Table Of ContentSEAPOWER IN GLOBAL POLITICS, 1494--1993
Also by George Mode/ski
A THEORY OF FOREIGN POLICY
LONG CYCLES IN WORLD POLITICS
TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS AND WORLD
ORDER (editor)
PRINCIPLES OF WORLD POLITICS
Also by William R. Thompson
CONTENDING APPROACHES TO WORLD SYSTEM
ANALYSIS (editor)
RHYTHMS IN POLITICS AND ECONOMICS (co-editor)
THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF POLITICS (co-author)
Seapower in Global
Politics, 1494-1993
George Modelski
Professor of Political Science
University of Washington
and
William R. Thompson
Professor of International Relations
Claremont Graduate School
M
MACMILLAN
PRESS
©George Modelski and William R. Thompson 1988
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1988
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission
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civil claims for damages.
First published 1988
Published by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
Typeset by Latimer Trend & Company Ltd
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Modelski, George
Seapower in global politics, 1494-1993.
1. Seapower-Political aspects
2. Seapower-History
I. Title II. Thompson, William R.
359'.009'03 027
ISBN 978-1-349-09156-0 ISBN 978-1-349-09154-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-09154-6
Contents
List of Tables Vll
List of Figures X
Preface xi
The Long Cycle xiii
PART 1 GLOBAL OVERVIEW
1 Seapower and Global Politics 3
2 Seapower and its Measurement Rules 27
3 Rules for counting Warships, 1494--1860 50
4 Rules for Counting Warships, 1861-1993 73
5 The Long Cycle of World Leadership 97
6 The Future of Seapower 133
PART II COUNTRY DATA
7 The World Powers: Was Portugal the First? 151
8 The World Powers: the Netherlands, Great Britain and the
United States 186
9 The Other Global Powers: France, Spain, Russia/the
Soviet Union, Germany and Japan 245
10 Non-global Powers 316
Appendix A: Naval Expenditures 338
Appendix B: Long cycle concentration values 351
Notes 355
References 357
Index 376
v
List of Tables
1.1 Long cycles and global wars 16
1.2 Precipitating causes of global wars 19
1.3 Global wars and principal sea battles 21
1.4 World powers and naval innovations 25
2.1 British naval personnel and expenditures, 1715-1900 30
2.2 Data collection outcome for the global powers' warships,
1494--1860 46
3.1 Primary sources for sixteenth-century ship estimates 55
3.2 Chaunus's description of Spanish warships employed in
the Atlantic, 1522-86 58
3.3 Numerical distribution of global power warships,
1494--1654 62
3.4 Numerical distribution of global power warships,
1655-1860 67
4.1 Numerical distribution of global power battleships,
1861-1879 75
4.2 Numerical distribution of global power
pre-Dreadnoughts, 1880--1913 76
4.3 Numerical distribution of global power Dreadnoughts,
1906--45 78
4.4 Global power constant naval expenditures, 1816--1938 80
4.5 Proportion of deliverable strategic nuclear warheads
based at sea, 1960--80 84
4.6 Soviet nuclear ballistic submarines: Delta-class estimates 89
4.7 Primary sources for late twentieth-century naval
estimates 90
4.8 The American share of global naval capability, 1946--93 91
4.9 Three indexes of contemporary military capabilities 94
5.1 The global powers 98
5.2 Years of high concentration of naval power 105
5.3 World powers and clusters of high concentration of
naval power 106
5.4 Clusters of years with low concentration values 108
5.5 Global naval power concentration, 1494--1993 110
5.6 Proportional distribution of global power warships,
1494--1608 114
VII
viii List of Tables
5.7 Proportional distribution of global power warships,
1609-1713 116
5.8 Proportional distribution of global power warships,
1714-1815 119
5.9 Proportional distribution of global power sea power,
1816-1945 121
6.1 Circulation of powers in the global political system,
1494-1993 135
7 .I Portuguese galleons, 1515-80 162
7.2 Portugal's estimated annual number of naus and
galleons, 1494-1580 169
7.3 Sailings in the Carreira da India (Navios) 172
7.4 Estimated distribution of Portugal's major ships, 1537 173
7.5 The 'Great Ships' of Portugal: Naus Portuguesas,
1494-1580 175
8.1 Sources on Dutch warships, 1572-1815 193
8.2 The United Provinces of Netherlands' estimated annual
number of warships, 1567-1859 194
8.3 Sources for English/British warships, 1494-1860 212
8.4 England/Great Britain's estimated annual number of
warships, 1494-1860 213
8.5 British battleships, 1861-1945 230
8.6 The United States' estimated annual number of
warships, 1816-60 234
8.7 United States battleships, 1861-1945 238
8.8 United States nuclear ballistic missile submarines,
multiple class estimates (according to the type of missiles
carried), 1960--93 239
8.9 United States nuclear ballistic missile submarines:
warhead estimates, 1960--93 240
8.10 United States nuclear ballistic submarines: warhead
equivalent megatonnage estimates, 1960--93 241
8.11 United States nuclear ballistic submarines: warhead
lethality estimates, 1960--93 242
8.12 United States nuclear-attack submarines, 1954-93 244
9.1 Sources on French warships, 1494-1860 251
9.2 France's estimated annual number of warships,
1494-1860 252
9.3 French battleships, 1861-1945 266
9.4 Sources on Spanish warships, 1494-1836 273
9.5 Spain's estimated annual number of warships, 1494-1836 274
List of Tables tx
9.6 Sources on Russian warships, 1700-1860 287
9. 7 Russia's estimated annual number of warships,
1700-1860 288
9.8 Russia's/the Soviet Union's battleships, 1861-1945 293
9.9 Soviet nuclear ballistic submarines: multiple class
estimates, 1960-93 294
9 .I 0 Soviet nuclear ballistic submarines: warhead estimates,
1960-93 296
9 .II Soviet nuclear ballistic submarines: warhead equivalent
megatonnage estimates, 1960-93 298
9.12 Soviet nuclear ballistic submarines: warhead lethality
estimates, 1960-93 300
9.13 Soviet nuclear attack and Cruise-missile submarines,
1958-93 302
9.14 German battleships, 1861-1945 309
9.15 Japanese battleships, 1861-1945 314
I 0.1 Three identifications of the most significant actors in
world politics 317
l 0.2 Estimations of Venetian and Ottoman numbers of
warships, 1423-1859 318
10.3 Estimations of Swedish and Danish numbers of
warships, 1566-1859 321
I 0.4 Estimations of Portuguese numbers of ships-of-the line,
1640-1849 325
10.5 Estimations of Austrian numbers of ships-of-the-line,
1725-1859 326
10.6 Italian and Austro-Hungarian battleships, 1861-1945 327
I 0. 7 Distribution of aircraft-carriers, 1917-93 331
I 0.8 Distribution of nuclear-attack submarines, 1954-93 333
10.9 Distribution of nuclear SLBM British and French 334
submarines, 1960-93
10.10 Comparative naval strength about 1420 (China, Venice,
Portugal) 336
A. I Naval expenditures, 1816-1945 339
A.2 Price indexes for naval expenditures, 1816-1945
(1913= 100) 343
A.3 Additional information on naval expenditures 347
B.l Long-cycle concentration values (alternative index) 351
List of Figures
2.1 British naval personnel and expenditures, 1715-1900 29
4.1 United States shares of selected global naval capabilities,
1946-93 93
4.2 Emphasising seapower versus other indexes of strategic
nuclear weapons, 1946-93 96
5.1 Two indexes of seapower concentration, 1609-1815 101
5.2 Two indexes of seapower concentration, 1946-93 104
5.3 The long cycle, 1494-1993 109
5.4 Long cycle I 125
5.5 Long cycle II 125
5.6 Long cycle III 126
5.7 Long cycle IV 126
5.8 Long cycle V 127
5.9 Capability trajectories in global war (1560--1650) 128
5.10 Capability trajectories in global war (1640--1750) 129
5.11 Capability trajectories in global war (1770--1870) 130
5.12 Capability trajectories in global war (1870--1958) 131
7.1 Portuguese relative capability share, 1494-1580 170
8.1 Netherlands relative capability share, 1579-1810 194
8.2 English/British relative capability share, 1494-1945 231
8.3 United States relative capability share, 1816-1993 237
9.1 French relative capability share, 1494-1945 267
9.2 Spanish relative capability share, 1494-1808 274
9.3 Russian/Soviet relative capability share, 1714-1993 288
9.4 German relative capability share, 1871-1945 310
9.5 Japanese relative capability share, 1875-1945 315
B-1 Two indexes of seapower concentration, 1494-1993 354
X
