kaneko, Tokyo, Japan
Satomi Kurosu, Chiba, Japan
Reiko Hayashi, Tokyo, Japan
Hiroshi Kojima, Tokyo, Japan
Takashi Inoue, Tokyo, Japan
The world population is expected to expand by 39.4% to 9.6 billion in 2060 (UN
World Population Prospects, revised 2010). Meanwhile, Japan is expected to see
its population contract by nearly one third to 86.7 million, and its proportion of
the elderly (65 years of age and over) will account for no less than 39.9% (National
Institute of Population and Social Security Research in Japan, Population Projections
for Japan 2012). Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional phase and will
be the fastest-shrinking country in the world, followed by former Eastern bloc nations,
leading other Asian countries that are experiencing drastic changes.
A declining population that is rapidly aging impacts a country’s economic growth,
labor market, pensions, taxation, health care, and housing. The social structure and
geographical distribution in the country will drastically change, and short-term as
well as long-term solutions for economic and social consequences of this trend will
be required.
This series aims to draw attention to Japan’s entering the post-demographic tran-
sition phase and to present cutting-edge research in Japanese population studies. It
will include compact monographs under the editorial supervision of the Population
Association of Japan (PAJ).
The PAJ was established in 1948 and organizes researchers with a wide range of
interests in population studies of Japan. The major fields are (1) population structure
and aging; (2) migration, urbanization, and distribution; (3) fertility; (4) mortality and
morbidity; (5) nuptiality, family, and households; (6) labor force and unemployment;
(7) population projection and population policy (including family planning); and (8)
historical demography. Since 1978, the PAJ has been publishing the academic journal
Jinkogaku Kenkyu (The Journal of Population Studies), in which most of the articles
are written in Japanese.
Thus, the scope of this series spans the entire field of population issues in Japan,
impacts on socioeconomic change, and implications for policy measures. It includes
population aging, fertility and family formation, household structures, population
health, mortality, human geography and regional population, and comparative studies
with other countries.
This series will be of great interest to a wide range of researchers in other coun-
tries confronting a post-demographic transition stage, demographers, population
geographers, sociologists, economists, political scientists, health researchers, and
practitioners across a broad spectrum of social sciences.
Fumie Kumagai
Shrinking Japan
and Regional Variations:
Along the Tokaido
Fumie Kumagai
Kyorin University
Mitaka, Tokyo, Japan
ISSN 2211-3215 ISSN 2211-3223 (electronic)
SpringerBriefs in Population Studies
ISSN 2198-2724 ISSN 2198-2732 (electronic)
Population Studies of Japan
ISBN 978-981-19-9608-5 ISBN 978-981-19-9609-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9609-2
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Preface
The regional variations in population of my native country, Japan, have fascinated
me for over 40 years. I grew up in the suburbs of Tokyo, and as such my perspective
of Japan was originally derived from my experiences of the capital city. However,
my realization of the importance of analyzing regional variations was sparked by
15 years in the United States, living in nine different states as a graduate student,
college professor, and sociology researcher. I saw that the United States is diverse
in its population and socio-cultural outlook, even within the same state. Whether we
consider Upstate and Downstate New York, or the contrasts between San Francisco
and Los Angeles, the diverse nature within different cities and states is apparent. I
transferred this perspective to my own country of Japan and saw the same variations.
Although a tiny island nation, much smaller than the State of California, Japan is
a long and thin country, extending from the northern tip of the city of Wakkanai,
located at about the same latitude as that of the United States–Canada border, to the
islands of Okinawa, roughly equal to the southern tip of Florida.
After my time in the United States, I lived in rural Niigata for three years from
1984–87 in the town of Yamato in Minami-Uonuma County, Niigata Prefecture
(the municipality now known as the city of Minami-Uonuma). I was a professor of
sociology at the Graduate School of International Relations, International University
of Japan. It was the first time I lived outside Tokyo, and Yamato-machi displayed
different scenes from what I knew about Japan. It was indeed the snow country,
“Coming out of the long tunnel I saw snow country,” as Yasunari Kawabata wrote at
the beginning of his novel, Yukiguni (The Snow Country)—Kawabata was the first
Japanese writer to win the Nobel Prize for Literature. My experiences in Yamato
strengthened my knowledge of diversity in Japan. Niigata Prefecture is divided not
only by the ancient Echigo Province and Sado Province, but also by Jyoetsu, Chuetsu,
and Kaetsu within Echigo Province, and there exist clear regional variations from
one area to the other even within Niigata Prefecture.
By that time, I strongly believed that a full analysis of the Japanese population
should not be limited to “average” figures but should highlight regional variations.
For this reason, I started to discuss families and demography in Japan in such areas as
fertility decline and population aging, household structures, marriage, and divorce,
v
vi Preface
with special attention to regional variations. However, while I lived in Yamato-machi,
Niigata Prefecture, my analysis was mostly confined to the prefecture level, as the
open small area data at municipal level was unavailable.
Population discussion at the time was focused on ken-min-sei (prefectural stereo-
types or preconceived notions about prefectures) without paying attention to regional
variations within the same prefecture. In many parts of Japan, however, there are
cases where the temperament and lifestyle customs vary significantly within the
same prefecture. I began to consider the possibility of a richer and more represen-
tative municipal level of analysis. The focus on municipalities was derived from the
fact that the current 47 prefectures in Japan are essentially based on the Bakuhan-
taisei (feudal system of the shogunate and domains of the Edo period) comprised
of 302 Han dynasties. Furthermore, it comes from the ancient system of Japanese
Goki-Shichido (Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits of Ancient Japan) under
the Ritsuryo system that dates back to the Nara period (the years from 710 to 794).
Because of the variety of historical backgrounds, there are cases among the present
prefectures where the history, ethos, climate, humanity, customs, lifestyle, dialect,
and temperament are totally different. By considering a smaller level analysis, we
can identify many cases where characteristics vary between areas within the same
prefecture.
Therefore, I developed a strong desire to conduct analyses on population decline
based on data by municipality. Fortunately, I had access to statistical software such
as G-Census and EvaCva. This gave me the opportunity to analyze the small area
statistical open data compiled by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal
Affairs and Communications. I decided to examine Japan’s depopulating society from
the standpoint of the regional power of municipalities. Similar to the last two books
in this series, a central element of Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along
the Tokaido is the discussion of the regional variations within the same prefecture of
the Goki-Shichido and provinces.
This book builds on the three unique characteristics of the previous two volumes.
First, there is an original theoretical framework. In other words, cultural and munic-
ipal characteristics have been incorporated into demographic analysis. In the case
of Japan, historical factors are an essential part of the explanation around the
distinct characters of different municipalities, and hence different “municipal power.”
Second, the methodology is relatively creative, particularly using small area data—
i.e., various socio-demographic data of municipal level—to capture information at
individual municipal level. This level of analysis should act as a magnet to attract
more interest among scholars to utilize open data in their research. Third, Japan
provides an example for other nations facing the same problem of a declining popu-
lation and invites them to consider their regional characteristics that could kickstart
revitalization. For example, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and later China, will
face the same problems of population aging and regional shrinkage. Thus, I am confi-
dent that Japan’s experience will be useful and provide comparative knowledge as
discussed in this book. Further volumes will analyze other prefectures with regional
variations.
Preface vii
This volume is the part of my ambition to improve the understanding of the true
state of shrinking Japan among the global community. Historically, there has been
a reluctance among the Japanese people to highlight this issue, probably in part
due to the lack of realization among the Japanese themselves of the existence and
importance of these regional variations. My hope, therefore, is to play my part in
letting the world know the true state of shrinking Japan from the municipal power
perspective and stimulate action as a result.
Sincere acknowledgment is extended to various individuals and institutions.
Without their cooperation and support, I could not have accomplished this project. I
do not have space to name everyone who has helped me on this book’s journey, but
I would like to take the opportunity to highlight some individuals. I would like to
express my heartfelt gratitude to Professor Toshihiko Hara, a renowned scholar of
demography, and the Editor-in-Chief of the Springer Briefs in Population Studies:
Population Studies of Japan, who guided and encouraged me to pursue this project
by providing me with various references, advice, and critical reviewed comments on
the earlier version of this manuscript. I would also express my sincere appreciation
for the provision of various statistical data and guidance to Dr. Shiro Koike, Director,
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research who is the authority
on Regional Population Projection studies. Their constructive criticism has been
instrumental in the final version of this book. Ms. Ayako Asano, at the Information
Center of Kyorin University has patiently assisted me and kindly provided me with
information on various aspects of ICT-related matters. Mr. Yutaka Hirachi, Senior
Editor of Springer Nature Japan, was extraordinarily supportive in encouraging me
to pursue writing this manuscript and providing me with valuable instructions all
the way. Ms. Kavitha Palanisamy, Project Coordinator, and Ms. Nandakini Lahiri,
Project Manager of Books Production, were very resourceful and meticulous during
the entire production process of this project. Last but not least, I would like to
express my hearty appreciation to Ms. Sarah Banks for her copy-editing work of
this manuscript. To a non-native speaker, writing an academic book manuscript in
English requires total dedication and many sacrifices. I am fortunate, however, that
Sarah has agreed to assist me in editing and rewriting to bring the manuscript into a
publishable form. The support and encouragement of these and many other people
have enabled me to share my research findings with you.
Fumie Kumagai
Professor Emeritus
Kyorin University
Tokyo, Japan
[email protected]
Prologue
The third volume of Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations by the current author,
focuses along the Tokaido under the Goki-Shichido. Chapter 1 introduces the new
model for the study of shrinking Japan, incorporating the impact of the “Coronavirus
Pandemic” and the “2025 Problem in Demography.” The Tokaido in ancient times
had two meanings. One is the Tokaido as a road/circuit, and the other is the Tokaido as
one of the regional administrative divisions of the Goki-Shichido. Along the ancient
Tokaido, altogether 15 provinces were included: Iga, Ise, Shima, Owari, Mikawa,
Tootoumi, Suruga, Izu, Kai, Sagami, Musashi, Kazusa, Shimousa, Awa, and Hitachi.
The Tokaido was an important circuit for east–west transportation throughout ancient
and medieval times. When TOKUGAWA Ieyasu won the Battle of Sekigahara (1600),
he began to reorganize roads nationwide in order to establish a strong baku-han
system. This is because the development of a road network centered on Edo (today’s
Tokyo), the capital, was indispensable for strengthening national control. Of partic-
ular importance were the five highways (Go-kaido): Tokaido, Nikko Kaido, Oshu
Kaido, Nakasendo, and Koshu Kaido, which connected Edo and other parts of the
country. During the Edo period, there were about 260 daimyo throughout Japan ruling
each clan. They had to fulfill the duty of Sankin Kotai (the alternate attendance), which
gave the daimyos a heavy financial burden. On the other hand, however, the system
of alternate attendance contributed to improving the main roads nationwide, devel-
oping post stations, and spreading culture and information widely. Among the main
roads developed, the Tokaido was used by the daimyo of Tokai, Kinki, and western
Japan for the alternate attendance, and was the most frequently used road by the
daimyo procession. There were as many as 71,314 municipalities at the time of the
Meiji Restoration. Since then, Japan has undergone three major waves of municipal
consolidation, the Great Merger of Meiji, the Great Showa Consolidation, and the
Great Merger of Heisei. Consequently, the number of municipalities was dramat-
ically reduced to 1,724, as of October 26, 2020, and each of these municipalities
maintains its own history, culture, and tradition. For the in-depth study of along the
Tokaido, Shizuoka and Mie prefectures have been selected.
Chapter 2 studies Shizuoka Prefecture, made up of the formerly named Tootoumi,
Suruga, and Izu provinces. According to the 2020 national census, the population of
ix
x Prologue
Shizuoka prefecture was 3,633,202, a decrease of 67,103 (-1.8%) from the previous
national census in 2015. It is the 10th largest, accounting for 2.9% of Japan’s total
population (126,146,099). The prefecture is divided into four regions (Seibu, Chubu,
Tobu, and Kamo), and comprises 35 municipalities today. Looking at the projected
population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 at prefecture level, Shizuoka Prefecture
is about the middle of the total 47 prefectures (-20.5% against the national average of
-16.3%). However, when we analyzed it by municipality, we found a wide range of
variations within the prefecture (from the highest of Nagaizumi-cho of Tobu region:-
3.0%, to the lowest of Nishi Izu-cho of Kamo region:-65.4%). During the coronavirus
pandemic, municipalities in Shizuoka Prefecture seemed to attract outmigrants from
Tokyo’s metropolitan areas, most likely due to changes in the work style, availability
of highly developed transportation facilities, and people’s preference for living in
the countryside. For detailed analyses of the municipal power, we selected three
municipalities: Nishi Izu-cho, a community with a shrinking population, Yoshida-
cho whose population increase rate is about the average of all 35 municipalities in
Shizuoka Prefecture, and Nagaizumi-cho, which represents a population-increasing
municipality.
Chapter 3 investigates present-day Mie Prefecture made up of Iga, Ise, Shima,
and the southern part of Kii provinces; all are in the kingoku (near to the central
five provinces). Today Mie Prefecture comprises 29 municipalities, divided into five
areas: Hokusei, Chusei, Ise-Shima, Iga, and Higashikishu. Analyses reveal that in the
Hokusei and Chusei areas the population increase rate seems to be high, while for the
Ise-Shima and Higashikishu areas an acute population decline has been in progress.
Looking at the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 by prefecture
level, Mie Prefecture ranks 20th of all the 47 prefectures (−21.2% against the national
average of −16.3%). However, having analyzed it by municipality, we find a wide
range of variations within the prefecture (from the highest of Asahi-cho: +23.5%, to
the lowest of Minamiise-cho: −69.6%). The municipal power of Asahi-cho fits into
the traditional models and key factors for community revitalization programs and
services. The population-devastating municipality of Minamiise-cho, on the other
hand, boasts its municipal powers as fisheries industry, and locally produced marine
products. As a characteristic initiative of Minamiise-cho two projects should be noted.
They are a regional trading company established by the town, Minamiise Shokai, and
Minami Ise High School’s SBP (Social Business Project). Both of these projects take
advantage of the local specialties of marine products as the municipal power, which
local people had not paid attention to for a long time as they have taken them for
granted. In other words, the municipal power of Minamiise-cho does indeed exists
in the very community in which the people live. All that is important is to realize
the municipal power they already have, and to make the best use of it. Nevertheless,
three aspects of unresolved issues of Minamiise-cho are also discussed.
Chapter 4 examines the population concentration in Japan. By now, we know
that there exist wide regional variations in shrinking Japan. Throughout the current
book we learned that the ancient Tokaido was and is the essential circuit in Japan
where the population concentration occurs, especially in three metropolitan areas
of Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka. Among these three metropolitan areas, the Tokyo
