Safety assessment of composite cylinders for gas storage by statistical methods : potential for design optimisation beyond limits of current regulations and standards

387 Pages·2017·18.695 MB·English

by  Mair, Georg W

Georg W. Mair
Safety Assessment
of Composite Cylinders
for Gas Storage by
Statistical Methods
Potential for Design Optimisation Beyond
Limits of Current Regulations and Standards
Safety Assessment of Composite Cylinders for Gas
Storage by Statistical Methods
Georg W. Mair
Safety Assessment
of Composite Cylinders
for Gas Storage by Statistical
Methods
Potential for Design Optimisation Beyond
Limits of Current Regulations and Standards
123
Georg W.Mair
BAM Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung
und-prüfung
Berlin
Germany
ISBN978-3-319-49708-2 ISBN978-3-319-49710-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-49710-5
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017945259
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There is no certainty (safety),
only different degrees of uncertainty
(danger).
Anton Pawlowitsch Tschechow
(1860–1904)
Foreword
Thisbookdescribesoneofthethemes,whichislikearedthreadthroughthelast25
years of the work of Georg W. Mair with pressure vessels (cylinders): the proba-
bilistic view of the safety of gas cylinders made offibre composite materials. This
thread has always been characterized by the close and circuit-like interaction of
three perspectives:thepractical applicationof rules, related extensive research and
the resulting changes to the legislation.
Thepracticalapplicationofregulationsisafixedpartofauthor’sworkattheBAM
Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung (Federal Institute for Materials
Research and Testing in Berlin, Germany), as competent authority in the field of
transport of dangerous goods, which includes “cylinders”. This work repeatedly
leads to surprising test phenomena interpretable as indication of weaknesses of a
designtypeorsometimesofthetestandapprovalrequirements.Thesearchforthe
compensation of theweaknesses inturn isa classical part of theauthor’sresearch.
Thisresearchresultsinformulatingproposalstoamendtherelevantregulations.Asa
follow-up, the author quite regularly presents these proposals in the fields of inter-
national harmonization of technical standards and regulations. Applying these
revisedprovisionsclosesthecircle,tothenextroundofpracticalexperience.
In the context of the cycles of the improvement of regulations, thematically it
wasalwaysalsowithopportunities,suchaschangingregulations,inordertoshape
thefuture.Theseincludethemethodsbywhichinspectionintervalsareset,howthe
monitoringoftheservicelifeistobecarriedoutusingalternativeriskassessmentor
whether new, more efficient storage concepts could be authorized. In the last 10
years,thoughtsontheseissuesinthecontextofthespecificapplicationtopressure
receptacles made of composite materials in the transport of dangerous goods have
ledtoanapproachwithnewproceduresfortestingandsafetyevaluationofstorage
unitsandpressurereceptaclesmadeofcompositematerials.Theseproceduresallow
the safety of a design type to be assessed almost regardless of the applicable tools
prescribed in law and thus also beyond assessment by these rules. This opens up
new areas of design type optimisation and design freedom. Notwithstanding that
some properties but also possible interpretations are in question today.
vii
viii Foreword
Theresultingprocedureoffersthepossibilitytooptimiseforweightandcostby
thelegislatorinanappropriateformtoeachrequiredsafetylevel.Deterministic(i.e.
rule-based)proceduresandprobabilisticprocedures,inparticularforexaminingand
evaluating safety, must be applicable regardless of design type.
For the assessment during an approval process, the approval requirements shall
enable a reliable safety assessment of each design type—even with very little
knowledgeaboutitsdimensioninganddesignprocess.
Inconsequence,theclassictechnicalthemesforcomposites,whicharebasedonthe
design procedure or optimisation, such as the tools of the stress analysis, strength
hypotheses or the art of the production of cylinders are not covered by the infor-
mation given in this book.
The explanations here follow the aim, to offer a probabilistic concept with an
insightintotherelevantbasisforthefurtherdevelopmentinthelaw.Theresultisa
systematicpresentation ofworking andanalyticalsteps,whichareessential forthe
contemplation of the physical properties in the probabilistic sense. The intention
and effect of these steps are mainly phenomenologically presented here by a
selection of the author’s own test and research results. To identify contributions to
thisconcept,theideafora“Logo”wascreatedafewyearsago,andsince2014the
author’s team uses it internationally (Fig. 1).
Thebookisintendedtoexplaintheessentialelementsofaprobabilisticapproval
approachanditsinteraction.Itisintendedtoenableinterestedreaderstofollowthe
concept of a probabilistic approach efficiently. Therefore, in-depth treatment of
issueswillbeavoidediftheyarenotrequiredfortheunderstandingoftheapproach
asawhole.Thisappliesinparticulartosomein-depthdescriptionsofthestatistics
and the micro-mechanics. Those issues can be studied individually by using the
following cited literature.
Even if theclaim ismeaningful toall concerns,so thisishardlyand evenmore
difficulttocreateareadablewording.Thereisstillanumberofquestions,answers
to which such an approach in the future will be made better and more efficiently.
Fig.1 Logo,usedforindicatingtheprobabilisticapproach(PA)bytheauthor
Foreword ix
This includes an improved understanding of the statistical long-term behaviour
of the composite materials, from the component level up into micro-mechanical
models. This also includes the improved applicability of non-destructive testing
procedures on pressure vessels (cylinders) made from composite materials and a
concerted validation of the extensive selection statistical tools.
With a view to the framework in which and for which the findings have been
collected and assessed, I assumes that this book will support the introduction of
hydrogen as a potentially CO -neutral and universally usable energy carrier. It is
2
precisely this area where the search for weight and cost-effective, but particularly
safe gas storage units is under work with high intensity. This is, from the point of
view of the author, a vital principle that must always be taken into account for the
successful introduction of new technical applications and given a special
importance:
In the case of any doubt, for the attractiveness and acceptance of a technology,
safetymustbevaluedmorehighlythaneconomy.
Acknowledgements
Inprincipleweareallcollectivebeings...eventhegreatestgeniuswouldnotgetfarifit
wouldoweeverythingtohisinnerown.
(J.W.v.Goethe)
Particularlywithregardtothecomplexityoftheissue,Iamgratefultoallofthose
who have accompanied me in the search for understanding the properties of
compositepressurevessels(pressurereceptacles andonboardstorage systems)and
itsstatisticalanalysisinthelast25years.Theyhelpedtocreateanapproachwhich,
although its development is currently not finalized, is at least in a state of devel-
opment fit for application.
These were first of all the staff and the students of the institute for airspace
engineering of the Technical University of Berlin. Special thanks to my doctoral
thesis supervisor Prof. Johannes Wiedemann (†2004). He taught me to develop an
understandingofcompositematerialsandtousethegraphicalanalysisfordetection
of complex relationships.
Eachofmyformerandmycurrentcolleaguesinthesection“pressureequipment—
pressure receptacles; onboard storage systems” at BAM Bundesanstalt für
Materialforschungund-prüfungcontributedhisparttothecontentshownhere.This
addressestolotofscientists,whohavegivenhintsoncertaineffectsandondeficits
concerning interpretation and understanding. But in addition, those who in the test
practice have applied the procedures developed by me or have had to evaluate the
respectiveresults,haveabigshareinthedevelopmentoftheprobabilisticapproach
forsafetyassessmentofcompositecylinders.
These colleagues are as follows: Dr. Stefan Anders, Eric Duffner, Christian
Gregor, Martin Hoffmann, Sebastian John, André Klauke, Markus Lau, Christian
Lehr,StephanLenz,HeinzMacziewski,Hans-JörgMüller,AndreasNeudecker,Dr.
Pavel Novak,Dr.Pascal Pöschko, HerbertSaul, Irene Scholz, AndréSchoppa,Dr.
Thorsten Schönfelder, Dr. Jost Sonnenberg, Manfred Spode, Dr. Michael Schulz
and Mariusz Szczepaniak. I cannot fail to mention my former colleague Dr. habil.
JürgenBohse,whoessentiallyinfluencedmyunderstandingforcompositematerials
by his interpretation of results from the acoustic emission analysis.
xi
xii Acknowledgements
I would like to highlight two other colleagues. With regard to the English
version of the book, I thank Dr. Florian Scherer. Without his initial support in
draftingcontributionstoEnglishjournalsandpreliminaryversionsofafewsections
of this book, I would not have decided in favour of an English edition of this
originally German book1. I thank Dr. Ben Becker. He computed the Monte-Carlo
simulations,whicharepresentedheremoreextensivelythanintheGermanversion
of this book.
For the English edition, I am indebted to Dr. Chris Jubb, who despite his
extensiveactivitiesincludingthechairmanshipofISOTC58,GasCylinders,spent
a considerable amount of time reviewing the book. Dr. Jubb’s review has ensured
thatthekeyissues,whicharenolesscomplexinEnglishthanoriginallyexpressed
in German, are clearly communicated.
Mr. Bruno Cusset provided the French terms in the Glossary.
I also wish to thank the president and the steering board of the BAM
BundesanstaltfürMaterialforschungund—prüfung.Theyprovidedthesettingfora
long-term research on the presented issues. This gratitude is also addressed to my
bosses,whodecidedinfavourofalargeinvestmentmorethan15yearsago.Bythis
they created the conditions for the elaboration of the extensive test results and
validation of the concept for safety assessment shown here.
Lastbutnotleast,Ithankthesponsorsofseveralresearchprojects.Theprojects
mostimportantfortheprobabilisticapproachwere“StorHy”(frameworkprogram
FP 6), “INGAS” (FP 7), “HyComp” (FP7), “HyCube” (KIC: knowledge and
innovation communities) on European level and German projects like “Long-term
behaviour” (BMVI: German ministry for transport) and “Cryo-Code” (NOW:
nationalorganizationhydrogen).Thepartnersinvolvedintheseprojectscontributed
in critical and frank discussions to several aspects of the probabilistic approach
(PA). This way they improved the presentation of a lot of aspects, and in conse-
quence the book in total.
Thegreatestthanksareduetomywifeandmychildren.Theyhavehadalotof
patiencewithmeformanyyears,especiallyintheyearsoffinalizingthemanuscript
fortheGermanbookandlaterforthisrevisedandextendedEnglisheditioninyour
hands.
Theygavemethefreedomthatisnecessarytoworkconsistentlyonasubjectfor
many years and thus to create the present book.
1MairGW(2016)SicherheitsbewertungvonComposite-Druckgasbehältern-Potentialstatistischer
MethodenjenseitsaktuellerVorschriften.Springer-Verlag,Berlin