Table Of ContentScenario Studies for the Rural Environment
Scenario Studies for the
Rural Environment
Selected and edited Proceedings of the Symposium
Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment,
Wageningen, The Netherlands, 12-15 September 1994
Edited by
Job F.Th. Schoute
Peter A. Finke
Frank R. Veeneklaas
Henk P. Wolfert
DLO Winand Staring Centre for lntegrated Land, Soi! and Water Research,
Wageningen, The Netherlands
•
se-dia
SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Symposlum "Scenarlo Studles for the Rural Envlronment" (1994
Wagen,ngen. Netherlands>
Scenario studies for the rural env,ronment selected and edlted
proceedlngs of the Symposlum "Scenarl0 Studies for the Rural
Environment." Wageningen. the Netherlands. 12-15 September 1994 !
ed'ted by Job F.Th. Schoute ... [et al. J.
p. cm. -- (Envlronment & policy ; v. 5)
Includes ,ndex.
ISBN 978-94-010-4197-3 ISBN 978-94-011-0441-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-0441-8
1. Land use. Rural--Europe--Plannlng--Congresses. 1. Schoute.
Job F. Th. II. Title. III. Ser,es.
HD583.S96 1994
333.76' 13'094--dc20 95-38231
ISBN 978-94-010-4197-3
Cover:
Watercolour © Lars Emmelin and Michael Jones
Printed on acid-free paper
AII Rights Reserved
© 1995 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1995
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover Ist edition 1995
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
inc1uding photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
v
PREFACE
In 1989anew research institute wasestablishedby amergerof(partsof)four institutes
ofthe Netherlands Ministry ofAgriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries covering
the fields of:
land inventory and land evaluation;
soil and groundwater protection;
quantitative and qualitative water management;
toxic substances in the environment;
landscape management and landscape development;
land use planning and outdoor recreation.
An explicitpurpose was to promote integration ofsectors (functions ofrural areas, e.g.
agriculture, nature, outdoorrecreation); policyfields (e.g. environmentalpolicies, economic
policy);andbranchesofscienceofdifferentbutinterlinkedresearchactivitieswithrespect
toruralareas. Thus, theDLO WinandStaringCentrefor IntegratedLand, SoilandWater
Research was created. Its first lustrum in 1994 offered agoodoccasionbothto evaluate
whatwasaccomplishedandto lookaheadtotheresearchtaskstocome. An international
scientific symposium was one ofthe means to this end.
Thesymposium was held in Wageningen, theNetherlandson 12-15 September 1994 under
the title Scenario Studiesfor the Rural Environment. Around 340 participants from 27
countries participated in the gathering. Thank to a generous gesture for support for the
Commission ofthe European Communities, Directorate-General for Science, Research
and Development (DG XII), anumber ofparticipants from Eastern European countries
couldattendthesymposium.Althoughendangeredenvironmentalqualityandaccelerating
land-usedynamicsareworldwidephenomena,thefocusofthesymposiumwasonEurope.
The central objective was to further our understanding of the needs, aims and
methodologies of future-oriented and decision-supporting research for the rural
environment, and in particularthe role scenario studies could play. Rural areas need to
fulfil a large variety offunctions and to accommodate many activities. Therefore, the
scope ofthe symposium and by consequence ofthese proceedings needs to be rather
broad. It covers the following themes:
nature, variety and scope ofscenario studies;
regional soil and water management;
nature development and landscape quality;
rural planning and the future ofregions.
These themes are reflected in the four parts ofthis book.
The contributions to this symposium - papers by invited speakers and a selection of
submittedposters-havebeenreviewedbythe Editorial ScientificCommittee composed
ofWinand StaringCentrestaff, in some casesassisted by colleagues. Thefinal decision
whether or not to follow the suggestions by this Committee was, however, left to the
authors. They are acknowledged for their ready and apt replies.
VI
Gratitudeisexpressedtosession chairpersonsandinviteddiscussantsfortheirrolein the
success of the symposium and for providing the editors with basic material for the
introduction to this book: Prof. Dr K. Verhoeff (former Director of Science and
TechnologyDepartmentoftheNetherlandsMinistryofAgriculture,NatureManagement
and Fisheries), Prof. Dr L.O. Fresco, Prof. Dr. 1. Bouma, Prof. Dr R.A. Feddes, Prof.
Dr. R. Rabbinge and Prof. Dr. H.N. van Lier (all from the Wageningen Agricultural
University), Prof. DrI.S. Zonneveld(Emeritus ProfessorattheInternational Institutefor
Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences, lTC, Enschede, Netherlands) and Prof. Dr H.A.
Udo de Haes (Centre for Environmental Studies, Leiden, Netherlands).
Iwouldliketoexpressourthanksalsotoallsponsorsofthesymposium: theCommission
ofthe European Communities, Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development
(DG XII), Brussels; the Netherlands Minstry ofAgriculture, Nature Management and
Fisheries, The Hague; Digital Equipment b.v., Utrecht; Grontmij n.v., DeBilt; Grafisch
Service Centrum Van Gils b.v., Wageningen; CCE Land Use Management, Eindhoven;
QRay Agrimathica, Veenendaal; Winnemuller, Wageningen; Separations b.v., Hendrik
IdoAmbacht;HagoNederlandb.v.,Heerlen;BedrijfslaboratoriumvoorGrond-enGewas
onderzoek, Oosterbeek; Kniphorst International Booksellers, Wageningen; B.V. Auto
mobielbedrijfAckermann, Wageningen;AllroundUitzendburo, Wageningen;DHVAlB
b.v., Amersfoort;GTRb.v.,Geldermalsen;HoekLoos, Dieren;InternationalAgricultural
Centre(lAC),Wageningen;KoendersInstrumentsb.v.,Hilversum;LEICAb.v., Rijswijk;
Logisterion Automatisering, Rotterdam; Van der Most, Heerde; ObservatorInstruments
b.v., Ridderkerk; Permar, Ede; Photogravure De Schutter, Antwerpen; Profcolor
Fotovaklab, Veenendaal; RapidocolorNederland b.v., Eindhoven; Wageningen Agricultural
University, Wageningen.
A special word ofgraditude goes to the Commission ofthe European Communities,
Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development (DG XII) for their support
for the publication ofthis proceedings.
I am confident that these proceedings offer interesting reading, also for those who did
not attend this fascinating symposium. Future-orientedresearch in general and scenario
studies in particular are fun to do, but it should be done properly, not least due to the
interest ofour common future rural environment.
Wageningen, July 1995
G.A. Oosterbaan
Director DLO Winand Staring Centre for Integrated Land, Soil and Water Research
vii
Selected and edited proceedings ofthe International Symposium organized bythe DLO
Winand StaringCentrefor Integrated Land, Soil and WaterResearch, Wageningen, The
Netherlands,co-sponsoredbytheCommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities,Directorate
General for Science, Research and Development, DG-XII, Brussels.
Organizing Committee
J.F.Th. Schoute
L.M. van den Berg
J.MJ. Farjon
P.A. Finke
J.H.A.M. Steenvoorden
F.R. Veeneklaas
H.P. Wolfert
J.W.H. van der Kolk (excursions)
L.C. van Liere (editoral assistance)
A Scenario Builder's Inquisition
(a muse from a Symposium)
So, you are a scenario - builder
are these buildings sand castles,
castles in the air,
prisons, pubs or parliaments?
No, I tell stories ofthe future.
So: are they lies, science fiction or fantasy?
Are they tragedy, comedy, thriller or farce?
Are they literature or pulp?
No: I paint pictures ofreality.
So: are they abstract or impressionist,
in or out perspective?
Are they in colour or black and white?
Are they master-pieces, cartoons, caricatures or junk?
No, I make models ofthe world.
So, to what scale and ofwhat parts?
Are they toys, exhibits, plans or prototypes?
Are they fashion models or pornographic?
Perhaps they make you blind.
D.R. Harvey
Wageningen, 13-09-1994
CONTENTS: 'Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment'
General Introduction
PART I ON THE NATURE, VARIETY AND SCOPE OF SCENARIO
STUDIES 5
Introduction to Part I 7
Chapter 1: Scenarios as a tool 9
1.1 F.R. Veeneklaas and L.M. van den Berg
Scenario building: art, craft or just a fashionable whim? 11
1.2 I.J. Schoonenboom
Overview and state ofthe art ofscenario studies for the rural
environment 15
1.3 A.F. van de Klundert
The future's future. Inherent tensions between research, policy
and the citizen in the use offuture oriented studies 25
Chapter 2: Tools for scenario building 33
2.1 P.E.V. van Walsum, 1. Vreke and FJ.E. van der Bolt
Optimization ofregional water management (quantity and quality)
through scenario analysis 35
2.2 D. Harvey and B. White
Regional economics approach: Quantitative models in integrated
scenario studies 55
2.3 J.D. van der Ploeg
The tragedy ofspatial planning 75
2.4 Ashok Bhalotra
From scenario to plan. The role oflandscape design in integrated
scenario studies 91
Chapter 3: Scenarios and rural policy 99
3.1 G. van der Lely
Rural areas in perspective. A policy view. 101
3.2 M. Scheele
Changing factors in land use in the rural environment. Information
gaps and implications for scenario studies 107
3.3 G. Meester
Possible economic scenarios in the CAP and their impact on land
use in Europe 117
x
PART II REGIONAL SOIL AND WATER MANAGEMENT 125
Introduction to Part II 127
Chapter 4: Modelling concepts 129
4.1 E. Priesack and F. Beese
Changing modelling concepts and their relation to scenario studies 131
Chapter 5: Models and scale aspect 141
5.1 P.E. O'Connell
Capabilities and limitations ofregional hydrological models 143
5.2 M.E. Styczen
Regional simulations as a basis for the assessment ofnational
nutrient emissions at various input scenarios in Denmark 157
5.3 W. de Vries, l Kros, lE. Groenenberg, GJ. Reinds, C. van der Salm
and M. Posch
Scenario studies on soil acidification at different spatial scales 169
5.4 l Deelstra and H.O. Eggestad
Runoff, nitrogen loss and scale aspects on agricultural land in
Southern Norway 189
5.5 T. Okruszko, T. Brandyk, A. Byczkowski and J. Kubrak
The soil and water management in the middle basin ofthe Biebrza
River, Poland 195
Chapter 6: Operational decision support tools 201
6.1 S.T. Abdel Gawad, M.A. Abdel Khalek, M.F.R. Smit and
M.S. Abdel Dayem
The use ofthe SIWARE model package in water management
scenario studies, Egypt 203
6.2 R. Adams
The integration ofa physically based hydrological model within a
decision support system to model the hydrological impacts ofland
use change 209
6.3 E. Kaca and L. Labedzki
A water management system for rural areas 215
6.4 F. Wendland and M. Bach
GIS-supported model for the assessment ofthe supra-regional nitrate
pollution ofgroundwater in Germany 221
6.5 K.C. Kersebaum, W. Mirschel and K.-O. Wenkel
Estimation ofregional nitrogen leaching in the Northern-East
German area for different land use scenarios 227
6.6 M.Q. van der Veen and P. van der Voet
The Gelderland ammonia information system for policy analysis 233
XI
Chapter 7: Models and GIS 237
7.1 H.P. Nachtnebel and J. Fuerst
Integration ofa data base, hydrological models and a geographic
information system to assist in regional water management 239
7.2 H. Paaby, J.J. Jensen, P. Kristensen, F. M011er and E. Skop
Reducing nutrient loadings to marine waters. Building up an
integrated assessment model 255
Chapter 8: Model parametrization and data needs 261
8.1 P.A. Finke, J. Bouma, M.C.S. Wopereis and JJ.M. Wosten
Spatial and temporal variability and the data crisis in scenario
studies 263
8.2 AJ. Dolman, P. Kabat, J.A. Elbers, W.G.M. Bastiaanssen and
MJ. Ogink-Hendriks
Regionalization and parameterization ofhydrological processes at
the land surface 281
8.3 J. Kros, EJ. Groenenberg, W. de Vries and C. van der Salm
Uncertainty in long-term predictions offorest soil acidification due
to neglecting seasonal variability 287
8.4 M. van Meirvenne, J. Denaeghel, K. Rajkai, M. Kertesz and
G. Hofman
Spatial extension ofa point water balance model 293
8.5 M. van der Perk and M.F.P. Bierkens
Combined calibration and sensitivity analysis for a water quality
model ofthe Biebrza River, Poland 299
8.6 G. Blom and MJ. van der Vlist
Information requirements and availability for regional environmental
planning in the Netherlands illustrated by the problem of
eutrophication 305
8.7 T.R.E. Thompson, E. Peccol and R.I. Bradley
The future role ofsoil information in planning the rural environment 309
Chapter 9: Case studies on water and nutrient management 315
9.1 Land degradation 317
9.1.1 1. Stolte, CJ. Ritsema, K. Oostindie and P. van Dijk
Measuring and modelling hillslope hydrology in the Loess region of
the Netherlands 317
9.1.2 AJ. Hernandez, 1. Pastor, C. Jimenez, E. Prieto and A. Sanchez
Spatial and temporal variability ofenvironmental factors and nature
management in a rural arkosic landscape 323
9.2 Nutrient management 329
9.2.1 J.P. Dijkstra and MJ.D. Hack - ten Broeke
Simulation ofdifferent management options within integrated arable
farming affecting nitrate leaching 329
