Rural Community Vulnerability to Food Security Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan

114 Pages·2011·5.3 MB·English

by  Rozbih Mihran

Rural Community Vulnerability to Food Security Impacts of
Climate Change in Afghanistan
Evidence from Balkh, Herat, and Nangarhar Provinces

by
Rozbih Mihran

A thesis
presented to the University of Waterloo
in fulfillment of the
thesis requirement for the degree of
Master of Environmental Studies
in
Environment and Resource Studies

Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2011

© Rozbih Mihran 2011
Author’s Declaration
I
 hereby
 declare
 that
 I
 am
 the
 sole
 author
 of
 this
 thesis.
 This
 is
 a
 true
 copy
 of
 the

thesis,
 including
 any
 required
 final
 revisions,
 as
 accepted
 by
 my
 examiners.

I
 understand
 that
 my
 thesis
 may
 be
 made
 electronically
 available
 to
 the
 public.

Rozbih
 Mihran

  ii
Abstract

Climate change is taking its toll on Afghanistan. Warming temperatures and decreasing
precipitation levels over the last fifty years have led to innumerable weather anomalies
causing droughts, floods, unseasonal precipitation, falling ground water tables,
desertification, and loss of biodiversity. While it is projected that further change in
climatic conditions will take place over the coming decades, the impacts of these
environmental stresses on the living conditions and livelihoods of Afghans have already
been significant and adverse. Among all population groups, rural communities in
Afghanistan are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their
strong dependence on agriculture for living.

This exploratory research used a qualitative methodology to investigate and document
firsthand the vulnerability of the rural communities to climate change impacts in the
context of food security in Afghanistan. To this end, three villages in Balkh, Herat, and
Nangarhar provinces were studied for their exposure to climate change and the
communities’ adaptive capacity to cope with and avert the climate-related stresses.
Additional key informant interviews were conducted to learn about similar issues in other
rural regions of the country.

The study found that climate change has substantially contributed to increased food
insecurity in the rural communities throughout Afghanistan over the last two decades and
that the rural households are facing real challenges to generate income from agricultural
activities while taking desperate measures to cope with and adapt to climatic conditions.

  iii
Acknowledgements

I am grateful to my supervisors, Saeed Parto and Jim Robinson, for their guidance and
support. Without Saeed’s help, this work would not have existed. During the difficult
times, which were many, he accommodated me and gave excellent advice about my
research as well as other matters at hand. Thank you Saeed. Jim has helped and supported
me since the beginning of my studies at the University of Waterloo. I have learned a lot
from working and studying with him. Thank you Jim. Thanks to Jennifer Clapp for sitting
on my committee and providing valuable comments.

Many thanks go to my parents; Said Ahmad Mehran and Aziza Ahmady Mehran; my
sisters, Weeda, Leeda, and Yalda; my special person, Shakeela; and my friends, Shoaib,
Kais and Ali. I am very grateful to have you in my life. Your constant and generous
support encourages me and keeps me going.

Special thanks to APPRO without whose support I could not have carried out this
research. As my host organization, it generously accommodated my work and provided
me the research guidance I needed, financial support, office space and travel
accommodation, full access to use its data, research personnel, and administrative
support. I would like to thank APPRO’s field research officers, Nafas Gul Karimi,
Sharifa Ibrahimkhil, Hakim Niazmand, Najmudin Najm, Laila Karimyar, Ruhullah
Amiri, and Zarmina Khurami for their tireless work under difficult conditions. Their
work made this research possible.

  iv
I dedicate this work to my parents.

  v
Table of Contents

List of Figures.................................................................................................................viii
List of Tables....................................................................................................................ix
List of Abbreviations........................................................................................................x
Introduction to the Study.................................................................................................1
Research Purpose.......................................................................................................................2
Research Questions....................................................................................................................2
Objectives....................................................................................................................................2
Methodology...............................................................................................................................3
Limitations..................................................................................................................................4
Literature Review and Conceptual Framework............................................................6
Climate Change and Its Impacts..............................................................................................6
Climate Change and Food Security..........................................................................................8
Conceptual Framework: Climate Change, Vulnerability and Food Security....................13
Introduction to Climate Change and Food Security in Afghanistan.........................17
Climate Change in Afghanistan: Past Trends and Future Projections..............................18
Food Security in Afghanistan..................................................................................................24
Some of the Major Programs and Projects in Agriculture and Food Security..................34
Findings from the Interviews and Study Sites.............................................................39
Selection of Key Informants and Sites...................................................................................39
Findings.....................................................................................................................................40
Balkh.........................................................................................................................................41
Herat..........................................................................................................................................49
Nangarhar.................................................................................................................................55
Discussion........................................................................................................................64
Exposure to Climate Change..................................................................................................64
Adaptive Capacity....................................................................................................................65
Vulnerability and Food Insecurity.........................................................................................69
Recommendations...........................................................................................................75
References………………………………………………………………………………………………………….79

  vi
Appendices.......................................................................................................................87
Appendix I: Field research questions.....................................................................................88
Appendix II: List of Key Informant Interviews....................................................................93
Appendix III: List of Focus Group Discussions Participants..............................................94
Appendix IV: Case Study Selection........................................................................................97

  vii
List of Figures
Figure 1. Analytical Framework for Vulnerability Assessment …………………... 14
Figure 2. Proposed Conceptual Framework for Studying Vulnerability to Climate Change
in the Context of Food Security …………………………………………………… 15
Figure 3. Temperature Change Projections in Afghanistan Under SRES A2 Scenario for
2030, 2060, and 2090 ……………………………………………………………... 19
Figure 4. Rainfall Change (%) Under SRES A2 Scenario for 2030, 2060,
and 2090 …………………………………………………………………………... 20
Figure 5. Projected Temperature and Rainfall Change in Balkh, Herat, and Nangarhar
Provinces ………………………………………………………………………….. 20
Figure 6. Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change ………………………………... 21
Figure 7. Main Reason for Leaving Land Fallow: (a) Irrigated Land, (b) Rain-fed Land
(%) ………………………………………………………………………………… 26
Figure 8. Food Consumption Groups in 2006 and 2008 ………………………….. 30
Figure 9. Breakdown of Diet Across Different Food Consumption Groups ……… 31
Figure 10. Local Wheat Retail Market Prices by Region ………………………..... 31
Figure 11. Local Food Prices in Balkh, Herat, and Nangarhar …………………… 32
Figure 12. Balkh Districts (top) and Rural Population Density (bottom)………….. 41
Figure 13. Herat Districts (top) and Rural Population Density (bottom) …………. 49
Figure 14. Nangarhar Districts (top) and Rural Population Density (bottom) ……. 56

  viii
List of Tables
Table 1. Afghanistan’s Food Balance Sheet for 2009 (000 tons)….. …………….. 24
Table 2. Households and Livestock (%)….……………………………………….. 25
Table 3. Weighting Matrix for Prioritizing Vulnerable Sectors in Afghanistan ….. 28
Table 4. Ability to Satisfy Food Needs (%)……………………………………….. 28

  ix
List of Abbreviations
ADB Asian Development Bank
ANDMA Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority
ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy
APPRO Afghanistan Public Policy Research Organization
CC Climate Change
CDC Community Development Council
CHA Coordination for Humanitarian Assistance
CRS Catholic Relief Services
CSO Central Statistics Office
DACAAR Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees
DAI Development Alternative Inc.
EC European Commission
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FEWSNET USAID Famine Early Warning System
FS Food Security
GAIN The Greening of Afghanistan Initiative
GEF Global Environmental Facility
GMOs Genetically Modified Organism
HLP Horticulture and Livestock Project
ICARDA International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas
IFHOPE International Foundation of Hope
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
INGO International Nongovernmental Organization
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRD International Relief and Development Inc.
MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock

  x