Table Of ContentSECURITY POLmCS IN THE COMMONWEALTH OF
INDEPENDENT STATES
Also by Mehdi Mozajfari
AU1HORITY IN ISLAM
Security Politics in the
Commonwealth of
Independent States
The Southern Belt
Edited by
Mehdi Mozaffari
Department ofP olitical Science
University ofA arhus
Denmark
First published in Great Britain 1997 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London
Companies and representatives throughout the world
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-349-25788-1 ISBN 978-1-349-25786-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-25786-7
First published in the United States of America 1997 by
ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC.,
Scholarly and Reference Division,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010
ISBN 978-0-312-17459-0
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Security politics in the commonwealth of Independent States: the
southern belt I edited by Mehdi Mozaffari.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-312-17459-0 (cloth)
I. Asia, Central-Foreign relations-I 99 1- 2. Asia, Central
-Economic conditions. 3. National security-Asia, Central.
I. Mozaffari, Mehdi.
DK859.57.C57 1997
327.58'009'049-dc21 97-1718
CIP
Selection, editorial matter and Chapters I, 9 and I I © Mehdi Mozaffari 1997
Other chapters © Macmillan Press Ltd 1997
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1997
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This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and
sustained forest sources.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 I
06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97
Contents
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vii
Notes on Contributors viii
Preface Xl
Part I Security and Foreign Policy
1 The CIS' Southern Belt: a New Security System
AI. AlozaJ.rari 3
2 Russian Diplomacy: the Problems of Transition
I. Tiouline 35
3 The Problem of Mongolia's National Security and its Guarantees
K&~~ ~
4 Turkmenistan's Place in Central Asia and the World
R. Freitag-Wirminghaus 66
Part IT External Powers and Central Asia
5 Iran and Central Asia: Responding to Regional Change
A. Ehteshami 87
6 Turkish Policy in Central Asia
G.AI. Winrow 104
7 Afghanistan and Central Asia
A.Hyman 122
8 Central Asia: the View from Beijing, Urumqi and Kashghar
AI. Dillon 133
Part m Regional Cooperation and World Economy
9 CIS' Southern Belt: Regional Cooperation and Integration
AI. AlozaJ.rari 151
10 Transition in Central Asia: Role of the EBRD
AI. Babaev 189
11 The Oil and Gas of the Caspian Sea: Regional Cooperation
and Competition
AI. AlozaJ.rari 198
12 Uzbekistan's Place in the World Economy
S.AI. Kasimov 207
Appendix 1 217
Appendix 2 221
Index 225
List of Tables
Tablel.1 Indigenous and non-indigenous people in the
population of Central Asia 12
Table 5.1 Classification of economies by income, mid-1990s 90
Table 5.2 Oil production outlook of the Muslim republics of
the CIS (,OOOb/d) 91
Table 5.3 Iranian exchanges with the Muslim republics of the
former USSR, 1992-1994 96
Table 5.4 Main OPEC capacity expansion and estimated
required investment 99
Table 9.1 Economic growth in Central Asia 166
Table 9.2 Agriculture, industry and trade in Central Asia 167
Table 11.1 Oil and gas deposits of the Caspian ~egion 199
Table 12.1 Key macroeconomics indices for 1988-1991 210
Table 12.2 The structure of the employed population (in per cent) 210
Table 12.3 The structure of production and spending
(per cent GMP) 211
Table 12.4 The role offoreign trade in Uzbekistan's economy
by years (in per cent) 213
vi
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 The balance of power and the balance of threat 16
Figure 2.1 The Russian Foreign Ministry: administrative division 50
Figure 9.1 Diagram of different cooperation networks (CIS and
regional actors) 152
Figure 9.2 Kozyrev's view - pragmatic model 168
Figure 9.3 Arbatov's view - Slavic-Christian model 169
vii
Notes on Contributors
M. Babaev is a counsellor at the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development in London. He joined the bank in July 1991 as counsel in the
General Counsel's Office and since February 1992 has been a counsellor with
special responsibilities for Central Asia. He is a graduate of Kiev University
where he obtained an MA in public international law and a PhD in
international law . His previous positions include Foreign Associate, Cleary,
Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton, New York, USA, and Professor of International
Law, Baku University School of Law.
E. Boikova is a graduate from the Moscow Institute ofInternational Relations.
Her speciality is foreign affairs. She holds the Russian academic degree of
PhD (History). Her present position is at the Institute of Oriental Studies,
Russian Academy of Sciences where she specializes in modem history and
the culture of Mongolia and SovietlRussian...,.Mongolian relations. She is the
author of more than 30 articles on different aspects of Mongolia's internal
affairs and its foreign relations, a monograph on the foreign policy of
Mongolia in the 1960-1970s and a bibliography of Mongolian studies in the
USSR in 1987-1991.
M. DiIlon is a lecturer in modem Chinese history in the Department of East
Asian Studies at the University of Durham, UK. He has a BA in Chinese
and a PhD in Chinese history from the University of Leeds and his main
research interests are the history of the Muslim Hui people of Gansu and
Ningxia in northwestern China and the Uyghurs ofXinjiang and current social
and political change in China and Central Asia. He has carried out research
in China, Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
A. Ehteshami is a reader in international relations and the Director of
Postgraduate Studies at the Centre for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies,
University of Durham. He received his PhD in politics from the University
of Exeter where he was appointed a lecturer in politics (1989-1993) and
Director of the Middle East Politics Programmes (1992-1993). Among his
most recent publications are Islamic Fundamentalism (co-editor) (Westview
Press, 1996), After Khomeini: the Iranian Second Republic (Routledge,
1995) and From the Gulf to Central Asia: Players in the New Great Game
(editor) (University of Exeter Press, 1994).
VllI
Notes on Contributors ix
R. Freitag-Wirminghaus, D. Phil., studied Islamic Studies, Turkology and
Ethnology at Hamburg University. In 1986-1987 he was an academic
member of the Orient Institute of the Deutsche Morgenliindische GeseIlschaft.
Since 1989 he has been working for the Gennan Orient-Institute, Hamburg.
His subjects of research are Turkey, Transcaucasus and Central Asia.
A. Hyman is an associate editor of the journal Central Asian Survey (London)
and he was a senior fellow of the SSRC-MacArthur Foundation (New York)
on Peace and Security in a Changing World, 1991-1993, and a visiting
fellow at Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford, 1991-1992. He is
the author of Afghanistan under Soviet Domination 1964-91 (Macmillan,
London, 1992, third edition). He also edited Pakistan. Zia and After (Asia
Publishing House, London, 1989) and has written chapters in various books
including The Cambridge Encyclopedia oft he Middle East, edited by Trevor
Mostyn and Albert Hourani (Cambridge University Press, 1988). He is
currently writing a book focusing on nationalism and independence in the
Central Asia region.
S. M. Kasimov is the Director of the Institute of Economy, Business, and
Retraining under Tashkent State Economic University, Head of the 'Small
and Medium Size Business' Department and works in the field of applying
economic mathematical methods in small and medium sized businesses. He
has published 81 scientific articles and monographs. He acts as a consultant
in connection with creating effective and medium sized enterprises and the
privatization of state enterprises. He has experience in organizing and
conducting scientific, practical seminars on market relations principles.
M. Mozaffari is Dr d'Etat en Science Politique (Sorbonne-Pantheon). He
is the fonner head of the Department of International Relations at Tehran
University and the University of Aarhus, a fonner professor of Political
Science at Tehran University, a fonner associate professor at the Sorbonne,
and a Docent ofInternational Relations at the University of Aarhus (Denmark).
He is the author of a number of books and articles within the following fields:
theories of international politics, the Middle East, Islam and the
Commonwealth of Independent States.
I. Tiouline is a professor of political science and the first vice-rector of the
Moscow State Institute (University) of International Relations (MGIMO).
From 1970 till 1992 he was Assistant to the Rector, General Secretary,
Director of the Center of International Studies, Vice-Rector and Director of
Research of the MGIMO. He is a member of several international boards
