Shifting Power in Asia-Pacific?: The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance

779 Pages·2017·10.78 MB·English

by  Enrico Fels (auth.)

Global Power Shift
Enrico Fels
Shifting
Power in
Asia-Pacifi c?
The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition
and Regional Middle Power Allegiance
Global Power Shift
Comparative Analysis and Perspectives
Serieseditor:
XuewuGu
CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Bonn,Germany
ManagingEditor:
EnricoFels
CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Germany
InternationalAdvisoryBoard:
LuisFernandes,PontificiaUniversidadeCatolicadoRiodeJaneiro,Brazil
G.JohnIkenberry,PrincetonUniversity,USA
CanrongJin,RenminUniversityofBeijing,China
SrikanthKondapalli,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India
DingliShen,FudanUniversity,China
KazuhikoTogo,KyotoSanyoUniversity,Japan
RobertoZoboli,CatholicUniversityofMilan,Italy
Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of
internationalrelationstakingplacebetweenindustrializedcountriesandemerging
powers,aswellasbetweenstatesandnon-stateactors.However,thereisadearthof
theoretical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for
coherent approaches to understand and measure the transformation. The central
issuestobeaddressedincludetheoreticalquestionsandempiricalpuzzles:Howcan
studiesofglobalpowershiftandtheriseof‘emergingpowers’benefitfromexisting
theories, and which alternative aspects and theoretical approaches might be suit-
able? How can the meanings, perceptions, dynamics, and consequences of global
power shift be determined and assessed? This edited series will include highly
innovativeresearchonthesetopics.Itaimstobringtogetherscholarsfromallmajor
worldregionsaswellasdifferentdisciplines,includingpoliticalscience,econom-
ics and human geography. The overall aim is to discuss and possibly blend their
differentapproachesandprovidenewframeworksforunderstandingglobalaffairs
andthegovernanceofglobalpowershifts.
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10201
Enrico Fels
Shifting Power in
Asia-Pacific?
The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition
and Regional Middle Power Allegiance
EnricoFels
CenterforGlobalStudies
UniversityofBonn
Bonn,Germany
Dissertation anderRheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn,2016
Additional material tothis bookcanbedownloaded from http://extras.springer.com.
ISSN2198-7343 ISSN2198-7351 (electronic)
GlobalPowerShift
ISBN978-3-319-45688-1 ISBN978-3-319-45689-8 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-45689-8
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016957839
©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2017
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Acknowledgements
This study is based on a dissertation submitted at the Rheinische Friedrich-
Wilhelms-Universita¨t Bonn in autumn 2015. In many ways, writing a PhD thesis
is a long expedition; neither the precise length of the trip nor the exact place of
arrival is certain at the time of departure. Fortunately, several people have
supportedmeduringtheyearsofmyresearchvoyage,particularlybyencouraging
metoexplorenewmethodologiesandtheoreticalapproaches,byhelpingmetostay
focused or by providing spiritual support in times of frustration (yes, research is
rarelyalinearjourney,detoursmustbetakenandoccasionallyapatonthebackis
allthatisneededtogetbackontrack).
Firstandforemost,IwishtothankmysupervisorProf.Dr.XuewuGu,Director
of the Center for Global Studies (CGS) at the University of Bonn, not only for
offeringmetheinterestingandchallengingopportunitytomorecloselyinvestigate
the potential power shift between China and the USA, but for constantly pushing
my academic boundaries and always giving me invaluable academic advice and
moralsupportwhenneeded.Withouthimandhisguidance,thisdissertationwould
not have been possible. His constructive criticism as well as the helpful ideas put
forwardbyhiminournumerousdiscussionsonthemattercontributedimmeasur-
ablytotheformation,developmentandconclusionofmyPhDthesis.
IamfurthermoreverymuchindebtedtoProf.Dr.ChristophSchuckfromtheTU
Dortmund’s Institute for Philosophy and Political Science and Vice Dean of the
Faculty for Human Science and Theology for being my secondary supervisor. He
guided my research in both face-to-face and telephone conversations, and his
valuable suggestions fostered this book in many ways. When he offered me the
opportunity to present my research in his PhD colloquium at the TU Dortmund, I
initially did not expect that participation in the colloquium would trigger such an
inspiringandhelpfulexchangeofideas.Iamthusverygratefultohimandallthe
otherparticipants.Inthesamecontext,IalsowishtothankthemembersoftheCGS
PhDcolloquiumaswellastheparticipantsoftheShanghaiInternationalWorkshop
onStructuralPower(2011)andaYaleInternationalConferenceonthedisputesin
v
vi Acknowledgements
the South China Sea (2016). In these and many other for a I found diligent
researcherswhoprovidedhelpfulcommentsovertheyearsofmyresearch.
Imoreoverbenefitedfromthecomprehensiveacademicandprivateencourage-
mentsprovidedbycurrentandformercolleaguesattheCGS.Prof.Dr.Maximilian
Mayer, Krystin Unverzagt, Dr. Andrej Pustovitovskij, Hendrik Ohnesorge,
KatharinaBelowandJan-FrederikKremerhaveallowedmetodiscussmythoughts
withtheminatrulyinspiringandproductiveacademicenvironment.Ialwaysfound
theircommentstobehelpfulinonewayoranotherandourdiscussionsconstantly
stimulatedmyresearchendeavours.Moreover,Hendrikwaskindenoughtoproof-
read large parts of the thesis and provided truly helpful feedback. Several other
current and former colleagues at the CGS were likewise supportive: Pavlina
Schmitz, Valentin Urban, Susan Westhoff, Orsina Kather, Sanni Kunnas, Nina
Nick, Eva Bosse and Iris Volg not only constantly encouraged me but aided me
inmyacademicandadministrativedutiesattheUniversityofBonn,forwhichIam
verygratefultothem.
Big thanks are also due to Prof. Dr. Sarah Kirchberger from Hamburg
University’s Asia-Africa-Institute, Dr. Henrike Viehrig from Bonn University’s
North America Studies Program, Dr. Klaas Staal from Karlsstad University’s
Economic Department, Dr. Omer Majeed from the College of Asia & the Pacific
oftheAustralianNationalUniversity(ANU),Dr.ThomasLenzen,Berlin,andProf.
John Derrick Ovington, emeritus at ANU, for kindly proofreading, commenting
and/or polishing essential parts of the thesis as well as for providing valuable
comments on important aspects of my project even on very short notice. Further-
more,Iam grateful toDr.David Teller forhis manyvaluableremarksduringour
productive discussions throughout my research. My good Australian friends Amy
Vickers and Freya Ovington helped me enormously by correcting and editing the
wholemanuscriptagain—Ifeeltrulyblessedfortheirsubstantialsupport.
I am moreover indebted to Prof. Dr. Reimund Seidelmann, emeritus at Gießen
University, who has frequently enabled me to discuss my ideas with international
scholars on multiple occasions in Europe and Asia. Furthermore, I am grateful to
Dr. Gudrun Wacker from the German Institute for International and Security/
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) for her helpful comments on a paper
draftduringtheDVPWconferenceinOctober2011inMunich,duringwhichtimeI
first discussed some of the ideas for my thesis, as well as for the generously
provided opportunity to debate with some of the leading figures of our discipline
duringthemanyoccasionssheinvitedmetoSWP’sprestigiousBerlinConference
on Asian Security. Additionally, I wish to extend special gratitude to Prof.
Dr. Volker Kronenberg, Vice Dean at the Faculty of Arts and Humanities and
Academic Director at the Institute for Political Science and Sociology at Bonn
University,aswellasProf.Dr.RalphKauz,DirectoroftheDepartmentofSinology
atBonnUniversity’sInstituteforOrientandAsianStudies,forkindlyparticipating
intheexaminationboardthatwasresponsibleforassessingbothmyPhDthesisand
mydisputation.Inthiscontext,IalsowishtoexpressmygratitudetoAnkePieland
Dr. Manuel Becker for their invaluable administrative support particularly during
the final stages of the PhD process. Many thanks are also due to Dr. Johannes
Acknowledgements vii
Gla¨ser,MarionKreiselandSulataKumariNayakfromSpringer’sEconomicsand
PoliticalScienceSectionandSPiGlobalrespectivelyfortheirgreatsupportduring
thepublicationprocess.
I furthermore wish to thank two of my former academic mentors: Prof.
Dr.StefanSchirmfromtheChairforInternationalRelationsattheRuhr-University
BochumandProf.RobertAyson,PhD,nowattheCentreforStrategicStudiesatthe
VictoriaUniversityofWellington.Withouttheirgreatteaching,intellectualinteg-
rity and helpful guidance through my academic career’s earlier stages, I probably
wouldnothavedecidedtoremaininacademia.StefanSchirmwasresponsiblefor
triggeringmyinterestinInternationalRelationsinthefirstplaceandoutlinedtome
the importance of theory for understanding the world’s complexity. At the
Australian National University, Robert Ayson deepened my understanding of the
manysignificantlayersofAsia’sriseandpiquedmyempiricalcuriosityregarding
the role of middle powers in international affairs. I hope they both like this main
productofmyresearch.
Last but not least, I am profoundly indebted to my family and my friends for
theirunwaveringpracticalandspiritualsupportthroughoutthemanyyearsittook
toresearchandwritemythesis.DoingaPhDnexttoafull-timepositionasresearch
fellowconsumesalotoftime.Thisinevitablyaffectssocialrelationswithrelatives
and close friends. I thank all of them for their tolerance and understanding. In
particular,Iwishtothankmyparentsfortheirloveandsupportduringtheyearsof
writing.MywonderfulwifeKatjasupportedmeimmenselyinbothemotionaland
academic ways. She has accepted—at times grudgingly, but always generously—
myresearch’s impact on ourfamily life with ouramazing sonCarl Leopold, who
despite the many hours I have spent in the office still recognizesme. Without my
wife’s patience, her sound advice as an academic working at the crossroads of
economics and political science as well as her editing in the evening hours, on
weekends and during holidays, my thesis would probably never have reached its
currentempiricaldepthandmethodologicalstrength.Thankyouforeverything,my
love.ItistoyouthatIgratefullydedicatethisbook.
Contents
1 OpeningtheFloor:TheRivalryBetweenEagleandDragon
inAsia-Pacific. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 LiteratureOverview:TheAttestedStruggleBetweenGiants. . . 14
1.2 TacklingtheAcademicVoid:ResearchPuzzleandResearch
Questions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
1.3 SomeOpeningWordsonMethodologyandResearchDesign. . . 58
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
2 TheoreticalFramework:RealismasaLensforAnalysis. . . . . . . . 85
2.1 ClassicalRealism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
2.2 StructuralRealism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
2.3 TheCoreofRealistTheories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
2.4 TheBalance-of-PowerTheory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
2.5 InternationalCooperationinaRealistWorld.. . . . . .. . . . .. . 121
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
3 PowerinInternationalRelations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
3.1 AggregateUnderstandingsofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
3.2 RelationalUnderstandingsofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
3.3 StructuralUnderstandingsofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
3.4 TheChallengeofMeasuringPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
3.5 TheContinuingRelevanceofCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
4 TowardsaMiddlePowerTheoryinInternationalRelations. . . . . 195
4.1 GreatPowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
4.2 MiddlePowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
4.3 TheRoleofMiddlePowersinUnderstandingShifts
inRelationalPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
ix
x Contents
5 TakingStockofAsia-Pacific’sTangiblePowerChanges:
MeasuringAggregatePower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
5.1 AnIndexofAggregatePower:TheClineFormula. . . . . . . . . 227
5.1.1 CriticalMass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
5.1.2 EconomicCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
5.1.3 MilitaryCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
5.1.4 StrategicPurposeandNationalWill. . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
5.2 ReconceptualisingandRefiningtheClineFormula:Modelling
aNewCompositeIndicatoronAggregatePower(CIAP). . . . . 240
5.2.1 Standardisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
5.2.2 WeightingandGrouping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
5.2.3 AggregationandSensitivityTesting. . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
5.3 AddingEmpiricalFleshtoTheoreticalBones:Calculating
theCIAP. .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . 251
5.3.1 CriticalMass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
5.3.2 EconomicCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
5.3.2.1 GrossNationalProduct. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
5.3.2.2 DomesticEnergySupplyandExternal
EnergyDependence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
5.3.2.3 CriticalNonfuelMinerals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
5.3.2.4 IndustrialStrength.. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . 275
5.3.2.5 FoodProductionandDependency. . . . . . . . 283
5.3.2.6 Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
5.3.3 MilitaryCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
5.3.4 StrategicPurposeandNationalWill. . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
5.4 AssemblingtheCIAP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
5.5 SummaryandEvaluationofFindings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
6 Determiningthe(Almost)Intangible:MeasuringRelational
Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
6.1 DefiningMeasuresforComparativeCaseStudiesin
Mixed-MethodResearchonRelationalPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . 344
6.2 NeitherSmallNorGreat:IdentifyingMiddlePowers
inAsia-Pacific. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 353
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
7 Australia:TradingwiththeDragon,ButFlyingwiththeEagle. . . 365
7.1 AustraliaasaMiddlePower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
7.1.1 EconomicDevelopment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
7.1.2 ForeignPolicy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
7.1.3 SecurityProfile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
7.2 Australia’sRelationswiththeUnitedStates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
7.3 Australia’sRelationswithChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
7.4 Analysis:ShiftingAllegiance?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427