Table Of ContentROBERTSONIAN ECONOMICS
By the same author
European Monetary Integration (with P. Coffey)
Currency Areas: Theory and Practice (with G. E. J. Dennis)
ROBERTSONIAN
ECONOMICS
An Examination of the Work of
Sir D. H. Robertson on
Industrial Fluctuation
John R. Presley, B.A., Ph.D.
M
© John R. Presley 1978
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1978 978-0-333-21537-1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
without permission
First published 1979 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
London and Basingstoke
Associated companies in Delhi
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Typeset in Great Britain by
SANTYPE LTD, SALISBURY
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Presley, John Ralph
Robertsonian economics
I. Robertson, Sir Dennis Holme
I. Title
330.1 HBI03.Rj
ISBN 978-1-349-03241-9 ISBN 978-1-349-03239-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-03239-6
This book is sold subject
to the standard conditions
of the Net Book Agreement
Especially for Barbara, but also for
Catherine and Joanne
Contents
Preface ix
Introduction 1
PART I-THE THEORY OF INDUSTRIAL
FLUCTUATION
Background to a Study of Industrial Fluctuation in 1915 9
2 The Nature of the Industrial Fluctuation and the Robert-
sonian Methodological Approach 18
3 The Robertsonian Theory of Industrial Fluctuation -An
Outline 23
4 The Causes of the Upturn 32
5 The Theory of Crisis - From Boom to Recession 47
6 Agricultural Forces in the Trade Cycle 52
7 Robertson and the Alternative Theories of Industrial Fluc
tuation 59
PART II-SAVING AND INVESTMENT IN THE TRADE
CYCLE
Introduction 73
2 Background to the Robertson-Keynes Debate 75
3 Saving in the Cycle: The Robertsonian Approach in the Study 92
VII
viii Robertsonian Economics
4 Robertson on Saving (1918-40) 97
5 Critical Comment on the Forced Saving Thesis 117
6 Saving in the Cycle 121
7 The Robertsonian Theory of Interest 132
8 Origins of the Robertsonian Approach to the Theory of
Interest 148
9 Natural and Market Rates of Interest and the Trade Cycle 152
10 Saving, Investment and the Multiplier (1936 and after) 165
11 Robertson and the Liquidity Preference Theory of Interest 177
12 Loanable Funds Versus Liquidity Preference-The Hicks-
Hansen Framework 186
13 Some Observations upon the Similarity of Keynes' and
Robertson's Work 216
14 The Value of Money 222
PART III-THEORY AND POLICY-SOME
CONCLUSIONS
Economic Policy and the Trade Cycle 239
2 Robertson and the Price Level 255
Notes 263
Bibliography of the Writings of Dennis Holme Robertson 310
Index 316
Preface
I have such a vast number of acknowledgements to make that
I hardly know where to begin. This study has taken five years
to complete and has involved my being in contact with a wide
variety of economists, not only over the length and breadth of
the United Kingdom, but on both sides of the Atlantic.
My greatest debt is to Professor S. R. Dennison, who has allowed
me access to the private papers and correspondence of Sir Dennis
Holme Robertson, and has guided and advised me throughout
this period. I have enjoyed immensely my visits to Hull University
and am very thankful for the energy he has devoted to my work
during a period when his time has been a very precious commodity.
The initial encouragement to undertake this work came from
three people in particular-Professor R. D. C. Black, Professor
D. P. O'Brien and Professor D. Swann. I am very grateful to
them. Professor D. P. O'Brien has continued to provide copious
and constructive comments upon my drafts throughout. Professor
D. Swann has remained my Head of Department and has succeeded
in giving me all the assistance possible at Loughborough University.
I also wish to thank Dr. T. Weyman-Jones of Loughborough
University for his valuable help in giving me a different perspective
of certain parts of the work, M. Danes, a fellow student of
'Robertsonian Economics' for freely expressing his views and pro
viding much assistance and Professor E. G. Davis of Carleton
University for giving me an insight into R. G. Hawtrey's work.
My gratitude goes to all those who have talked and corresponded
IX
X Robertsonian Economics
with me on this project, in particular to A. Bevan, Professor
A. W. Coats, P. Coffey, A. Dick, Professor M. Friedman, Sir
J. R. Hicks, Professor D. Patinkin, Lord Robbins, S. Shenoy,
Professor 0. Steinger, Dr. E. Owen Smith, Professor B. Tew,
Professor T. Wilson, and Professor J. N. Wolfe. Many people
have allowed me to utilise and to quote from correspondence.
In this respect I am grateful to Sir J. R. Hicks, Professor D.
Patinkin, Professor T. Wilson and Sir Geoffrey Keynes.
Extracts from this book were presented at seminars in various
places. I particularly benefitted from seminars given at the History
of Economic Thought Conference at Durham University in 1975,
at the Department of Economics, Lancaster University in March
1977, and from a staff seminar at Loughborough University in
March 1977. My thanks go to all the members of these seminars.
My undergraduate days were spent at Lancaster University; I
was put through my paces by the late Professor P. W. S. Andrews,
Professor A. Macbean, J. Taylor, J. Rhodes, D. Pearce, A. Airth
and G. McGregor-Reid. I will always remain in their debt for
the encouragement they gave me, and the enthusiasm they showed
economics. I could not have wished for a better baptism to
the subject.
I have been fortunate to receive financial assistance during my
study of Robertson's work. The Wincott Foundation put me on
my feet, and the Social Science Research Council kept me there
over the last two years. This enabled me to gain access to a
large volume of research material which I would otherwise have
been unable to obtain. It also meant that I could travel around
the United Kingdom in search of information. Without this help
the study would have been substantially weakened, and I therefore
thank my benefactors for their generosity.
A study of this kind invariably puts many strains upon library
staff. It never ceases to amaze me how librarians can remain
so patient when faced with a borrower who cannot remember,
or does not have, the full reference for a book or an article.
I have received great patience and help from a number of libraries;
in particular I wish to thank the library staffs of Loughborough
University, the Marshall Library and King's College Library, Cam
bridge, Newcastle University, Hull University, Sheffield University
and the London School of Economics. My special thanks goes
to Nottingham University Library which was perhaps burdened
more than most by my enquiries. The Department of Economics
