Risk Management of Non-Renewable Energy Systems

436 Pages·2015·10.38 MB·English

by  Ajit Kumar Verma

Springer Series in Reliability Engineering
Ajit Kumar Verma
Srividya Ajit
Hari Prasad Muruva
Risk
Management of
Non-Renewable
Energy Systems
Springer Series in Reliability Engineering
Series editor
Hoang Pham, Piscataway, USA
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6917
Ajit Kumar Verma Srividya Ajit
(cid:129)
Hari Prasad Muruva
Risk Management
of Non-Renewable Energy
Systems
123
Ajit KumarVerma HariPrasad Muruva
Stord/Haugesund University College Reactor SafetyDivision
Haugesund BARC
Norway Mumbai
India
Srividya Ajit
Stord/Haugesund University College
Haugesund
Norway
ISSN 1614-7839 ISSN 2196-999X (electronic)
SpringerSeries inReliability Engineering
ISBN978-3-319-16061-0 ISBN978-3-319-16062-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16062-7
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015937739
SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
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To Gurus
Sri. Shirdi Sai Baba, Bhagwan Sri Sathya
Sai Baba,
Paramhamsa Swami Sathyananda Saraswati
and
Swami Gambhirananda and Mata
Amrithananda
To Parents
Sri K.P. Verma and Smt. (Late) Sushila
Verma
Sri (Late) B.C.Khanapuri andSmt. Vibhavati
Khanapuri
Sri. M. Venkateswarlu and Smt. M. Uma
Kakshayani
and
Smt. M. Sirisha and Ms. M. Tiana (wife
and d/of Hari Prasad Muruva)
Sri. Pradeep K. Verma and his family
(b/of Ajit Kumar Verma)
Mr. A. Rune Johansen MD, SIMSEA AS,
Haugesund.
Foreword
I am pleased to provide the foreword for this book on Risk Management of
Nonrenewable Energy Systems.This text illustrates theneedfor managingthe risk
of various energy systems by presenting the basic concepts of risk and reliability
and subsequent theoretical developments for modeling complex engineering pas-
sive safety systems. The chapters are self-explanatory with many demonstrative
examples and case studies.
Designing complex engineering systems for achieving high safety levels is a
challenging task in most industries. This is particularly true in the case of nuclear
power plants. Risk analysis plays a major role in this context as it is essential for
both plant safety and for public acceptance. In evaluating the safety of a plant it is
important to consider events that are both internal and external to the plant. An
important consideration in the treatment of external events is the possibility of
disruption of external sources of electricity, cooling water, and other essential
supplies including possible prompt operator action following an extreme external
event. In such a situation, active systems will not function due to the failure of
externalpower.Thereisthereforeaneedtodevelopsystemsthatcanfunctionunder
this scenario. This situation can be achieved or mitigated with the help of passive
systems.
In recent years most advanced nuclear reactors have implemented passive sys-
tems,aimedatimprovedsafetyandavailability,inordertoreducehumanerrorand
active component malfunctions. Passive systems play an important role in inno-
vative reactor safety systems and can result in substantial economic benefits and
simplicity in operation over active systems. The need for a book that addresses
these issues with sufficient rigor without compromising the underlining goal of
succinct presentation and simplicity has long been felt, and this book aims to
achieve this fine balance.
Thebook starts with anintroductiontodifferent sourcesofenergy andexplains
the need for plant risk analysis. It provides a review of basic probability and
statistics essential for understanding risk and reliability concepts. Details on the
different levels of risk analysis in nuclear power plants considering both internal
vii
viii Foreword
andexternal eventsareexplained usingcase studies.Aseparate chapterisdevoted
toreliabilitymodelingofpassivesystemsillustratingdifferentmodelingtechniques
withtheirlimitationsandemphasizingtheneedfordevelopingnewtechniques.The
book also emphasizes time-dependent reliability analysis and risk management of
plants with details on the different tools available for managing risk and its role in
decision making. The book is written in a style that should prove attractive to a
widerangeofresearchersandpracticingengineersandbecomeavaluablereference
and handbook.
This book provides a readable discourse on the fundamentals of plant risk
management and the practical application of these concepts.
Roy Billinton
Distinguished Professor Emeritus
University of Saskatchewan
Preface
Risk,whichdealswiththeconsequencesoffailuresalongwithitslikelihood,plays
an important role in sectors such as chemical and process plants, power plants,
nuclearfacilities, andaerospacewhichcanimpose potential hazards.Risk analysis
is essential for a plant from the safety point of view as well as from the public
acceptance point ofview. Inthis book thebasic conceptsrequired for carryingout
the risk analysis of plants and the methods/techniques/tools required for carrying
out the same is provided with case studies. Hence, the book is organized into the
following chapters.
Chapter 1 introduces different sources of energy and their limitations, power
plants, evolution of the nuclear industry, hazards, history of major accidents, and
the need for risk analysis of plants.
Chapter 2 provides a detailed review of probability and statistics essential for
understanding the risk and reliability analysis concepts and methods that are dis-
cussed in the remaining chapters.
Chapter 3 discusses the risk analysis of nuclear power plants, risk analysis
methodology, level 1, level 2, level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), event
tree analysis, fault tree methods, treatment of common cause failures, different
failure probability models, and parameter estimation using Bayesian methods.
Seismicprobabilisticassessmentofnuclearpowerplantsisdiscussedindetailin
Chap. 4. This chapter provides various aspects of seismic PSA, probabilistic seis-
mic hazard analysis, fragility analysis of structures, components and systems,
accident sequence progression during seismic events, and contribution of seismic
events to risk of a plant.
Currently, most advanced reactors use passive systems to improve safety in the
plant andtoeliminate human interactions,especiallyduringabnormalsituations in
plants.ThebasicconceptsofpassivesystemsarediscussedinChap.5.Thischapter
discusses the need for passive systems reliability, limitations of conventional reli-
ability estimation methods, different methods that exist for reliability estimation of
passive systems, and need for mechanistic modeling approach.
Chapter 6 provides details of time-dependent reliability analysis, types of
loading, degradation mechanisms that cause reduction of strength of material,
ix
x Preface
techniques available for implementing time-dependent reliability, extreme value
theory, stochastic fatigue loading, the concept of out-crossing approach and its
limitations, principles of stress corrosion cracking, and its effect on reliability of
components with time.
Risk management in nuclear and thermal power plants is discussed in Chap. 7,
which includes different tools available for risk management and how it helps in
decision making. The basics of response surface methodology, fuzzy set theory,
simulationtechniques,andstochasticprocesstheoryarediscussedintheAppendix.
This book is useful for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in
nuclear engineering, aerospace engineering, power engineering, industrial engi-
neering,reliabilityandsafetyengineering,systemsengineering,appliedprobability
and statistics, operations research, and earthquake engineering. This book is also
suitable for one-semester graduate courses on Risk Management of Nonrenewable
Energy Systems in all conventional engineering branches like civil, mechanical,
chemical, electrical and electronics, as well as computer science. It will also be a
valuable reference for practicing engineers, managers, and researchers involved in
reliability and safety activities of complex engineering systems.
March 2015 Ajit Kumar Verma
Srividya Ajit
Hari Prasad Muruva