Table Of ContentGlobal Power Shift
Sarah Kirchberger
Svenja Sinjen
Nils Wörmer Editors
Russia-China
Relations
Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals?
Global Power Shift
SeriesEditor
XuewuGu,CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Bonn,Germany
AdvisoryEditors
G.JohnIkenberry,PrincetonUniversity,Princeton,NJ,USA
CanrongJin,RenminUniversityofBeijing,Beijing,China
SrikanthKondapalli,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,NewDelhi,India
BeateNeuss,ChemnitzUniversityofTechnology,Chemnitz,Germany
CarlaNorrlof,UniversityofToronto,Toronto,Canada
DingliShen,FudanUniversity,Shanghai,China
KazuhikoTogo,KyotoSanyoUniversity,Tokyo,Japan
RobertoZoboli,CatholicUniversityofMilan,Milano,Italy
ManagingEditor
Hendrik W. Ohnesorge, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn,
Germany
Ampleempiricalevidencepointstorecentpowershiftsinmultipleareasofinterna-
tionalrelationstakingplacebetweenindustrializedcountriesandemergingpowers,
as well as between states and non-state actors. However, there is a dearth of
theoretical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for
coherent approaches to understand and measure the transformation. The central
issues to be addressed include theoretical questions and empirical puzzles: How
can studies of global power shift and the rise of ‘emerging powers’ benefit from
existingtheories,andwhichalternativeaspectsandtheoreticalapproachesmightbe
suitable?Howcanthemeanings,perceptions,dynamics,andconsequencesofglobal
power shift be determined and assessed? This edited series will include highly
innovative research on these topics. It aims to bring together scholars from all
major world regions as well as different disciplines, including political science,
economicsandhumangeography.Theoverallaimistodiscussandpossiblyblend
their different approaches and provide new frameworks for understanding global
affairsandthegovernanceofglobalpowershifts.
Alltitlesinthisseriesarepeer-reviewed.
* * *
ThisbookseriesisindexedinScopus.
(cid:129) (cid:129)
Sarah Kirchberger Svenja Sinjen Nils Wörmer
Editors
Russia-China Relations
Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals?
Editors
SarahKirchberger SvenjaSinjen
InstituteforSecurityPolicyatKiel FoundationforScience&Democracy(SWuD)
University(ISPK) Kiel,Germany
Kiel,Germany
NilsWörmer
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Berlin,Germany
ISSN2198-7343 ISSN2198-7351 (electronic)
GlobalPowerShift
ISBN978-3-030-97011-6 ISBN978-3-030-97012-3 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97012-3
FundingInformation:Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s)2022.Thisbookisanopenaccesspublication.
OpenAccessThisbookislicensedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0International
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In memoriam
Hannes Adomeit
(1942–2022)
Acknowledgments
This volume is the outcome of a 2-year research process in which several dozen
people from all over the globe were involved in some form or other, and that took
placelargelyduringaglobalpandemic.Apublicationprojectofthistypetypically
resemblesamarathonthatendsinasprint,andthiswasnoexception.Therefore,the
editors areextremelygratefultoeachandeverytypeofcontributiontothisproject
thattheyreceivedalongtheway,whetherlargeorsmall,andwhatfollowsbelowis
bynomeansanexhaustivelisting.
Aboveall,wewouldliketothankthecontributorsofthisvolume,whowereallin
somewayorotherdetrimentallyaffectedbythepandemic—someinarathersevere
way—and yet, nonetheless, found the time to contribute their extremely valuable
knowledgeandenergytothisproject.Wearehugelygratefultothemforprioritizing
this project among the manifold obligations and challenges they faced along the
way,andhopeverymuchthattheyarepleasedwiththeoutcome.
SvenjaSinjenofSWuDandSarahKirchbergerofISPKareespeciallygratefulto
the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) for its extremely generous financial and
intellectual support of their project idea from mid-2019. KAS provided the major
portion of the funding for an expert in-person workshop in Berlin in mid-January
2020andhostedtwofurtherin-personevents,oneinBerlinandanotherworkshopin
Brussels, all of which were decisive for sharpening the research agenda of this
project.KASalsoprovidedseveralactiveparticipantstotheworkshopdiscussions,
includingseveralmoderators,andalsoverygenerouslyfundedtheproductionofthis
volumeasanopen-accesspublication.AtKAS,theeditorswouldparticularlyliketo
thank Daniela Braun for her constant, enthusiastic support of this research project
rightfromtheoutset,aswellasduringtheworkshopinBerlininJanuary2020and
during the publication process. Further KAS colleagues who collaborated with us
during this process include Frank Priess, Philipp Dienstbier, Thomas Yoshimura,
and David Merkle, who all attended and contributed to the Berlin workshop, and
Denis Schrey and Susanne Conrad of the KAS Brussels office who hosted the
Brusselsworkshop. Wealsoowe Elisabeth BaueroftheKASOfficefor theBaltic
statesmanythanksforherhelpinidentifyinginterestingexperts.Thevariousforms
vii
viii Acknowledgments
ofsupportfromKAS,whetherfinancial,organizational,orintermsofexpertinput
andcontent,weretrulyinvaluableforthesuccessofthisproject.
At SWuD, we are indebted in particular to Astrid Kuhn, whose support of this
researchaspartoftheSWuD’s“GlobalTransformation&GermanForeignPolicy”
projectwasinstrumentalinallowingustogenerateaninitialconceptfortheresearch
agenda and follow it through. We gratefully acknowledge the SWuD funding we
received for the 2020 Berlin workshop. At ISPK, the editors would like to thank
Stefan Hansen for his equally decisive support of this research project and the
fundingwereceivedinsupportofthepublicationprocess.
The editors are especially grateful to all the Russia, China, and security experts
who participated in various roles during the research of this project, whether as
discussion partners, workshop presenters, peer reviewers, or sparring partners in
heated discussions. We particularly benefited from our interactions with Heinrich
Brauss, Mathieu Duchâtel, Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, Phillip Karber, Holger
Mey, Hanna Katharina Müller, and Timothy Reilly, and are grateful for their
extremelyvaluableinput.
Itiswithgreatsadnessthatweacknowledgethedebttoourcontributor,advisor,
andcollaboratorHannesAdomeitwhoonApril25,2022,passedawayafterabrief
illness.HehadtakenpartalreadyinourfirstprojectworkshopinJanuary2020,and
besidespenningthe openingchapter for this volume also served as a reviewer and
commentator.Wewereprivilegedtoworksocloselywithhimduringthepasttwo
years, are immensely grateful for all his expert contributions to our project, and
mourn the loss of a great scholar and dear colleague whose clearsighted and
uncorruptibleanalyseswillbesorelymissed,especiallyintimessuchasthese.
Wewouldalsoliketothankthemanyofficialsfromseveraldifferentnationswho
participated in our related Berlin and Brussels workshops and offered us their
questions,observations,andremarks. All this inputhelped ustorefinetheagenda,
sharpen our questions, shape our outlook, and ultimately allowed us to form some
conclusionsthathopefullyhavevaluefortheirownwork.
Relatedto theproductionof this volume, atSpringer Nature, Johannes Glaeser,
Niko Chtouris, and Parthiban Kannan were enthusiastic yet patient and incredibly
helpful supporters of this publication project. We kindly thank the editors of the
GlobalPowerShiftseriesatSpringerforacceptingthisvolumeaspartoftheirseries.
Wewouldalsoliketoofferourthankstothegroupofpeerreviewerswhohave
workedwithusonhelpingtheauthorsrefinethecontributionsforthisvolume.Steen
Gilbertsonhasdoneafantasticjobofcopyeditingthecontributions,ofwhichonlya
minoritywerewrittenbyEnglishnativespeakers.StellaKimatISPKhasrendered
usinvaluableeditorialassistanceandwatchedoverouradherencetothestyleguide.
Lastly,theeditorswouldliketothanktheirfamiliesandfriendsfortheirconstant
patienceandsupportthroughoutthepasttwoyears.Jugglingfamilyobligationswith
workwasparticularlychallengingduringthetimesoflockdown,andhasdemanded
unprecedentedadaptabilityfromeveryone.Wearethereforegratefulforallthehelp
andunderstandingwereceivedalongtheway.
Acknowledgments ix
We submitted this volume to the printers in late 2021. While we now complete
thefinalproofreadingstageinmid-April2022,theRussianinvasionofUkrainethat
beganonFebruary24,2022,isstillongoinganditsoutcomeuncertain.Muchasthis
Russian war of aggression and the ensuing Western sanctions have dramatically
changedthesecuritylandscapeofEurope,andasmuchasthecourseofthiswarwill
provetobeanimportanttestcaseregardingthedepthoftheSino-Russianstrategic
partnership, only minor changes to our text were still possible at this stage of the
publication process, with only cursory and preliminary remarks inserted here and
there.Thereadersofourvolumearekindlyaskedtobearthisinmind.
Contents
Introduction:AnalyzingtheShiftsinSino-RussianStrategic
CooperationSince2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
SarahKirchberger,SvenjaSinjen,andNilsWörmer
PartI MutualPerceptionsandNarratives
Russia’sStrategicOutlookandPolicies:WhatRoleforChina?. . . . . . . 17
HannesAdomeit
ImperialistMaster,ComradeinArms,Foe,Partner,andNow
Ally?China’sChangingViewsofRussia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
JoIngeBekkevold
DomesticPolitics:AForgottenFactorintheRussian-Chinese
Relationship. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
MarcinKaczmarski
PartII TheMilitaryDimensionofSino-RussianCooperation:Case
Studies
Russian-ChineseMilitary-TechnologicalCooperationandthe
UkrainianFactor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
SarahKirchberger
Russia-ChinaNavalPartnershipandItsSignificance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
AlexandreSheldon-Duplaix
ChineseandRussianMilitaryModernizationandtheFourth
IndustrialRevolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
RichardA.BitzingerandMichaelRaska
China-RussiaCooperationinNuclearDeterrence. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 141
BrianG.Carlson
xi
