Risk Analysis of Six Potentially Hazardous Industrial Objects in the Rijnmond Area, a Pilot Study: A Report to the Rijnmond Public Authority

808 Pages·1982·20.501 MB·English

by  (auth.)

RISK ANALYSIS
OF SIX POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS INDUSTRIAL
OBJECTS IN THE RIJNMOND
AREA, A PILOT STUDY
RISK ANALYSIS
OF SIX POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS INDUSTRIAL
OBJECTS IN THE RIJNMOND
AREA, A PILOT STUDY
A REPORT TO THE RIJNMOND
PUBLIC AUTHORITY
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
DATA APPEAR ON SEPARATE CARD
ISBN 978-90-481-8371-5 ISBN 978-94-017-2907-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-2907-9
NOTICE
Neither the Rijnmond Public Authority nor any of the organizations
participating in this study accept any responsibility, express
or implied, for any consequences whatsoever arising out of the
use to which the information contained in this report may be put.
All Rights Reserved
Copyright © 1982 by Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland in 1982
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1982
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical
including photocopying, recording or by any informational storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner
INTRODUCTION
This book is a report to the Executive Board of the Rijnmond
Public Authority. The report presents the results of a pilot
study of the risks to the employees in, and the population around
six industrial installations. The installations were selected to
illustrate various materials and technologies present in this
area e.g. toxic, flammable, cryogenic and pressure storage.
The study was performed in close cooperation between authorities,
industry and consultants.
The report consists of 5 parts:
Part I is the report of the Steering Committee, which managed the
whole project. It contains the background, the aims of the study,
conclusions, general comments and recommendations.
Appendices I and 2 give information about the parties involved in
the study and the screening process applied to the collected
safety data respectively.
Part 2, the main report by Cremer and Warner Ltd., presents the
way the risk analysis of the six industrial installations was
performed. All the steps necessary to carry out such an analysis
are presented and discussed. The final results are given in
tables showing the average number of fatalities per year both for
employees and the population.
Appendices I to VII contain the calculation models used (dischar
ge rates, dispersion, combustion, etc.).
Appendices VII to X give a historical review of incidents, fai
lure rate data and meteorological data respectively.
Appendix XII gives the final results of the consequence analyses
and appendix XIII presents the fault trees and derivation of
failure rates.
Appendix XIV gives information about the population distribution
in the Rijnmond area.
Industrial comments on Part 2 can be found in Part 5.
Part 3 is a supplementary study by Cremer and Warner Ltd.
Two other ways of presenting risks (besides the afore-mentioned
tables) are given, namely cumulative frequency curves and iso
risk lines. Appendices I and II contain examples of computer
print-outs necessary to draw the figures.
v
vi INTRODUCTION
Part 4 is a counterexpertise by Battelle Institut e.V. of the
calculation methods used by Cremer and Warner Ltd.
Battelle give their opinion on the models used and present two
case calculations with their own models which are discussed in
their report.
Part 5 contains the detailed comments by the members of the
Steering Committee on the models used and the assumptions.
Various views are presented, to which references have been made
in the text of Part 2, 3 and 4.
Appendix A is a paper discussing the behaviour of ammonia in the
event of a spillage.
Appendix B is a critical review by Science Applications Inc. of
the models used and the assumptions. This review was prepared
for Oxirane Chemie (Nederland) v.o.f. It also contains an analy
sis of van Ulden's cloud experiment.
These five parts indicate the state of the art of risk assessment
at the time the studies were carried out without hiding the gaps
in the knowledge or the weak spots in the assumptions and the
calculation models.
Since the completion of the main parts (Parts 2, 3, 4 and most of
Part 5) of the study in 1979, and the Steering Committee report
(Part I) in 1980, new developments in the field of physical mo
delling as well as research may well have occurred.
Each Part has its own pagination, used for cross-references,
but there is also a continous pagination. The Index refers to the
latter one.
Although as much care as possible has been given to composing
this book, some obscurities may have remained, possibly also
caused by the translation of certain passages into the English
language.
Any comments on the book can be sent to:
Central Environmental Control Agency Rijnmond,
's-Gravelandseweg 565,
3119 XT Schiedam,
The Netherlands.
H.G.Roodbol,
Central Environmental Control
Agency Rijnmond.
November 1981
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction v
PART 1. REPORT OF THE COVO STEERING COMMITTEE
1. Introduction 1- 3/ 3
2. The purpose of the study 1- 4/ 4
3. The set up and organisation of the study 1- 5/ 5
4. The different steps of the analysis 1- 7 I 7
5. Evaluation, conclusions and recommendations 1-13/13
Appendix 1. Organisations involved with this study 1-19/19
Appendix 2. The security screening process used in
this report 1-23/23
PART 2. ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL RISKS IN THE
RIJNMOND AREA, FINAL REPORT BY CREMER
AND WARNER LTD.
1.0. SUMMARY AND MAIN CONCLUSIONS 2- 3 I 29
1.1. Critical Evaluation of the Effectiveness
of Hazard Analysis Methods used in this
Project 2- 3/29
1.1.1. Acquisition of Process and Other
Information 2- 4/30
1.1.2. Identification of Failure Cases 2- 5 /31
1.1.3. Calculation of Consequences 2- 5/31
1.1.4. Calculation of Frequencies 2- 6/32
1.1.5. Methods of Overall Assessment 2- 6/32
1.1.6. Methods for Assessing Accuracy 2- 7 I 33
1.1.7. Conclusions 2- 7 I 33
1.2. Areas for Future Development 2- 8/34
2.0. INTRODUCTION 2- 9 I 35
2. 1. Background to the Study 2-10 I 36
2.2. Objectives of the Study 2-11 I 37
2.3. Scope of Work 2-13 I 39
2.4. Acknowledgements 2-14140
viii TABLE OF CONTENTS
3.0. GENERAL APPROACH TO THE PRESENT INVESTIGATION 2-15/41
3.1. The Nature of Chemical Hazards and
Methods of Risk Assessment 2-15/41
3.2. Identification of Failure Cases 2-16 I 42
3.3. Quantification of Magnitude of Hazard 2-18144
3.3.1. Calculation of Consequences 2-18/44
3.3.2. Calculation of Frequencies 2-18/44
3.3.3. Accuracy and Uncertainty 2-19 I 45
3.3.4. Assessment of Overall Impact 2-22 I 48
4. PHYSICAL MODELS IN CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT 2-24 I 50
4.0. Objectives of the Consequence Analysis
Models 2-24 I 50
4.1. Discharge Rates 2-25 I 51
4.2. Boil Off and Evaporation of Liquids 2-25 I 51
4.3. Dispersion of Vapour and Aerosol Clouds
in the Atmosphere 2-27153
4.3.1. Types of Cloud 2-27 I 53
4.4. Combustion of Flammable Materials 2-30 I 56
4.4.1. Fires at Source 2-31 I 57
4.4.1.1. Pool Fires 2-31/57
4.4.1.2. Bleves and Fireballs 2-32 I 58
4.4.2. Combustion of Dispersed Vapour Clouds 2-33/59
4.4.2.1. Ignition Sources 2-33/59
4.4.2.2. Flash Fires 2-34/60
4.4.2.3. Explosion 2-34/60
4.5. Toxic Criteria 2-35 I 61
4.6. Accuracy/Uncertainty in Physical Models 2-37 I 63
5.0. METHODS FOR ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES 2-39 I 65
5.1. General Approach 2-39 I 65
5.2. Fault-Tree Analysis of Systems 2-40 I 66
5.3. Use of Historical Failure Rate Data 2-43 I 69
5.4. Event Probability Methods in Consequence
Analysis 2-44 I 70
5.4.1. Factors that Influence the Release 2-45 I 71
5.4.2. Factors that Influence Dispersion 2-45171
5.4.3. Factors that Influence Final Consequences 2-45 I 71
5.4.4. Results of Event Tree Analyses 2-46 I 72
5.5. Accuracy/Uncertainty 2-46/72
6.0. HAZARD ANALYSIS OF STUDY OBJECTS 2-48 I 74
6.0.1. The Study Object 2-48 I 74
6.0.2. Identification of Unwanted Events 2-50 I 76
6.0.3. Consequences Analysis 2-51/ 77
6.0.4. Probability of Release 2-52/78
6.0.5. Impact Analysis 2-53 I 79
6.0.6. Remedial Measures 2-53 I 79
6.0.7. Historical Review 2-54 I so
TABLE OF CONTENTS ix
6.1. ACRYLONITRILE STORAGE 2- 55 I 81
6.1.1. Description of the Installation and
Hazards of Acrylonitrile 2- 56/ 82
6.1.1.1. General Description of the Installation 2- 56/ 82
6.1.1.2. Description of the ACN Storage Tank 2- 56/ 82
6.1.1.3. ACN Transfer Systems 2.- 58/ 84
6.1.1.4. Operational Factors 2- 59/ 85
6.1.1.5. Emergency Services and Procedures 2- 60 I 86
6.1.1.6. Hazards of Acrylonitrile (ACN) 2- 61/ 87
6.1.2. Identification of Unwanted Events 2- 62/ 88
6.1.3. Consequence Analysis 2- 65/ 91
6.1.3.1. Consequence Results 2- 67 I 93
6.1.4. Probability Analysis 2- 10 I 96
6.1.4.1. Failure Rate Data 2- 711 97
6.1.4.2. Event Trees 2- 741100
6.1.4.3. Event Data 2- 741100
6.1.5. Overall Impact Assessment 2- 751101
6.1.6. Remedial Measures 2- 801106
6.1.6.1. Possible Measures to Reduce Specific
Hazards 2- 80/106
6.1.6.2. Miscellaneous Improvements 2- 81/107
6.1.6.3. Effect of Remedial Measures 2- 82/108
6.1. 7. Historical Review 2- 83/109
6.2. AMMONIA STORAGE 2- 85 1111
6.2.1. Description of the Installation 2- 851111
6.2.2. Identification of Unwanted Events 2-87/113
6.2.3. Consequence Analysis 2- 891115
6.2.3.1. Results of Consequence Analysis 2- 89/115
6.2.4. Probability Analysis 2- 961122
6.2.4.1. Fault Trees 2- 961122
6.2.4.2. Event Trees 2- 99/125
6.2.4.3. Event Data 2- 991125
6.2.5. Overall Impact Assessment 2-102/128
6.2.6. Remedial Measures 2-104/130
6.2.6.1. Discussion of the Effect of a Bundwall
for the Sphere 2-104/130
6.2.6.2. Miscellaneous Suggested Actions 2-105/131
6.2. 7. Historical Review 2-1061132
Tables 2-107/133
6.3. CHLORINE STORAGE (AKZO) 2-125 1 151
6.3.1. The Pressure Storage of Liquid Chlorine
at Ambient Temperatures - The Study Object 2-125 1 151
6.3.1.1. Stock Tank Operation 2-1271 153
6.3.1.2. Stock Tank Bund 2-127 I 153
6.3.1.3. Hypochlorite Production/Chlorine
Destruction Unit 2-127 /153
6.3.1.4. Maintenance and Inspection 2-128/154
6.3.2. Identification of Unwanted Events 2-128/154
X TABLE OF CONTENTS
6.3.3. Consequence Analysis 2-1301156
6.3.3.1. Results 2-143 1 169
6.3.4. Frequency Analysis 2-144 I 170
6.3.4.1. Failure Rate Data 2-1441170
6.3.5. Overall Impact Assessment 2-1471173
6.3.6. Remedial Measures 2-1541180
6.3.6.1. Hypothetical Remedial Measure -
Installation of Non-Return and Excess
Flow Valves 2-154 I 180
6.3.6.2. General Points 2-155/181
6.3. 7. Historical Review of Chlorine Incidents 2-155/181
6.4. THE GASUNIE LNG PEAK SHAVING STORAGE PLANT 2-1571183
6.4.1. The LNG Tanks and Connected Equipment.
The Study Object 2-158/184
6.4.2. Unwanted Events 2-161 I 187
6.4.3. Consequence Analysis 2-163/189
6.4.3.1. Results 2-1641190
6.4.4. Probability Analysis 2-167 /193
6.4.4.1. Failure Rate Data 2-168/194
6.4.4.2. Fault Tree 2-1681194
6.4.4.3. Probability of Unwanted Events 2-169 I 195
6.4.4.4. Event Tree 2-170/196
6.4.5. Overall Impact Assessment 2-1711197
6.4.6. Remedial Measures 2-173 I 199
6.4.6.1. Liquid on Tank Roof 2-173/199
6.4.6.2. Jet into Annular Space 2-173 I 199
6.4.6.3. Other Failure Cases 2-174/200
6.4.6.4. Effects of Remedial Measures 2-174/200
6.4. 7. Historical Review 2-174 I 200
6.5. PROPYLENE STORAGE
2-176 I 203
6.5 .1. Description of the Installation 2-176 I 202
6.5.2. Identification of Unwanted Events 2-177/203
6.5.3. Consequences Analysis 2-179 I 205
6.5.4. Probability Analysis 2-183 I 209
6.5 .4.1. Fault Trees 2-183 1209
6.5.4.2. Failure Rate Data 2-183 1209
6.5.4.3. Event Trees 2-1841210
6.5.4.4. Event Data 2-185 I 211
6.5.5. Overall Impact Assessment 2-186 I 212
6.5.6. Remedial Measures 2-187 I 213
6.5.6.1. Main Remedial Measure - Provision of
Remote Operated Valves 2-187 I 213
6.5.6.2. Miscellaneous Secondary Remedial Measures 2-1931219
6.5.7. Historical Review 2-197 I 223
6.5.8. Discussion of Results 2-197 I 223
6.6. SHELL HYDRODESULPHURISER 2-199 I 225
6.6.1. DEA Regenerator - The Study Object 2-199 I 225