Risk Nexus

44 Pages·2015·3.38 MB·English

Risk Nexus
Urgent case for recovery: what we can learn
from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal
Contents
Foreword 3
Executive summary 4
Introduction 6
Overview 7
Section 1: Flooding in the Karnali Basin, Nepal 9
Genesis of the 2014 Karnali fl oods 11
Section 2: Socio-economic disaster landscape 14
Risk and vulnerability 16
Constraints to reducing risk and vulnerability 17
External involvement 17
Section 3: What happened 18
Early warning 19
Impacts 20
Response 20
Recovery/Rehabilitation 24
Section 4: Key insights 25
Section 5: Recommendations 30
Section 6: Conclusions 34
Nepal context 35
Regional context 35
Global context 35
References 37
Interviewees 39
Acknowledgements 41
List of acronyms and defi nitions 42
As part of Zurich’s fl ood resilience program, the post event review capability (PERC)
provides research and independent reviews of large fl ood events. It seeks to answer
questions related to aspects of fl ood resilience, fl ood risk management and
catastrophe intervention. It looks at what has worked well (identifying best practice)
and opportunities for further improvements.
This PERC analysis was written by ISET International, ISET-Nepal, Practical Action
Nepal and Zurich. It uses a combination of two complementary conceptual
frameworks: the ISET Climate Resilience Framework (http://training.i-s-e-t.org)
and the Zurich fl ood resilience alliance framework (https://www.zurich.com/en/
corporate-responsibility/fl ood-resilience).
Cover: Villagers evacuating during fl ooding in Rajapur.
2 Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal
Foreword
The publication of this report coincides with a large relief
effort underway in Nepal following the devastating
earthquake that struck the country in April, followed by a
serious aftershock in May. We recognize the huge toll these
events have taken on this country where many live in poverty.
A crisis often affects especially the poorest, hitting them the
hardest. In particular, in rural environments, the very minimal
infrastructure means that loss of a road, bridge or cell tower
can have devastating impacts on lives and livelihoods. These
communities now face an arduous task to recover. Rebuilding
will take years and perhaps decades.
But even as recovery begins, some communities Studies such as ‘From Risk to Resilience’ by
Ajaya Mani Dixit
in Nepal might be facing a new threat: the the ISET network, ‘Ecosystem Based Climate
General Secretary, ISET Nepal
monsoon season, and the potential for deadly Adaptation Planning at the Sub-watershed Level
fl oods. This study focuses on fi ndings and of Panchase Mountain Ecological Region Nepal’
observations specifi cally related to some of the by ISET-Nepal, and ‘Understanding Disaster
worst fl ooding in recent memory that struck Management in Practice with Reference to Nepal’
Karnali and Babai River basins in August 2014. by Practical Action highlight the importance
Based on what we learned, we have identifi ed going beyond just mitigation as a means to
entry points where action can be taken to reduce disaster risk. Rather, adaptation needs
build human and organizational capacities, to be included in the frame of disaster risk
structure institutions, and increase the resilience reduction and mainstreamed into development.
of critical systems. There is much potential
We hope that the lessons learned and
for improvement.
recommendations derived from this study can
It is now doubly important to follow through be applied not only nationally, but globally. We
after the most recent quake disaster in Nepal. do not need to wait for major (fl ood) events to
But our efforts extend beyond improving overall catalyze action. We can save lives, reduce losses
disaster resilience in a single country. Helping to and bring communities together through such
make communities more resilient, no matter means, hopefully making them less dependent
where, gets at the heart of the solution. We on oft-times unpredictable sources of aid and
believe a wider disaster management system can well-meant charity that, however, might only
mitigate and perhaps even help to avoid some of restore the status quo.
the worst impacts of particular natural events.
We would especially like to thank the project
Since 2013, the Zurich fl ood resilience alliance team of ISET International, ISET-Nepal, and
has developed a number of post event review Practical Action Nepal, supported by the Zurich
Robert Gremli capability (PERC) reports. Based on earlier team. We also want to thank all the others who
Global Chief Risk Engineering PERC studies about fl oods in central, northern willingly contributed and made it possible to
Offi cer, Zurich and eastern Europe and a report by the produce this report. If it can in any way help to
Institute for Social and Environmental speed recovery in Nepal, and encourage changes
Transition-International (ISET-International), that can save lives and protect communities in
‘Floods in Boulder: A Study on Resilience’, we that country and elsewhere, it will have served
fi nd that a global narrative is emerging, with its purpose.
similar points of failure, successes and
capacities during fl oods across geographical,
social, political and economic contexts.
Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal 3
Executive summary
In mid-August 2014, three days of torrential monsoon rainfall
led to the widespread Karnali fl oods in Western Nepal.
The fl oods killed 222 people and had a major impact on
120,000 others, damaging infrastructure and property
and displacing households.
What happened during these fl oods is not The new early warning systems
a new story, nor is it a story that is limited
saved lives
to the developing world. Previous Zurich
post event review capability (PERC) reports Beginning in 2008 Practical Action worked with
highlighted similar issues in Europe and so did local, regional and national stakeholders to
ISET-International in the U.S. Flood resilience, implement early warning systems on both the
and disaster resilience in general, are not only Karnali and Babai Rivers. In spite of complications
about resource and economic capacity. and points of failure, these systems were
Rather, there are social and institutional barriers instrumental in saving lives and assets during
that restrict resilience. Better planning and the 2014 fl oods. There is a clear opportunity
regulatory processes and more equitable to strengthen and scale up these systems
policies are needed. Nations across the globe country-wide.
need to improve their resilience to potential
hazards by learning from past disasters. Local response was effective
Focusing on the disaster management Government and INGO response was slow and
landscape as a whole – disaster risk reduction, poorly coordinated. Political pressure complicated
preparedness, response and recovery – this post response and benefi ciary selection, ultimately
event review examines the Karnali and Babai leaving the most vulnerable behind. Community
Rivers in the area of Nepal affected by the fl oods. Disaster Management Committees (CDMCs)
We examine the events, impacts, responses, were instrumental in responding to community
and recovery to understand what happened, needs amid the chaos and confusion of external
what could have been done differently, and response, helping organize and distribute relief,
where there are opportunities for action to assisting district security personnel with search
reduce future fl ood risk. and rescue, and conducting health campaigns
to minimize the spread of diseases.
Worst event ever recorded
Recovery support has been minimal
In 24 hours, nearly 500 mm of rain fell across
the plains and foothills. Rivers rose rapidly in The Nepali government has largely focused
the middle of the night. Flooding was perhaps on public infrastructure in its recovery efforts:
a one-in-1,000 year event and exceeded the rebuilding roads and bridges, and repairing and
previous largest fl ood by nearly a meter. upgrading river control and irrigation systems.
Downstream fl ooding was intense. Floodwaters Seven months after the fl ood, most recovery
fl owed over banks, broke embankments, and activities had not yet begun. Most people have
fl ooded irrigation canals. Floodwaters came from essentially been left to recover on their own.
unexpected directions, inundating previously Households must primarily rely on support from
safe areas and taking residents by surprise. friends and family, and on remittances sent
by relatives who migrate to India and other
countries for seasonal labor.
4 Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal
The protection systems are disaster. Yet there is an opportunity to make
well-informed choices. At the same time, there
increasing risk
is immense political and fi nancial pressure on
Flood protection systems currently reduce Nepal, pressure only intensifi ed by the recent
short-term risk while increasing long-term risk. earthquake. And it is evident that there is
Embankments are being designed without substantial capacity at the local level to prepare
considering the rate at which sediment is for, and address disasters. The fastest way to
deposited, safe failure modes, or the increasing strengthen the national disaster management
trend in rainfall intensities observed over the system would be to harness and scale up these
past two decades. They are also designed in local capacities.
ways that will attract development and with
The global context
little thought given to maintenance, control, and
lifecycle management. Embankment design
Although developed nations have more
combined with poor land use regulations will
resources at their disposal than developing
increase development adjacent to embankments
nations, both have similar gaps in their
and exacerbate long-term fl ood risk.
resilience. This suggests that there are social
and institutional barriers – including perception
The national disaster management
of risk, regulatory processes, and systemic
system needs improvement discrimination – which restrict resilience.
In poorer cities and countries, social and
Nepal’s disaster management system, on the
institutional changes can be made without
whole, has many shortcomings. This increases
great economic input. For wealthier cities and
the dangers posed by natural events, including
countries, this serves as a reminder that resource
earthquakes and fl oods. In the Karnali fl oods,
and economic capacity is not everything.
there was poor coordination across and within
Money alone cannot prevent a hazard from
state agencies and government departments.
becoming a disaster. Better planning and
Systems designed to streamline response broke
regulatory processes, and more equitable
down and supplies were delayed in reaching
policies are needed. While the Karnali fl oods
people. News reports coming out about the
could have been less devastating in a nation
April 25 and May 12, 2015 earthquakes clearly
more developed than Nepal, this does not
reveal that the responses currently underway in
change the fact that nations need to improve
Nepal are not much different from those during
their resilience to potential hazards. In an
the Karnali fl oods (except on a much larger
increasingly globalized world, it is important
scale) in 2014. We anticipate that past failures
to analyze disasters to learn important lessons
will be repeated in managing the earthquake
on where and how resilience can be built.
Floodwaters in Rajapur
Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal 5
Introduction
The World Bank (2005) has classifi ed Nepal as one of the
global ‘hot-spots’ for natural hazards. Sharp contrasts in
physiography and climate along with geologically unstable,
steep and rugged mountain topography and intense
monsoon rainfall make the country prone to fl oods,
landslides, soil erosion and earthquakes.*
Disasters cost the government about six percent disaster risk reduction, preparedness, response
of its annual development expenditure (MoHA, and recovery,1 we evaluate the fl ood events,
2010). Floods are among the most recurrent impacts, response and recovery to understand
and devastating of these disasters, having been what happened, what could have been done
responsible for USD 130 million in losses differently, and opportunities for action.
between 2001 and 2008 and nearly one-third
It must be noted that the Karnali Basin is more
of disaster-related deaths in Nepal (DWIDP,
advanced than most regions in Nepal in terms
2011; MoHA, 2010).
of its disaster preparedness. Substantial NGO
In this report we deconstruct the Karnali Floods intervention in the basin has included setting
of August 2014 and identify opportunities for up early warning systems (EWS), community
improving fl ood risk and disaster management disaster management committees (CDMCs)
as a whole in Nepal. It may seem odd that we and other formal disaster preparedness
are focusing on fl oods in light of the recent, structures; these exist in combination here but
devastating earthquakes in Nepal. But increased not necessarily elsewhere in Nepal. It is likely
fl ood risk, greater vulnerability and tight that a similar fl ood elsewhere in the country
resources post-earthquake make it extremely might have had a different and potentially more
important that Nepal builds back in ways that severe impact.
are well-focused, better and more resilient.
Section 1 provides a review of the weather
Continuous monsoon rainfall across the foothills events responsible for the fl oods in August
of western Nepal in from August 14-16, 2014 2014. A description of the socio-economic
led to widespread fl ooding of the Karnali and landscape of the Tarai follows in Section 2,
Babai Rivers, resulting in infrastructure and helping set the stage for why the fl ood’s impacts,
property damage and loss of life. On August 17, response and recovery unfolded as they did.
2014, the International Federation of the Red Section 3 reviews what happened. The analysis
Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) reported: follows the disaster management cycle –
prevention and risk reduction, structural
“A total of 34,760 families (173,800 people)
measures, mitigation of loss potential, early
have been affected, of which 5,936 families
warning, coping and response, as well as
(29,680 people) are displaced. 53 people
recovery and outlook for the future. Information
confi rmed dead. The fl oods and landslides
in these fi rst three sections was obtained from
have damaged roads, bridges, local markets,
the Nepal Government’s Department of
transport vehicles as well as livestock, crops and
Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), by
daily consumables. More than 1,240 houses
reviewing literature and through a series of
destroyed and 435 houses damaged.”
interviews with local, regional, national and
Despite the size of the fl ood and magnitude international actors.
of damage to physical infrastructure and the
Section 4 summarizes key insights in this study,
environment, the loss of life compared with
and Section 5 identifi es opportunities and
prior fl oods was small.
offers recommendations for action. The paper
This post event review examines two rivers and concludes with a short discussion of the
two districts in the area affected by the fl ood – relevance of these fi ndings at the regional and
the Karnali and Babai Rivers in Kailali and Bardiya global levels in Section 6, putting the fi ndings
districts (Figure 1). Focusing on the disaster from this review in context with other post
management landscape as a whole, including event reviews by Zurich and ISET.
* A list of Nepalese acronyms used in this report can be
found on page 40.
1 Though we consider preparedness to be a component of
risk reduction, we address risk reduction and preparedness
separately because risk reduction tends to focus more on
infrastructural change and preparedness focuses much
more on community or localized awareness and action.
6 Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal
Figure 1: Affected VDCs Legend
Chisapani Towns and villages
Rivers
Kailali Karnali River VDCs in Kailali District
VDCs in Bardiya District
Geruwa River
Bardiya
Tikapur
Narayanpur
RRRaaajjjaaapppuuurrr
Babai River
Map showing Kailali
and Bardiya districts,
the Karnali and Babai
Rivers, and VDC and
0 5 10 20 Gulariya major towns and
Kilometers villages that were
directly affected by
the 2014 fl oods.
(Source: ISET-Nepal
and Practical
Action Nepal)
Overview in the north and the monsoonal alteration of
wet and dry seasons greatly contribute to these
Nepal is located in the central Himalayas, variations (NCVST, 2009).
bordered by the Indian plains to the south and
the high Himalayan mountains to the north. This report focuses on fl ooding in the Tarai
The country is divided into five physiographic plains of the Babai and Karnali Rivers. The Tarai
regions increasing in altitude from south to is an alluvial and fertile plain that occupies about
north (Figure 2): 17 percent of the land area of Nepal and is
primarily devoted to agriculture. In recent
(cid:127) Tarai, a band of agricultural plains lying at decades, the region has experienced signifi cant
elevations of 100 to 500 meters. social and development changes. There have
been increases in the number and quality of
(cid:127) Siwaliks, the foothills of the Himalaya,
roads, improvements to and creation of new
comprised of shallow, erodible soils and rising
irrigation projects, construction of fl ood control
to elevations of 1,500 to 2,000 meters.
embankments, and access to electricity.
(cid:127) Middle Hills, rising to elevations of Connectedness has increased with the increase
3,000 meters. in number of mobile phones and greater access
to motorized transportation. These changes
(cid:127) High Mountains, up to 4,200 meters.
are rapidly expanding access to technology,
(cid:127) High Himalaya, rising to over 8,000 meters. information and markets.
The north-south elevation gradient, an increase Yet vulnerability in the Tarai remains high, and
of more than 8,000 meters over a distance of fl ooding has particularly devastating effects in
200 kilometers, creates a complex, steep and the area. Intense monsoon rainfall and unstable,
fragile topography (NPC, 2010) with extremely steep, rugged slopes in the mountains mean
varied climatic regions ranging from subtropical high rates of soil erosion and landslides; rivers
in the Tarai to alpine in the high Himalayas. The carry a high sediment load. When these rivers
Himalayan massifs from extending east to west enter the broad, fl at plains of the Tarai they
slow, spread out, and deposit sand and gravel.
Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal 7
The beds of many Tarai rivers are rising by 10 to encroachment into fl oodplains are increasing
30 cm per year (Eckholm, 1975; Eckholm, 1976; vulnerability to hazards and destabilizing land
NCVST, 2009). As a result, several communities resources. This has recurring, severe impacts
in the Tarai are at lower elevations than the river. on the lives of people, property and economy
These communities are frequently fl ooded during at large.
rainy seasons (Dhakal, 2013).
Global climate change is likely to further intensify
Besides its hazard-rich natural landscape, these trends. Over the past several decades, the
the socio-political landscape in the Tarai has intensity and magnitude of precipitation events
contributed to low disaster preparedness and in Nepal have increased, as have fl ooding and
management awareness. Effi cient mechanisms landslides associated with these events. Planning
and capacity to deal with disasters are lacking. and land use, disaster preparedness, response
Rapid population growth, weak land use and recovery must be signifi cantly improved to
management, slow economic development, make things better for the people of the Tarai.
deforestation, poor building practices, and
Figure 2: Landscape schematic
Nepal
Karnali
Babai
Legend
Hydro-Met Stations
River Network
Elevation (meters)
Chisapani Below 500 (m)
Birendranagar
500 – 1000 (m)
RRaajjaappuurr 1000 – 2000 (m)
Gulariya
CChheeppaanngg 2000 – 3000 (m)
DDaanngg
Tulsipur 3000 – 4000 (m)
Gorahi 4000 – 5000 (m)
0 1020 40 60 80KKiilloommeetteerrss Above 5000 (m)
The Karnali and Babai River basins and location of the primary hydro-met stations
on those rivers. (Source: ISET-Nepal and Practical Action Nepal)
8 Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal
Section 1
Flooding in the Karnali Basin, Nepal
Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal 9
Floods and landslides are among the most common
hazards in Nepal, causing signifi cant loss of life every year.
Floods also damage and destroy property. Infrastructure,
During extreme fl oods, waters
cut across the oxbows, damaging roads, houses, hydropower plants, irrigation and drinking
structures and fi elds, scouring the water facilities, agricultural lands, ecosystems, and essential
land, and depositing sediments.”
services are all at risk.
Flooding is primarily caused by intense rainfall. Recent catastrophic fl ood events in Nepal
Annual precipitation over the Tarai and Siwalik include the devastating 1993 central Nepal
regions generally ranges from 1,000 to 2,000 fl oods, the 2008 Koshi embankment breach,
mm; annual precipitation in the Middle Hills the 2008 fl oods in western Nepal and the 2013
ranges from 2,000 to 3,000 mm (ICIMOD, 1996). Mahakali disaster, which caused immense losses.
About 80 percent of this precipitation falls On the Karnali River, there have been three major
between June and September during the fl ood events in the past six years. Signifi cant
South Asian monsoon (Kansakar et al., 2004). fl oods occurred in 2009, 2013, and 2014, as
During this period, river fl ows can increase by can be seen in Figure 3. The most comparable
a factor of one hundred or even one thousand,2 earlier fl ood was in 1983.
and fl ooding is ubiquitous in all river basins.
Figure 3: Flood history for the Karnali River
18
16
s)
r
e 14
t
e
m
e ( 12
g
a
t
s
er 10
v
Ri
8
6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
AAnnnnuuaall ppeeaakk ssttaaggee WWaarrnniinngg DDaannggeerr
Flood history for the Karnali River at Chisapani based upon maximum annual river stage in
meters. The warning and danger levels used in the early warning system are shown for
reference (data obtained from DHM).
2 For example, the winter discharge for Karnali is on
average 500 m3/second, whereas the peak monsoon
discharges during fl oods is greater than 15,000 m3/
second. For rain-fed rivers such as the West Rapti, the
winter discharge is 11 m3/second, while the peak
monsoon discharge hovers around 8,000 m3/second.
10 Urgent case for recovery | What we can learn from the August 2014 Karnali River fl oods in Nepal