Secession and Security: Explaining State Strategy against Separatists

308 Pages·2017·5.82 MB·English

by  Ahsan I. Butt

Secession and Security
a volume in the series
Cornell Studies in Security Affairs
Edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt
A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress.cornell.edu.
Secession and
Security
Explaining State Strategy
against Separatists
Ahsan I. Butt
Cornell University Press
Ithaca and London
Cornell University Press gratefully acknowledges receipt of a
subvention from the Schar School of Policy and Government, George
Mason University, which aided in the publication of this book.
Copyright © 2017 by Cornell University
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book,
or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without
permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address
Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca,
New York 14850.
First published 2017 by Cornell University Press
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Butt, Ahsan I., 1983– author.
Title: Secession and security : explaining state strategy against
separatists / Ahsan I. Butt.
Description: Ithaca : Cornell University Press, 2017. | Series: Cornell
studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical references
and index.
Identifi ers: LCCN 2017007187 (print) | LCCN 2017011382 (ebook) |
ISBN 9781501713965 (epub/mobi) | ISBN 9781501713958 (pdf) |
ISBN 9781501713941 (cloth : alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Separatist movements—Case studies. | Secession—
Case studies. | Internal security—Case studies.
Classifi cation: LCC JC327 (ebook) | LCC JC327 .B87 2017 (print) |
DDC 320.1/5—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017007187
Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible
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and acid-free papers that are recycled, totally chlorine-free, or partly
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website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.
Cover: Refugees board buses for India, Bangladesh, 1971.
Photo © Raghu Rai/Magnum Photos.
Contents
List of Illustrations vii
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction: Ins and Outs of Separatist War 1
1 . An External Security Theory of Secessionist Confl ict 17
2 . Pakistan’s Genocide in Bengal and Limited War
in Balochistan, 1971–1977 42
3 . India’s Strategies against Separatism in Assam,
Punjab, and Kashmir, 1984–1994 83
4. The Ottoman Empire’s Escalation from Reforms to
the Armenian Genocide, 1908–1915 125
5 . Peaceful and Violent Separatism in North America,
Europe, and the Middle East, 1861–1993 163
Conclusion: Security and Separatism in the
Contemporary World 214
Notes 225
References 265
Index 285
v

Illustrations
Tables
1. Explaining case selection 15
2. Probability of future war 32
Figures
1. State decision-making when confronted by separatists 40
2. Variation in Pakistan’s responses to secessionism in the 1970s 45
3. Variation in India’s responses to secessionism in the 1980s 86
4. Variation in the Ottoman Empire’s treatment
of Armenians, 1908–15 129
5. Variation in state response to secessionism in the
Middle East, Europe, and North America, 1861–1993 165
Maps
1. Separatism in South Asia 43
2. The Armenian provinces 126
vii

Acknowledgments
It may not look like it, but I have had a lot of help writing this book. In
January 2009, I sat with two friends, Rose Kelanic and Lindsey O’Rourke, at
the University of Chicago’s business school cafeteria to discuss my ideas.
I knew I wanted to focus on why states are so reluctant to cede territory to
separatists, and I knew existing research was not satisfactory, but that was
about all I knew. The prospect of outlining even a question, let alone an
answer, was daunting. Over panini and chips, Lindsey piped up and said
(something to the effect of): “Why don’t you focus on how state repression
is caused by the external threat of the movement?” Why don’t I, indeed.
The eight years since have been devoted to sorting out how, why, and the
extent to which state strategies against separatist movements are tied to
security concerns. In those eight years, I have been fortunate to receive gen-
erous support from the Mellon Foundation, the American Council of
Learned Societies, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), and the Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School.
It is diffi cult to write without adequate fi nancial support, and these institu-
tions ensured I had it.
While money was important, the people who helped me write this book
were more so. At Chicago, I was fortunate to fi nd people who challenged,
cajoled, intimidated, and inspired me. John Mearsheimer was the father
fi gure I could never satisfy (not alone there—just ask any Chicago student
from the past thirty years), Paul Staniland the older cousin whom I wanted
to emulate (good luck with that), and Duncan Snidal the friendly uncle
from Canada (unsolicited advice for graduate students: have at least one
good cop on your committee). I will never be able to repay their attention to
me and my work, from reading chapters to socializing me in the ways of
ix