Table Of ContentS L R
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NFRASTRUCTURE
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REDICTION ISKS AND OLUTIONS
EDITED BY
Bilal M. Ayyub, Ph.D., P.E.
University of Maryland, College Park
Michael S. Kearney, Ph.D.
University of Maryland, College Park
ASCE Council on Disaster Risk Management
Monograph No. 6
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Sea level rise and coastal infrastructure : prediction, risks, and solutions / edited by Bilal M.
Ayyub, Michael S. Kearney.
p. cm. -- (Monograph / ASCE Council on Disaster Risk Management ; no. 6)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-7844-1200-8 (pbk.) -- ISBN 978-0-7844-7651-2 (e-book)
1. Coastal zone management. 2. Sea level. 3. Coast changes--Social aspects. 4. Climatic
changes--Social aspects. I. Ayyub, Bilal M. II. Kearney, Michael S.
HT391.S38 2012
551.45′8--dc23 2011051709
American Society of Civil Engineers
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16 15 14 13 12 1 2 3 4 5
Preface
Scientists are estimating that by the end of this century at least 100 million people
worldwide will be affected by rising sea levels. This number, large as it may be,
hinges on the relatively conservative upper end of scenarios for future sea level rise of
the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC
2007). Among many climate scientists there exists considerable disquiet that this top
end estimate could prove too low, as the contribution from polar ice melting still
remains highly uncertain. The resulting impacts on global sea levels could be a rise
on the order of 19.6 feet. An increase in the global trend is very likely, and this
increase will be on the order of two to two-and-a-half times what occurred in the 20th
century, historically a period of the highest rate of sea level rise in the last 1000 years
(Kearney 1996). The challenge of such a sea level rise is indeed formidable and
requires immediate attention in order to examine associated risks and to assess the
socioeconomic impacts for the purpose of developing appropriate long-term measures
and mitigation strategies. With advance planning, the impacts while formidable are
not insurmountable.
The objective of this workshop was to utilize a risk framework to define requirements
and next steps for developing timely and socioeconomically acceptable solutions to
accommodate the challenges posed by rising sea level and climate change. Among
the topics that the workshop will address are (1) modeling of impacts to coastal
infrastructure from rising sea levels and increased intensity of tropical and
extratropical storms, (2) developing strategies for the phase-in of new construction
and how to target existing infrastructures for retrofitting, and (3) developing risk
models that can be linked with overall regional socioeconomic policies. The
workshop will consider the mid-Atlantic region as a case study to produce generic
outcomes applicable to other regions.
Bringing scientists, engineers, and policy-makers together to discuss recent research
findings will help identify research needs and directions. Convening such a workshop
was considered to be timely and necessary, and is not being undertaken at the time of
holding this workshop by key professional societies.
This effort was sponsored by the Council on Disaster Risk Management of the
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE); the Coasts, Oceans, Ports, and Rivers
Institute (COPRI) of ASCE; and three colleges at the University of Maryland at
College Park—the College of Computer, Mathematical and Physical Sciences; the
College of Engineering; and the College of College of Behavioral and Social
Sciences.
iii
The editors would like to acknowledge the workshop’s steering committee:
Alfredo H. Ang, NAE, Professor, University of California, Irvine
Margaret Davidson, Director, Coastal Services Center, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Glenn Higgins, Northrop Grumman Corporation
Maria Honeycutt, Coastal Services Center, NOAA
Dave Kreibel, Professor, U.S. Naval Academy
Shun Ling, Head, Environmental Office, NAVFAC ESC, U.S. Navy
Court Stevenson, Center for Environmental Science, University of Maryland
Dan Walker, Chief, Climate Assessment and Services Division, Climate
Program Office, NOAA
The steering committee’s guidance contributed greatly to the workshop’s success.
The editors also acknowledge the assistance of Alex Riter, Ph.D., and Kristen
Markham in recording and summarizing the discussion at the workshop and that of
Clara Popescu in preparing the Web site for facilitating the discussion at
www.TheElicitor.com.
iv
Council on Disaster Risk Management
Executive Committee (EXCOM)
Nasim Uddin, Ph.D., P.E., F.ASCE, Chair
Yumei Wang, P.E., F.ASCE, Vice Chair
James Beavers, Ph.D., P.E., F.ASCE, Secretary
Vilas Mujumdar, Ph.D., P.E., Member
Anne Kiremidjian, Ph.D., M.ASCE, Past Chair
Advisory Committee
Alfredo H.S. Ang, Ph.D., Hon.M.ASCE
Amar Chakar, Ph.D., M.ASCE
Craig Taylor, Ph.D., Aff.M.ASCE
Erik VanMarcke, Ph.D., M.ASCE
Bilal M. Ayyub, Ph.D., P.E., F.ASCE
Technical Committees & Chair
Mitigation Pre- & Post-Disaster
Chair: Steven Bartlett, Ph.D., P.E., M.ASCE
Vulnerability & Risk
Chair: Bilal M. Ayyub, Ph.D., P.E., F.ASCE
Outreach Education, Policy, Training & Programs
Chair: Berrin Tansel, Ph.D., P.E., D. WRE, F.ASCE
ASCE Staff
John Segna, Catherine Tehan
Activities & Products
Journal of Natural Hazards Review (NHR)
Monographs
Post Disaster Investigations
Conferences
Symposia
Join CDRM at www.asce/taccdrm.com
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Contents
Chapter 1: Quantifying Regional Risk Profiles Attributable
to Sea Level Rise 1
Bilal M. Ayyub, Josue Ramirez, Kristen Markham, and Paul Broqueres
Chapter 2: Sea Level Changes Results from the IPCC 2007 Report
and Subsequent Results 20
Sydney Levitus
Chapter 3: Is the Rate of Sea Level Rise Increasing? An Analysis
Based on U.S. Tide Gauges 28
James R. Houston and Robert G. Dean
Chapter 4: The U.S. Navy’s Approach to Climate Change
and Sea Level Rise 41
Timothy C. Gallaudet and Courtney C. St. John
Chapter 5: The Impact of Climate Change on the National
Flood Insurance Program 59
David Divoky, Steve Eberbach, and Mark Crowell
Chapter 6: A “Toolkit” for Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Virginia 78
William A. Stiles, Jr.
Chapter 7: Response to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Communities:
A Virginia Case Study 101
Eric J. Walberg, Benjamin Mcfarlane, Harry V. Wang, and Barry Stamey
Chapter 8: Sea Level Rise and the Impact of Lesser Storms 120
John D. Boon
Chapter 9: Vulnerability and Governance for Adapting
to Sea Level Rise 136
Margaret E. Peloso
Chapter 10: Defining Coastal Science Needs of the Engineering
Community for Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise 156
Michael S. Kearney
vii
Chapter 11: Summary of Breakout Session Discussion: Potential
Solution Tracks, Research Needs, and Directions 171
Michael S. Kearney, Bilal M. Ayyub, Kristen Markham, and J. Alex Ritter
Appendix A: Contributors 178
Appendix B: Workshop Attendees 180
Index 183
viii
Chapter 1. Quantifying Regional Risk Profiles Attributable to
Sea Level Rise
By Bilal M. Ayyub¹, Josue Ramirez2, Kristen Markham2, and Paul Broqueres2
¹Professor and Director, Center for Technology and Systems Management, Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742, USA, [email protected]
2Research Assistant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland
Abstract
This paper introduces a quantitative risk analysis methodology for regions that might
be affected by rising sea level. The methodology is intended to offer a basis for
quantifying risk profiles to assist decision- and policy-makers and has the
characteristics of being analytic, quantitative, and probabilistic. The hazard is
quantified using a probabilistic framework to obtain hazard profiles as sea elevation-
exceedance probabilities as a function of time. The risk is quantified in the form of
loss-exceedance probabilities as a function of time based on a spectrum of sea level
rise scenarios and increased storm activity. The proposed methodology will enable
decision- and policy-makers to evaluate alternatives for managing these risks, such as
providing increased protection, suggesting population relocation measures, changing
land uses, enhancing protection system operations, and enhancing preparedness for
increased storm frequency and intensity.
Background
By the end of this century, some estimates suggest at least 100 million people
worldwide will be affected by rising sea levels. This number, large as it may be,
hinges on the relatively conservative upper end of scenarios for future sea level rise
of the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC
2007). Many climate scientists are concerned that this top end estimate could prove
too low, as the contribution from polar ice melting still remains highly uncertain. The
resulting impacts could be a rise of about 19.6 ft. for global sea levels. The likely
increase will be on the order of 2 to 2.5 times the rate of sea level rise in the 20th
century, historically a period of the highest rate of sea level rise in the last 1,000 years
(Kearney 2008).
The challenge of such a sea level rise is indeed formidable and requires immediate
attention to examine associated risks and to assess the socioeconomic impacts so that
appropriate long-term measures and mitigation strategies (Ayyub 2003) can be
developed. The potential impacts on some parts of the globe, such as southern Asia,
could be total devastation for some countries.
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