short-range actuarial projections of the old-age, survivors, and disability insurance program, 2005

316 Pages·2005·1.7 MB·English

S -R A P
HORT ANGE CTUARIAL ROJECTIONS
O -A , S ,
OF THE LD GE URVIVORS AND
D I P , 2005
ISABILITY NSURANCE ROGRAM
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO.119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker
Social Security Administration
Office of the Chief Actuary
August 2005
SSA Pub. No. 11-11550
.
FOREWORD
Actuarial Study No.119 describes the assumptions and methodology used to estimate the future short-range financial operations of
the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program as presented in the 2005 OASDI Trustees Report. As has been custom-
ary for all recent reports, the “short-range” projection period is defined as the 10-year period beginning with the current year. This
study is the fifth in a series to describe in detail the development of the short-range estimates (previous such reports appeared in
Actuarial Study No. 103 (January 1989), Actuarial Study No. 104 (October 1991), Actuarial Study No. 111 (December 1996) and
Actuarial Study No. 115 (July 2001).
As the complexity of the OASDI program has increased over the years, the methods used to prepare actuarial estimates for the pro-
gram have increased in complexity as well. Legislative changes, periodic reviews from various technical advisory panels, and
improved actuarial methods have resulted in a substantial amount of detail being added to program estimates. The detail allows the
short-range staff to monitor program dynamics more closely, and hopefully improve the accuracy and utility of the estimates. The
complexity is evident from the over 200 tables shown in this study which provide only a summary of the detail of trust fund projec-
tions.
The authors, Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker, are to be commended for their painstaking effort in preparing a document
of this scope. I would also like to thank Steve McKay for his overall guidance and careful review of the various drafts of this study.
His efforts contributed significantly to the accuracy and clarity of this presentation. As we have indicated in previous editions, the
size of the study prevents us from publishing full, updated reports each year. However, the authors have automated production of
the tables, for which we expect to have more frequent updates available on the Social Security Administration’s website at
www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. Additional copies of the study are available upon request. Please refer to the
back cover for details. Finally, readers are welcome to provide comments or suggestions regarding any of the material contained
within. Such feedback will improve future versions of this actuarial study, and may result in improvements to estimation methods.
Comments to the authors can be submitted at either the address shown on the back cover or via e-mail directed to Chris.Motsiopou-
[email protected] or [email protected].

Eli N. Donkar, Ph.D., A.S.A., M.A.A.A.
Deputy Chief Actuary
i
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II. ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
A. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1. Productivity Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2. Price Inflation Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3. Average Earnings Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
4. Assumed Real-Wage Differentials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
5. Labor Force and Unemployment Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
6. Gross Domestic Product Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
7. Interest Rate Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
B. AUTOMATICALLY ADJUSTED PROGRAM AMOUNTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
C. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1. Fertility Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2. Death Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3. Life Expectancy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
4. Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
D. PROGRAMMATIC ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1. Covered Workers and Coverage Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2. Fully Insured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3. Disability Insured. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
4. Disability Incidence Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
5. Disability Termination Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1. Awards and Incidence Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2. Terminations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3. In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4. Withheld (Suspensions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5. Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
6. Dependents of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES . . . . . . . . . 58
1. Fully Insured Beneficiaries Aged 60 or Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
a. In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
b. Awards: Establishing the Fully Insured Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
c. Awards: Establishing Retirement Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
d. Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
e. Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
f. Semiannual Retired Worker Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
2. Minor Children. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3. Disabled Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
4. Student Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
5. Semiannual Child Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6. Young Spouses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
7. Mothers and Fathers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
8. Semiannual Young Spouses and Mothers and Fathers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
9. Disabled Widows and Widowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
10. Uninsured Aged Spouses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
11. Uninsured Aged Widows and Widowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
12. Parents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
13. Special Age-72 Beneficiaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
14. OASDI Beneficiaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
iii
C. AVERAGE BENEFIT AT AWARD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
1. Sample Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
2. Sample Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
3. Simulated Samples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
4. Simulated Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
5. Earnings Prior to 1951. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
6. Benefit Calculations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
7. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
D. DISABILITY INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
1. Average Benefit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
2. Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
3. Benefits In Non-Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
1. Average Benefit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
2. Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
3. Benefits In Non-Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
4. Lump-Sum Death Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
5. Dual-Entitlement Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
6. Quarterly Benefit Payments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
IV. TRUST FUND INCOME AND OUTGO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
A. TRUST FUND INCOME. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
1. FICA and SECA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
2. State Deposits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
3. Adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
4. Refunds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
5. Taxation of Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
6. Military Service Payments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
7. Benefits to Uninsured Persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
8. Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
B. TRUST FUND OUTGO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
1. Unnegotiated Checks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
2. Vocational Rehabilitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
3. Railroad Board Interchange. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
4. Administrative Expenses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
C. TRUST FUND PROGRESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
1. OASI Trust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
2. DI Trust Fund. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
A. LOW COST ASSUMPTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
B. HIGH COST ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
APPENDICES
A. DETERMINATION OF THE WAGE BASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
B. SCHEDULED INCREASES IN NORMAL RETIREMENT AGE (NRA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
C. DISABLED WORKER INCIDENCE AND AWARDS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
D. DISABLED WORKER ADJUSTED INCIDENCE RATE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
E. DISABLED WORKER TERMINATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
F. AVERAGE AGE OF DISABLED WORKERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
G. DISABLED WORKER PROJECTION BY SINGLE-YEAR-OF-AGE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
H. GLOSSARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
iv
LIST OF TABLES
Table Description Page
II. ASSUMPTIONS
II.1 Principal Economic Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
II.2 Additional Economic Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
II.3 Interest Rates for Special Public-Debt Obligations Issuable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds. . . . . . . . . . . 11
II.4 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage and Average Wage Index Increases,
OASDI Contribution and Benefit Base, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
II.5 Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions. . . . . . . . . . 13
II.6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
II.7 Covered Workers in the Social Security Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
II.8 Covered Workers as a Percent of the Social Security Area Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
II.9 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS
III.A1 Workers Fully Insured for Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
III.A2 Social Security Area Population Under Normal Retirement Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
III.A3 Workers Under Normal Retirement Age Who Are Fully Insured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
III.A4 Labor Force Participation Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Disability Insurance Program—Number of Beneficiaries
III.A5 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability as a Percent of Fully Insured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
III.A6 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
III.A7 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
III.A8 DI Disabled Worker Incidence Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
III.A9 DI Disabled Worker Awards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
III.A10 DI Disabled Worker Total Termination Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
III.A11 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Death. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
III.A12 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
III.A13 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to “Other” Reasons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
III.A14 DI Disabled Worker Total Terminations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
III.A15 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
III.A16 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
III.A17 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to “Other” Reasons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
III.A18 DI Disabled Worker Withheld Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
III.A19 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
III.A20 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
III.A21 DI Awards to Young and Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
III.A22 DI Awards to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
III.A23 DI Male Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
III.A24 DI Female Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
III.A25 DI Total Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
III.A26 DI Young Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
v
III.A27 DI Young Husbands of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
III.A28 DI Aged Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
III.A29 DI Aged Husbands of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
III.A30 DI Total Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
III.A31 DI Minor Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
III.A32 DI Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
III.A33 DI Student Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program—Number of Beneficiaries
III.B1 Population in the Social Security Area, Age 60 or Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
III.B2 OASI Workers Who Are Fully Insured, Age 60 or Older . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
III.B3 Percent of the Population That Is Fully Insured, Age 60 or Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
III.B4 Retired Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
III.B5 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
III.B6 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
III.B7 Total Insured Aged Beneficiaries In Force, Age 60 or Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
III.B8 Total Insured Aged Beneficiaries In Force, Age 60 or Older as a Percentage of Fully Insured Population . 72
III.B9 Retirement Rates for Insured Aged OASI Beneficiaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
III.B10 Awards to Retired Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
III.B11 Awards to Insured Aged Widows and Widowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
III.B12 Awards to Insured Aged Spouses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
III.B13 Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
III.B14 Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Retired Workers In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
III.B15 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
III.B16 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Insured Aged Widow(ers) In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
III.B17 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
III.B18 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Insured Aged Spouses In Force . . . . . . 82
III.B19 Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
III.B20 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
III.B21 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
III.B22 Retired Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
III.B23 Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
III.B24 Non-Orphan and Orphan Population, Under 18, in the Social Security Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
III.B25 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
III.B26 Awards to Minor Children of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Non-Orphan Population . . . . . . . . . 90
III.B27 Awards to Minor Children of Retired Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
III.B28 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
III.B29 Minor Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
III.B30 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
vi
III.B31 Awards to Minor Children of Deceased Workers as a Percentage of the Orphan Population . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
III.B32 Awards to Minor Children of Deceased Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
III.B33 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
III.B34 Minor Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
III.B35 Uninsured Population in the Social Security Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
III.B36 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
III.B37 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
III.B38 Awards to Disabled Children of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population . . . . . . . . . 102
III.B39 Awards to Disabled Children of Retired Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
III.B40 Awards to Disabled Children of Deceased Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population . . . . . . . 104
III.B41 Awards to Disabled Children of Deceased Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
III.B42 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
III.B43 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Disabled Children In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
III.B44 Disabled Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
III.B45 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
III.B46 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Disabled Children In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
III.B47 Disabled Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
III.B48 Student Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
III.B49 Student Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
III.B50 Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force and as a Percent of Male Retired Workers In Force. . 114
III.B51 Children of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status and as a Percent of
Male Retired Workers In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
III.B52 Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
III.B53 Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
III.B54 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
III.B55 Awards to Young Spouses of Retired Workers, Per 1,000 Awards to Eligible Children of Retired Workers 119
III.B56 Awards to Young Spouses of Retired Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
III.B57 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Young Spouses In Force . 121
III.B58 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
III.B59 Young Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
III.B60 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
III.B61 Awards to Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers, Per 1,000 Awards to Eligible Children of
Deceased Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
III.B62 Awards to Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
III.B63 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Young Widow(er)s
In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
III.B64 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
III.B65 Young Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
III.B66 Young Wives of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . 130
III.B67 Young Husbands of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . 131
III.B68 Mother Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
III.B69 Father Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
vii
III.B70 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
III.B71 Awards to Disabled Widow(er)s as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population, Less Those Already
In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
III.B72 Awards to Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
III.B73 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Those In Force . . 137
III.B74 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
III.B75 Disabled Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
III.B76 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
III.B77 Awards to Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population,
Less Those Already In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
III.B78 Awards to Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
III.B79 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Those In Force. 143
III.B80 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
III.B81 Uninsured Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
III.B82 Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
III.B83 Aged Spouses of Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
III.B84 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
III.B85 Awards to Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured
Population, Less Those Already In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
III.B86 Awards to Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
III.B87 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of
Those In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
III.B88 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
III.B89 Uninsured Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . 153
III.B90 Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
III.B91 Aged Widow(er)s of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
III.B92 Parents of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . 156
III.B93 Special Age-72 Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
III.B94 Summary of OASDI Beneficiaries In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
OASDI Average Award Amounts
III.C1 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Disabled Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
III.C2 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Young and Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
III.C3 DI Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Minor, Disabled, and Student Children of Disabled Workers . . . 165
III.C4 Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Retired Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
III.C5 Average Monthly Benefit Awarded to Survivors of Deceased Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Disability Insurance Program—Benefit Payments
III.D1 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Male Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
III.D2 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Female Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
III.D3 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Total Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
III.D4 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Young Wives of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
III.D5 DI Average Monthly Benefit to Young Husbands of Disabled Workers In Force, Awarded, Terminated,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
viii