Risk Analysis Based on Data and Crisis Response Beyond Knowledge-Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (RACR 2019), October 15-19, 2019, Athens, Greece

709 Pages·2019·32.617 MB·\709

by  Chongfu Huang (Editor), Zoe S. Nivolianitou (Editor)

RISKANALYSISBASEDONDATAANDCRISISRESPONSEBEYOND
KNOWLEDGE

PROCEEDINGSOFTHE7THINTERNATIONALCONFERENCEONRISKANALYSISAND
CRISISRESPONSE(RACR2019),ATHENS,GREECE,15-19OCTOBER2019
Risk Analysis Based on Data and
Crisis Response Beyond
Knowledge
Editors
ChongfuHuang
AcademyofDisasterReductionandEmergencyManagement,BeijingNormalUniversity,
Beijing,China
ZoeNivolianitou
InstituteofNuclear&RadiologicalSciencesandTechnology,Energy&Safety,NationalCenter
ofScientificResearch“Demokritos”,Athens,Greece
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DOI:https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429286346
RiskAnalysisBasedonDataandCrisisResponseBeyondKnowledge–Huang&Nivolianitou(eds)
©2020Taylor&FrancisGroup,London,ISBN978-0-367-25146-8
Table of contents
Preface xi
Organization xiii
Thevalidityofgeospatialinformationdiffusion 1
C.Huang&Y.Huang
Blackswansanddragons 9
B.Ale,D.Hartford&D.Slater
RiskanalysisandpreliminarycountermeasuresofearthquakedisastersinYunnanregion 16
S.Qiao,A.Liu,X.Chen,Z.Li,C.Li&T.Li
Source-attributedQALYslost,inducedbyPM -boundPAHsinBeijing,basedonaPMF
2.5
model 23
H.Cao,S.Chao,J.Liu,Y.Chen&X.Liu
RiskgovernancechallengesintheGreeksearchandrescueregion 29
A.Liaropoulos,K.Sapountzaki&Z.Nivolianitou
Mutualinformation-basedapproachforvinecopulaselectionforhydrologicaldependence
modeling 35
L.Ni,D.Wang&J.Wu
Influencefactorsanalysisoftornado-destroyedhousesinFuning,Jiangsu,China 42
J.Gao,P.Qiao,G.Zhai&D.Cheng
Evaluationofecologicalcivilizationconstructionlevelofprefecture-levelcitiesinGuizhou
basedongreyrelationalprojectionmethod 48
X.Feng&M.Zhang
ResearchonChina’smeteorologicaldisasterriskmanagementsystemmechanismand
associatedcountermeasures 54
K.Xing,D.Chen&S.Guo
Quantitativeanalysisandriskassessmentofterroristattacks 61
M.Hong,R.Zhang,J.Ge,M.Li&L.Zhao
Spatialandtemporalpatterns,changeandriskanalysisofmeteorologicaldisastersinEast
China 67
J.Shi,L.Cui,Z.Shen,H.Yang&J.Tan
Aneweconomiclossassessmentsystemforurbansevererainfallandfloodingdisasters 73
X.Wu,Y.Kuai,G.Wei&J.Guo
Assessingthejointdependenceofair-watertemperatureanddischarge-watertemperaturein
themiddlereachofYangtzeRiverusingPOME-copula 79
Y.Tao,Y.Wang&D.Wang
Equitymeasurementofspatiallayoutforemergencyshelterswithconsiderationoftheneeds
ofvulnerablepopulations 86
Q.Li,J.Guo,X.Tan&J.Chen
v
Assessmentforcurrent-carryingcapacityofthepowergridoverSouthHebeiProvinceand
itsriskmanagement 93
H.Li,K.Xing&Y.Jing
Theanalysisofdata-basedcharacteristicsandriskonstableweatherduringtheheating
seasoninsouth-centralHebeiProvince 99
Y.Jing,H.Li,K.Xing&J.Zhang
Difficultiesandcountermeasuresofrisk-basedurbanpublicsafetyassessmentsforhigh-
impactweather 106
K.Xing,D.Chen&S.Guo
StudyonecologicalriskofmountaindisastersinNanlingnaturereserve 113
Q.Gong,L.Yang,Y.Li&J.Zhang
TemporalandspatialdynamiccharacteristicsanalysisofInnerMongoliagrasslandfire 125
Duwala,Yushan,G.Liu,H.Zhang,H.Liu&Wunitu
Impactfactorselectionandnonlinearassessmentmodelforextremedisasterlossescausedby
typhoons 132
H.Liu,Q.Xu&J.Chen
Meteorologicalconditionsanalysisofroadtrafficaccidentsandriskmanagementbasedon
bigdata 141
M.Yang&K.Xing
Thecombinedeffectofheavyrainandtopographyonthedivisionofrainstormandflood
disasterriskinHebeiProvince 148
J.Zhang,L.Wu,R.Yang,K.Xing,X.Yang,J.Wei&G.Ma
Apeer-to-peerlendingcreditriskpredictionmethod:Applicationofbalancedrelative
marginmachine 156
B.Niu,J.Ren&X.Li
Optimalcatastrophicrisksharingforgovernmentboundary:Acasestudyfromeggprice
insuranceinBeijing 163
L.Xu,B.Wang&Q.Geng
Studyonintegratedlossassessmentofearthquake-flooddisasterinYunnanProvincebased
ondynamicspatialpanel 174
S.Du,Y.Xue,X.Ji,X.Xie,C.Xue&H.Wang
Assessmentoffinancialagglomerationlevelofprefecture-levelcitiesinGuizhoubasedon
InternetBigData 182
X.Huan&M.Zhang
AnalysisontemporalandspatialvariationofdroughtinNortheastChinabasedonSPEI
andDSI 189
W.Wang,L.Sun&Z.Pei
APythonapproachtocollectingdisasterdatafortheInternetofIntelligences 196
W.Tian&C.Huang
Theimpactofgroundmotionpredictionequationsonestimatinginsurancelossesinthe
EQCatearthquakecatastrophemodel 203
Z.Xiong,Z.Dai&X.Li
Massnotificationforpublicsafety:Currentstatusandtechnicalchallenges 211
C.Asiminidis,S.Kontogiannis,G.Kokkonis,N.Zinas&C.Papadopoulos
vi
3-Dsimulationandvisualizationofdiversionfloodriskinsmallandmedium-sizedflood
storagepolder:AcasestudyofLinanfloodstoragepolderinDongtingLakeArea,China 217
D.Mao,C.Feng&R.Guo
HumanhealthriskassessmentviagroundwaterDNAPLsmigrationmodel 224
Y.Pan,X.Zeng,J.Wu&D.Wang
Gephinetworkanalysismethodfordeterminingassessmentindexesofextremehigh
temperatureweatherriskaboutelectricpowersystem—acasestudyofBeijingCity 230
C.Shen,W.Zhu,L.Xu,X.Tang,J.Zheng&S.Yuan
RiskfactorsanalysisforfallsamongtheurbanelderlyinBeijing,China 236
Q.Zhang,W.Zhu&L.Guo
Globalheatwavehazards,consideringthehumidityeffectsundergreenhousegasemission
scenarios 242
N.Li,X.Chen&W.Gu
Nonstationaryriskanalysisofextremerainfallevents 246
P.Xu&D.Wang
Floodriskanalysisbasedonthecopulamethod 251
P.Xu&D.Wang
Anapproachtomeasureinteractioninprecipitationsystemunderchangingenvironment 257
W.Wang,D.Wang&Y.Wang
Streamflowforecastingusinglongshort-termmemorynetwork 264
L.Ni,D.Wang&J.Wu
HydrometricnetworkdesignbasedonCopulaandentropy 270
W.Wang,D.Wang&Y.Wang
ACopulaapproachformulti-dimensionalecologicalriskassessmentofpolycyclicaromatic
hydrocarbonsinthesurfacesedimentsofTaihuLake 278
W.Liu&D.Wang
ReturnperiodanalysisforextremerainfallinthewesternregionoftheTaihuLakeBasin 285
Y.Tao,Y.Wang,D.Wang&D.Sheng
Entropybasedmulti-criteriaevaluationforrainfallmonitoringnetworksunderseasonal
effect 292
H.Li,D.Wang&Y.Wang
Developingatransinformationbasedmulti-criteriaoptimizationframeworkforrainfall
monitoringnetworks 298
H.Li,D.Wang&Y.Wang
Anaturalenvironmentriskassessmentforshipnavigationonthe21st-centuryMaritimeSilk
Road 305
X.Li,R.Zhang,Y.Lu,J.Wang,M.Hong&L.Yang
Correlationstudyofsafetyandemergencymanagementinformationsystemsbasedonsocial
networkanalysis 313
Y.Zhou,X.Ji,A.Wu,F.Yu,Y.Han,L.Fang&Y.Zhang
Researchonriskperceptionoftourismutilizationofintangibleculturalheritage—tourist
perspectives 319
J.Wang,F.Wen&D.Fang
vii
Farmers’riskperceptionanditsimpactonclimatechangeadaptationbehavior 326
J.Jin,R.He,X.Wan,F.Kuang,J.Ning,Y.Wang&X.Hu
Riskassessmentofthetransformfromoldindustrialplantareaintothecreativeindustrial
parks 332
Q.Wu,M.Sun&L.Wang
HowtodefineandmanagestakeholdersinseauselicensinginChina 339
S.Liu&Z.Wang
Lackofcoordinationincommunicationsbetweenscientificsocietyandauthoritiesduring
earthquakes:CasestudyofL’Aquila,Italy 344
P.Kerpelis&A.Karamanou
SwarmofUAVsasanemergencyresponsetechnology 353
I.Gkotsis,A.-C.Kousouraki,G.Eftychidis,P.Kolios&M.Terzi
DevelopmentofagriculturalriskmanagementsysteminJapanandenlightenmenttoChina 360
Y.Wang&S.Zhao
Stakeholders’engagementinemergencymanagement–anoverviewfromtheDanish
offshorewindsector 370
D.Ahsan&S.Pedersen
Anempiricalstudyonriskperceptionofhazardouschemicals 375
T.Liu,J.Dong,Y.Chen&H.Zhang
ResearchontheevaluationofhoteloperationriskinmountainscenicresortsbasedonAHP
andfuzzycomprehensiveevaluation 382
Y.He
EffectsofmajorhurricanesinAtlanticCanadafrom2003to2018 390
L.S.Almeida,F.Goerlandt&R.Pelot
Studyonsystemtestingapproach-basedriskevaluationofsubseatree 397
X.Yuan,B.Cai&G.Chen
RiskofphotovoltaicsystemsonbuildingfiresafetyinChina 404
Y.Mu,J.Li,C.Ren,W.Zhang&X.Zhang
Analysisofthedangerousconsequencesofstoringpentaneinpolyurethanefoamenterprises 410
Y.Wang,J.Li,D.Lv,N.Jiang&Y.Zhang
Afuzzyextensiontotherisksituationawarenessprovisionindicator(RiskSOAP) 417
A.Zeleskidis&I.M.Dokas
Risk-basedfaultassessmentandpriorityanalysisforsafetymanagementinindustrial
systems 424
G.Song,F.Khan&N.Paltrinieri
Poolfireofliquefiednaturalgas 434
M.Carboni,V.Cozzani,T.Iannaccone,G.Pio&E.Salzano
Failureanalysisofgaspipelinesundersurfaceload 441
Y.Li&J.Shuai
Thedevelopmenttrendsincatastrophesacrosstheworld 449
X.Pan,C.Pu&S.Peng
ImprovementofriskcommunicationintheInternetofIntelligences 458
R.Wang&C.Huang
viii
AnapproachtocomplythegeospatialinformationdiffusionfillingingapunitsinInternetof
intelligencesforemergencyrescue 464
Y.Yin&C.Huang
ThetoxiceffectoftwotypesofnanoparticlesonPseudourostylacristata 471
X.Zhao,Z.Gong,Y.Lv,X.Gao,X.Fan&B.Ni
Riskanalysisoflarge-scalegasolinespillfirebasedonexperimentandnumericalsimulation 481
Y.Zhang,C.Ren,J.Li,J.Wang&T.Xue
Analysisofevolutionlawforaviationemergencyrescueprocessesafterearthquakes 488
X.Zhang,H.Chi&X.Hu
Newapproachofformingtheconfinementbarrierbyphenolicfoamfor“stopping”the
liquidchemicalspillsandflowingfires 496
N.Jiang,C.Ren,Y.Sun,J.Li,D.Lv,Y.Zhang&Y.Mu
ResearchonthecharacteristicsofroadtransportationofhazardouschemicalsinChina 504
R.Zhao,R.Yu,J.Zhao,X.Ji&C.Li
ReviewofriskassessmentguidelinesforLNGshipbunkering 511
O.Aneziris,I.Koromila&Z.Nivolianitou
Developingarisk-basedmethodforpredictingtheseverityoffireaccidentsinroadtunnels 518
P.Ntzeremes,K.Kirytopoulos&V.Leopoulos
Analysisandpreventioncountermeasuresofsafetyaccidentsincateringindustrybasedon
situationalfactors 526
Y.Han,X.Ji,F.Yu,Y.Zhou,Y.Liu,C.Zhang&T.Chen
Occupationalsafetystatusandcountermeasuresbasedoncasualtyaccidentsfrom2012to
2018inBeijing 535
F.Yu,X.Ji,A.Wu,M.Wen&Y.Liu
ResponseofParameciumcaudatumtothestressoftetracyclineandtetracycline
hydrochloride 542
M.Du,Y.Zhao,X.Wang,W.Zheng,C.Ge,Y.Chen&N.Ren
Riskanalysisofseismichazardcorrelationbetweennuclearpowerplants 550
Q.Wu
Uncertaintyresearchforanear-fieldgroundmotionnumericalsimulationoftheTonghai
earthquake 557
Z.Li,S.Qiao,X.Chen,Q.Wu&C.Li
TheexperiencesofMexicoCityresidentsduringtwostrongearthquakesin2017 566
J.Santos-Reyes&T.Gouzeva
RupturedirectionstudyoftwoTonghaiMs5.0earthquakesonAugust13and14,2018 573
X.Chen,Q.Luo,M.Gao,S.Qiao,S.Li&J.Cui
ResearchonriskassessmentmethodsofurbandisasterchainduringtheBeijingWinter
Olympics 581
M.Liu,W.Zhu,J.Zheng&Q.You
Analysisoffactorsaffectingconstructionsafetymanagementofsteelstructures 587
A.Lu,Q.Wu,N.Li&X.Hu
UnsafebehaviorcausationanalysisofhazardouschemicalsaccidentsbasedonBN-HFACs
method 594
X.Li&T.Liu
ix